kEiThZ
Superstar
I take back my praise for the US, UK and Poland. Russia is going all out to be Ukraine's number one weapons supplier:
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- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
Bjays92
Senior Member
Fireworks in Moscow yesterday, Putin and Macron phone call today about ZNPP, Kadyrov criticizing Russian leadership for not being aware of the situation on the ground. Putin is clearly out of his depth. He's froze completely.
Northern Light
Superstar
I have nothing against Poland; its simply a discussion of geo-political power projection over time.
Worth noting though, the near term projection by 2030 is a fall of 3M or 10% of population.
That's the equivalent of the US losing 34M in 8 years.
afransen
Senior Member
At some point when Canada surpasses all the European countries in population and GDP we need to start acting like a real country instead of a coattail rider.
Northern Light
Superstar
I find that 'real country' terminology rather too much. I don't see why we can't keep policy debates to discussing factually what it is nations do or don't do, rather that adding embellished characterizations.'
Northern Light
Superstar
Now back to the news................
I've been playing with some of the advanced satellite imagery available to the general public.
Its not as high resolution or as current as those available to the military, but can still be quite revelatory.
I'll share one example.
NASA has an imagery program for tracking forest fires. It picks up the heat signature in satellite images, current to 24 hours.
Of course, explosions, bombings and associated fires leave a fairly similar signature.
This is not necessarily indicative where troops are; and in fact, based on best sources, they aren't yet where I'm showing you;.........
However, it looks like the Ukrainians are lighting up the town of Alchevsk.
Image:
A look at the same image w/topo rather than streets:
While it is always possible that this is unrelated to the war fire...........that seems highly improbable.
The large 'fire' in the lower left appears to be a quarry if one looks at it on Google.
I would surmise (but don't know) that munitions were stored there, this would be logical.
The Ukrainians appear to be within HIMARS range, so take that for what you will.
I can confirm an attack on a Russian munitions dump in that area in the last 72 hours.
Uncorroborated reports suggest Russians are exiting this area.
I've been playing with some of the advanced satellite imagery available to the general public.
Its not as high resolution or as current as those available to the military, but can still be quite revelatory.
I'll share one example.
NASA has an imagery program for tracking forest fires. It picks up the heat signature in satellite images, current to 24 hours.
Of course, explosions, bombings and associated fires leave a fairly similar signature.
This is not necessarily indicative where troops are; and in fact, based on best sources, they aren't yet where I'm showing you;.........
However, it looks like the Ukrainians are lighting up the town of Alchevsk.
Image:
A look at the same image w/topo rather than streets:
While it is always possible that this is unrelated to the war fire...........that seems highly improbable.
The large 'fire' in the lower left appears to be a quarry if one looks at it on Google.
I would surmise (but don't know) that munitions were stored there, this would be logical.
The Ukrainians appear to be within HIMARS range, so take that for what you will.
I can confirm an attack on a Russian munitions dump in that area in the last 72 hours.
Uncorroborated reports suggest Russians are exiting this area.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The Russians do seem to be holding strong in Kherson. Putin’s Plan G?
medium.com
Ukraine War, 11 September 2022; a Review
Don’t want to spoil the party, but think it’s time for some serious review of the situation in Ukraine.
medium.com
Northern Light
Superstar
The Russians do seem to be holding strong in Kherson. Putin’s Plan G?
Ukraine War, 11 September 2022; a Review
Don’t want to spoil the party, but think it’s time for some serious review of the situation in Ukraine.
Kherson is definitely more fortified than the positions we've seen runover the last few days in that Thunder Run....
That said, Russian supply lines are pretty severely impaired.
I have no idea how well stocked the Kherson troops are..........but if they start running low..........I'm not sure how quickly or ably they can be supplied.
Others may have more detailed insight.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Yeah....I don't buy this.
It's clear in hindsight what happened. Kherson was not a real counteroffensive. It was a fixing action. The Ukrainians wanted to draw a ton of the best Russian troops. The Russians more than obliged. This then gave the Ukrainian a great opportunity to trap them there by blowing the bridges. Having locked those Russians there, the Ukrainians now faced substantially weaker forces in the East. They massed and cut through like a hot knife through butter.
The Ukrainians have zero desire to fight in the urban areas. To avoid both military and civilian casualties. And damage to infrastructure. So they are going to bleed and starve the Russians slowly. Everyday they tighten the noose just a little. Eventually, when they are low on food, fuel and ammo, they will collapse, just like Kharkiv.
