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rdaner

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http://metronews.ca/voices/ford-for-toronto/338316/boomtown-toronto-trinity-spadina-growth/

If Trinity-Spadina, the Toronto riding represented by NDP MP Olivia Chow, stood as its own municipality, it would be the third fastest-growing municipality in Ontario—growing faster even than the sprawl factories in Brampton and Vaughan.

According to recent census figures by Statistics Canada, nearly 30,000 new residents moved into the 18.6 km² area of downtown Toronto between 2006 and 2011, making for a staggering 25.5% increase in population in just five years.To put that into perspective: that means about 3% of the land area in Toronto accounted for more than 26% of the city’s recent population growth.

In 2001, Trinity-Spadina was the third smallest federal riding in Toronto. In 2006, it was the fifth largest. In 2011, it became the biggest. (There was some minor redrawing of the riding’s borders during that time, but the impact on population was pretty minimal.)

These stats really aren’t too surprising when you consider the insane number of cranes that crowd Toronto’s skyline. But the numbers do go a long way toward contextualizing the changing face of our city and the impact of the prolonged condo boom. While Toronto’s suburbs still represent a staid majority, the trend toward downtown living is kind of hard to ignore. People are putting a premium on dense, walkable neighbourhoods like never before.

It’s time more politicians started to acknowledge that.

ridings_map_toronto-popchange.png




Most interesting to me is that the epicentre of the condo boom in Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Centre (up 7%) is bordered by neighbourhoods that have seen limited or no population growth. Even Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York, which feature to-die-for real estate markets, aren’t showing huge population growth.

It’s no mystery as to why. As prices rise and gentrification gentrifies, multi-unit houses that were once home to large working-class families have been snatched up and renovated for a million-dollar market of smaller families or no-kids couples. At the same time, developers have had a hard time selling new project proposals with residents in these areas—even low- and mid-rise development provoke calamity.

Beyond that, the anemic growth in the city’s northern corners only pours more water on some of the fiery pro-subway arguments made during council’s recent transit debate. Scarborough shows no signs of achieving the levels of growth and density necessary to support something like Mayor Rob Ford’s pet subway project. And while Finch Avenue desperately needs improved transit service, Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti is never going to be able to make a realistic case for a Finch subway.

But that’s old news.

Underscoring all this demographic nerdery is the salient point: is there any connection between these areas of growth and the city’s plans for infrastructure and services? Are we building the city to actually meet this growth? Or are we just wasting time debating whether the mayor is allowed to read things while he drives?

Wait. Nevermind. I already know the answer.
 
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Since the Census is only every 5 years, does anyone know if the City of Toronto tracks population changes annually by political riding, postal code, census track, etc?
 
Just an FYI,

Trinity Spadina will most likely be split up come the next Federal election, as the boundaries are currently being redrawn. Cityplace would become a new ward, along with parts of downtown according to some maps Olivia Chow has been distributing, though decisions haven't been made yet as to how to draw the new boundaries.
 
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I am very surprised by the lack of growth in Parkdale-High Park also! So many properties have changed ownership from single older individuals to young families on our street, and we are seeing much faster than +3% growth of the school population. Interesting...
AmJ
 
30,000 new people is astounding. Milton also grew by 30,000 people between the two censuses and seems to hog the limelight.

Consider this: Trinity-Spadina added the same number of new residents as Milton except during that time:

1. There was no addition in road capacity in that area
2. There was no addition in transit capacity in that area
3. There was hardly any addition in school capacity in that area
4. There was not much addition in water, sewer or other utility capacity - or certainly less than there was in Milton.

Granted, some of that is due to the kind of population that moved in: Milton is full of families with children whereas downtown Toronto's new residents are mostly singles and couples, so there's not that much need for new schools (although as the other thread suggests, there is a need for some). Still, this just shows that from an economic efficiency POV, infill and density is the way to go. Right wing, free market sprawl apologists should put that in their pipe and smoke it.
 
