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Letter from Ukraine: The failure of ‘General Frost’​

‘It was a very difficult time for the Ukrainian people. But we persevered. We wrote a new history of our country, we wrote our personal instructions.’​

From link.

Spring has rushed into Ukraine. We usually have snow in March but on this March day it was 12C outside. I received a message from our mayor that the electricity in our city will not be turned off for the next few days. Finally.

This winter seemed so long and so dark. Russia had high hopes for frost. However, natural forces were on the side of Ukraine this time.

“General Frost” is a mythical person who helped Russia in several important military battles. Frost prevented Napoleon Bonaparte from occupying Moscow in 1812. During the Second World War, cold weather spoiled Germany’s plans to attack Russia. The German army had no winter clothing and had more losses from the cold than from the Soviet army. The cold also affected the equipment: there was no antifreeze so the German equipment broke down.

Russia expected many victories this winter with the help of “General Frost,” not only in Ukraine but also to influence other European countries, which, under the pressure of their citizens, would stop military and financial aid to Ukraine.

Russia often broadcast news videos of German citizens buying candles, batteries and flashlights in a panic. During the war, my niece left Ukraine to continue her studies at a German medical university. Her German student friends were shocked by this Russian fake news. The Germans were upset, but there was no panic.

Russia cut off gas supplies to EU countries and waited for Europe to freeze, hoping Europeans would be unable to survive without Russian gas and be forced to negotiate and make concessions. “General Frost” failed as winter was unusually warm.

Europe also compensated for the lack of Russian gas by increasing the share of liquefied gas and EU countries significantly limited consumption and resorted to savings.

Meanwhile, the Russians systematically bombarded Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The threat was real and great — millions of Ukrainians were left without heat and electricity for the winter.

The most authoritative analysts predicted frozen cities and a humanitarian crisis with millions of refugees from Ukraine.

It was frightening and cold at that time. There were days when there was only four hours of electricity a day. I remember a funny story. My neighbour ordered 500 flashlights on Ali Express on the eve of the blackouts. He dreamed of making good money. The parcel was delayed coming from China for so long that they lost their relevance. He donates flashlights to all his friends now. All he earned was a few thousand reprimands from his wife.

In this difficult time, Ukrainians showed themselves from the best side. Their courageous struggle attracted the attention of the world — entire countries, private companies, film actors and ordinary citizens began to collect money and send thousands of generators and other aid to Ukraine. Generators helped a lot. Over 300,000 generators of various capacities were delivered to Ukraine in December. There were so many of them that it started to pollute the air.

The Russian attacks provoked massive power outages and heating failures. However, hundreds of Russian missiles and drones did not destroy the energy system of Ukraine. Built in Soviet times, it was designed for the possibility of a nuclear war. The system has been quickly restored.

Allies of Ukraine are a great help. They provided us with modern air defence equipment. In the second half of winter, the Russians ran out of both missiles and “Shahids” — the attacks decreased and more and more missiles and drones became the prey of the Ukrainian defenders of the sky.

It was a very difficult time for the Ukrainian people. But we persevered. No one taught Ukrainians how to behave in such a situation. There are no such instructions. We wrote a new history of our country, we wrote our personal instructions.

Ukrainians have passed this test and I am convinced that there are still many new difficulties ahead. But spring is ahead, a time of change and hope.
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DSC said:
That is exactly why there has been no movement for months - waiting for early summer. Weather there is warming up! https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ua/14-day-weather-trend/kyiv/kyiv
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Admiral Beez said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1644622357078896642

I think the 65 ton Leopard and Challenger tanks may struggle in these conditions.
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Yes. But also this is not how one would actually operate. For one, driving down a known road slowly is asking to hit a minefield or get an artillery or airstrike.