Some basic operational ideas. On offence, the biggest logistics consideration is fuel. You usually run out of fuel before food and ammo. On defence, the biggest logistics consideration is ammunition. Second to that is food. For example, the 20 000 troops in Kherson need 2lbs of food per person per day. That alone is 40 000 lbs of cargo. Or 20 truckloads. A single artillery gun is firing at least 100 rounds and each of those are ballpark 100 lbs. So 10 000 lbs of ammo per gun. Or 5 truckloads.
They've got triple digit numbers of artillery in Kherson to feed. Then there's several pounds of ammunition per person per day. There's the need for spare parts, medical supplies, etc. And as winter sets in, they need fuel to stay warm (Western armoured vehicles come with auxiliary power units to avoid running the main engines for heat or electrical power). Add it all up and they need high triple digit number of trucks per day to support that force. And all of this has to either be transported over degraded bridges that can't support the weight of trucks (shift the load by vans or by hand across the bridge), or use pontoon bridges or ferry barges that can easily be targeted. Obviously they can't do that for several hundred trucks worth per day. So they will slowly but surely dwindle down what they have.
And while they are dwindling down, the Ukrainians have captured enough armour and ammo and fuel to outfit several brigades, if not a full division. One way or another, the Russians in Kherson will be facing better equipped opponents in a few weeks.
Kherson is not a question of if. At this point, it's a question of when. Even the Russians know this. That's why they moved all the commanders across the river.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Russia is attempting to target Ukrainian civilians in response.
DSC
Superstar
CNN Reports: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-11-22/index.html
In a statement Sunday, the Ukrainian military's general staff said that Russian forces had abandoned the town of Svatove in Luhansk region, a town that until Saturday was still 40 kilometers (25 miles) beyond the known front line of the Ukrainian advance.
Svatove has been an important hub on Russian resupply routes to the front lines further south - along the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
"The occupiers have abandoned Svatove in Luhansk region," the general staff's office said in a Facebook post. "They rushed away in four Kamaz trucks, twenty Tigr AVs [armored vehicles] and stole over 20 cars of local residents."
CNN cannot independently verify the Ukrainian account.
The general staff's office also claimed that "as a result of the successful counteroffensive of our troops in the Kharkiv direction, the Russian troops frantically leave their positions and flee with the loot deep into the temporarily occupied territories or into the territory of the Russian Federation."
It referred to one alleged episode in which, it said "150 service members of the armed forces of the Russian Federation left in a convoy from Borshchova and Artemivka of the Kharkiv region on two buses, one truck and 19 stolen cars."
Borshchova is to the north of Kharkiv city, just a few kilometers from Ukraine's border with Russia.
Map from: https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-200-summary/
In a statement Sunday, the Ukrainian military's general staff said that Russian forces had abandoned the town of Svatove in Luhansk region, a town that until Saturday was still 40 kilometers (25 miles) beyond the known front line of the Ukrainian advance.
Svatove has been an important hub on Russian resupply routes to the front lines further south - along the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
"The occupiers have abandoned Svatove in Luhansk region," the general staff's office said in a Facebook post. "They rushed away in four Kamaz trucks, twenty Tigr AVs [armored vehicles] and stole over 20 cars of local residents."
CNN cannot independently verify the Ukrainian account.
The general staff's office also claimed that "as a result of the successful counteroffensive of our troops in the Kharkiv direction, the Russian troops frantically leave their positions and flee with the loot deep into the temporarily occupied territories or into the territory of the Russian Federation."
It referred to one alleged episode in which, it said "150 service members of the armed forces of the Russian Federation left in a convoy from Borshchova and Artemivka of the Kharkiv region on two buses, one truck and 19 stolen cars."
Borshchova is to the north of Kharkiv city, just a few kilometers from Ukraine's border with Russia.
Map from: https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-200-summary/
kEiThZ
Superstar
The real question is what happens when the Russians offer to withdraw to pre-Feb borders eventually. Lots of Western appeasers will want pressure on Ukraine to take that deal.
Richard White
Senior Member
I don't see Ukraine taking any deal that involves Russian troops staying in the Donbas or Crimea.
MisterF
Senior Member
I pictured the Oprah meme with tanks and sure enough, it exists.
https://makeameme.org/meme/you-get-a-5b65befdcb
Admiral Beez
Superstar
If Ukraine wants Crimea they’ll need to land forces there before the Russians make any offers. Start by cutting that bridge in the east (why hasn’t that been done yet?). Find some ro-ro ferries or other subterfuge to land a sizeable force that, now that the BSF has left the field, can be supplied oversea from Odessa.