30,000 new residents and how many new employment positions? Let's all cheer the suburbification of Toronto.
 
30,000 new residents and how many new employment positions? Let's all cheer the suburbification of Toronto.

Cocal-Cola, Corus, RBC, SNC-Lavalin, NBC are just a few of the companies who have moved jobs from the suburbs to downtown. Their have been what about 10 new office towers gone up or going up in the last half decade and the vacancies are still pretty good. Other then Calgary what other city in Canada has built anywhere near that much office space. All this in the longest and largest recession.
Me thinks your anti-Toronto attitude is getting the best of you. But we're all used to your doom and gloom about Toronto over the years.
 
Glen, I think your analysis is a misinterpretation of the trend. Similarly, what do you even mean when you say the suburbanization of Toronto? Even if new occupants in Trinity-Spadina are overwhelmingly commuting to neighbouring municipalities for work (which I highly doubt) they are investing those earnings in the city core. How is that to be viewed negatively from the perspective of Toronto businesses? Back on main street the increase in population is translating into a real improvement in the retail and business climate. As mentioned by Thanos, Toronto businesses and property owners are investing heavily in upgrading and expanding their operations and facilities in the central city. And even if few new net jobs are being created the trend suggests that the jobs being created in central Toronto are likely good jobs and that people are choosing to live closer to work, which will have a positive impact on transportation patterns throughout the GTA.
 
Toronto has less full time jobs located within the city than it did a more than quarter century ago. In 1986 there were 1,060,300 full time jobs in the city. In 2011 that number was 1,024,200. A decrease of 36,100 jobs. Rearranging deck chairs is not progress.
 
Glen, you have to look within the municipality into where job growth is geographically occurring. You can't take an entire city of 2.6 million that spreads over 600 square kilometers and make a sweeping generalization based on aggregate job growth. If you did that, you would make the same mistake as just looking at population growth for the whole city - as you can see from the map, it is very uneven with some areas experiencing a loss, and some experiencing (like Trinity Spadina) a dramatic gain.
 
You don't need an urban study to tell you the growth is all due to the Condo boom of cityplace/waterfront/King west developments, or in real-estate terms, 'C1'

I'm not sure if this is enough 'ammo' to justify a DRL as we know the demographic that has moved in is extremely mobile and not vested in those communities.

The yuppie real estate ladder

Move downtown from their parent's suburban home
Live in the condo for 3-5 years (as an individual or shacked up common-law/partner)
Realise very few units are 'family friendly' and decide to move to a
1. Local freehold (depending on financial ability)
2. Suburbia home
3. Small town

Will be interesting to see the next 5 years as CityPlace/Liberty Village, and all these other Condo dwellers decide they need more space.
 
js97:

Those who move into Trinity Spadina are probably the ones who won't be heavily dependent on subway by and large. And besides, the units are hardly going to become empty en masse just because the initial group of residents left for other pastures.

AoD
 
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Toronto has less full time jobs located within the city than it did a more than quarter century ago. In 1986 there were 1,060,300 full time jobs in the city. In 2011 that number was 1,024,200. A decrease of 36,100 jobs. Rearranging deck chairs is not progress.

And here i thought we were talking about the downtown core. Obviously you have other issues.
 
The real story isn't stagnant employment overall, it's the decline in manufacturing with other sectors picking up the slack. In 1983 22% of the jobs in the city were in manufacturing, now it's less than 10%. That's what's bringing the numbers down.

Downtown employment, at 442,000 jobs, is the highest it's been since they started counting (at least as far as the employment surveys show).

And the DRL was needed a long time ago.
 
And here i thought we were talking about the downtown core. Obviously you have other issues.

My issue with Glen is that he continues to moan about the issues surrounding job flight instead of actively showing that he is trying to change the situation. He should be championing proposals like rebalancing the commercial-residential tax rates, getting the issue back into the media spotlight (maybe an article for the Sun?) or even calling Rob Ford.
 

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