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Things tend to slow down during the winter months, but Ukraine has Russia on the back foot and it makes some sense to press the advantage, and not give Russia time to properly mobilize. I hear Russia has been taking extremely heavy casualties in recent weeks. Really, this is a tragedy for the Russian people. Russia can't afford to lose this many young men.
 
The soil in Eastern Ukraine is very dense and forms thick heavy mud. During periods of heavy rainfall and above freezing temperatures, it is difficult to move heavy vehicles/equipment and large numbers of people through off-road spaces.
This bezdorizhzhya season will end as the temperatures drop consistently below freezing and the land hardens up again.
I am sure that the UAF will welcome not having to slog through the mud as they have been doing for weeks, and I expect the pace to pick up again. The Russians on the other hand are going to be miserable as they are exposed to the cold conditions without supplies and won’t want to stay within reach of the Ukrainians. My money is on Ukraine this winter.
 
The Economist today notes, among other things:

I t’s mud season again in Ukraine. “Spring and autumn are the most difficult periods for warfare,” says reservist Colonel Oleh Zhdanov, a former operations officer on the Ukrainian general staff. “The main problem is the rain.” Farm tracks leading to the front lines are churned into slippery swamps, armoured vehicles founder, soldiers slip and fall and sometimes break bones. “As the temperature drops, the fighting slows down,” says Colonel Zhdanov. “When roads are impassable, the war usually becomes more positional.”

“The rain feels like needles on every part of your body; you are pouring water out of your boots,” says Andriy, a Ukrainian unit commander in the province of Luhansk. His poncho is his most treasured piece of kit. “I love it, I could write a book about it.” By day, it keeps the rain off; at night he stretches it into a canopy above his foxhole. Other soldierly essentials are a water-resistant sleeping bag, good thermal underwear (“I didn’t change my clothes for two weeks; I smell really bad”), and sanitary towels, which soldiers use as insoles to keep the damp out of their boots.

Staying warm and dry is a matter of luck, says Andriy. Sometimes, digging in, he hits dry earth a metre below the surface; other times he has to spend the night with subterranean streams trickling into his sleeping bag. In the morning you can tell the unlucky ones, because they are almost comically covered in mud.

Every season has its advantages and disadvantages. Andriy, the unit commander, notes that mud can even be helpful: “In autumn your weapon is so obviously dirty that you clean it every day.” It will get colder soon enough; freezing conditions make it harder for bacteria to thrive and easier for vehicles to manoeuvre. Says Colonel Zhdanov, “I always say that the one who prepares the targets better and equips the soldier better will have the advantage when the winter comes. When a soldier is in warm clothes, he will fight in the cold; when the ground is dry and hard he will feel comfortable. And then there will be a tendency to intensify hostilities.”
 
The city of Kherson is now liberated. This is another turning point in the war and a major humiliation (again) for Russia.

Time to step on the gas even more.

From Special Kherson Cat on twitter:

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A video of Ukrainian Soldiers being lauded/cheered as they arrive in the centre of town:

 
As a couple others have mentioned, I expect Ukraine will take a slight operational pause over the next month or two (with the exception of clearing the rest of the West side of the Dniper) they will probably only do deep strikes and probing attacks.

Once the ground freezes, Ukraine will pick up the tempo again. Their troops are equipped for winter, Russia's are not. Winter could be a route, but we will see. Ukraine will no doubt be eager to launch significant operations while it's cold.

Kherson is a very nice victory for them though, as well as a symbolic one, given it was the first city to fall in the early days of the invasion.
 
As a couple others have mentioned, I expect Ukraine will take a slight operational pause over the next month or two (with the exception of clearing the rest of the West side of the Dniper) they will probably only do deep strikes and probing attacks.

Once the ground freezes, Ukraine will pick up the tempo again. Their troops are equipped for winter, Russia's are not. Winter could be a route, but we will see. Ukraine will no doubt be eager to launch significant operations while it's cold.

Kherson is a very nice victory for them though, as well as a symbolic one, given it was the first city to fall in the early days of the invasion.
One thing they can do, while waiting for the ground to freeze, is to start hitting the road connections to Crimea not that they are in HIMARS range.
 
Their troops are equipped for winter, Russia's are not.
A good area for Canada to contribute. $15 million doesn’t buy many MANPATS but it does buy a lot of winter clothing.

  • 400,000 pieces of winter clothing for a total of $15 million. This critical winter equipment includes jackets, pants, boots, gloves, and parkas sourced from Canadian companies through the Canadian Commercial Corporation. An additional 100,000 pieces will come from CAF inventory.
 
One thing they can do, while waiting for the ground to freeze, is to start hitting the road connections to Crimea not that they are in HIMARS range.

Hitting the bridge substantially reduced supply capacity from Crimea. Now they just try to hit the transhipment and assembly points that are within range.

Patience. Once the ground freezes, we'll see the Zaporizhzhia offensive aiming right for Melitopol, breaking the back of the Russian Army in the Ukrainian mainland.
 
Hitting the bridge substantially reduced supply capacity from Crimea. Now they just try to hit the transhipment and assembly points that are within range.

Patience. Once the ground freezes, we'll see the Zaporizhzhia offensive aiming right for Melitopol, breaking the back of the Russian Army in the Ukrainian mainland.
Yes, it could also be a tough fight, we shall see. Russia appears to have fundamentally shifted their thinking to more sound war doctrine and will be focused on creating defensive lines and holding their current territories, rather than being in unsustainable offensive positions.

I think how things go over the winter is still relatively unpredictable. Ukraine could see major gains, or we could see more or less a protracted stalemate. I'm hoping for the former of course.
 
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