In real life, roads like this will either be graded or proved by the combat engineers. Or will get gap crossed:


The hard part that Ukraine has to pull off is not the mud. They can just wait for better weather. It's breaching fixed Russian defensive lines that is the challenge. Breaching is some of the most complex operations that militaries do. Their ability to do a combined arms breach will determine the success of their operations:

 
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People shocked and outraged at Cirque du Soleil for flying Russian flag in Toronto​


From link.

Cirque du Soleil returned to Toronto this week with the April 7 arrival of its KOOZA show.

For the first time, the Canadian entertainment company is hosting its big top on the site of the former Mr. Christie's Factory in Etobicoke, but some neighbourhood residents are alarmed by one aspect of the production.

The big top standing on the former factory site features a collection of flags at its entrance, including the flag of the Russian Federation — a symbol that has triggered many in the community, an area home to a concentration of Ukrainian diaspora.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1645574513713610756
An area resident, Maria Vasserman, tells blogTO, "I live in Mimico (Humber Bay Shores) – a very Ukrainian community. Recently, Cirque du Soleil put up its tents and displayed a Russian flag on top of it."

"This triggers many community members, including those who had to flee from war just recently. They feared waking up and seeing the Russian flag above their heads. Now they see it, only in Canada."
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1642985088471412736
Similar comments have been posted to other social media platforms, calling out Cirque du Soleil for its inclusion of the Russian flag, a move the entertainment company vigorously defends.

Vasserman says that, along with other community members, she "contacted Cirque du Soleil to explain the situation," but explains that she was frustrated by the defensive response.

She provided a statement issued by Cirque du Soleil in response to community concerns, which reads, "Cirque du Soleil Entertainment Group is a global entertainment company that performs in over 90 countries in front of diverse audiences and employs an international cast of artists from over 70 countries."

"As a creative company, we are non-political, and we deeply believe in open-mindedness, diversity, inclusion and respect. These values guide us in our interactions with our artists, employees, partners and fans, and are reflected in all our productions. Art has no geographical boundaries. Through our shows, our goal is always to inspire the local population where we perform."

"We are very sorry if you have seen this as anything other than a celebration to highlight the unique and inclusive atmosphere the organization is known for."

The statement goes on to say that "the Russian-born artists whom we employ are not officials of their government."

"Therefore, in the vision of our mission to invoke the imagination, provoke the senses and evoke the emotions of people around the world, including all artists —which is the very core of our existence— Russian-born artists are a part of our family and will always be allowed and welcomed to perform on our shows."

"They keep claiming that they're not siding with the enemy and are staying away from politics," says Vasserman.

"Unfortunately, this represents siding with Russia," she continued, adding, "I think something needs to be done."
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The Ukraine Consulate is at 2275 Lake Shore Blvd W..

Cirque du Soleil is at 2150 Lake Shore Blvd W.. Practically neighbours.

From link. At least they are NOT the Russian Presidential flag.
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AlvinofDiaspar said:
I have indeed. Though it is one thing leaking manual and specs that is classified but not overly sensitive; it's another leaking high level intelligence in order to "own" someone.

AoD
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This stuff is definitely on a different level. Not Snowden or Wikileaks bad. But definitely concerning that this ever left the SCIF or that processional opinions based on the highest classified info (Human source, SIGINT and satellite imagery in that one product alone) are being shared. Some people.....
 
kEiThZ said:
This stuff is definitely on a different level. Not Snowden or Wikileaks bad. But definitely concerning that this ever left the SCIF or that processional opinions based on the highest classified info (Human source, SIGINT and satellite imagery in that one product alone) are being shared. Some people.....
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You'd think these files must be salted to enable tracing, or am I overestimating the abilities?

AoD
 

Trudeau announces new military aid, bilateral agreements during Ukraine PM’s visit​

From link.

DA536F62ZNK5FGPT4GE44WWOOE.JPG

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal signs documents with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Toronto on April 11.CARLOS OSORIO/Reuters
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a range of new military, economic and cultural measures to support Ukraine in its war with Russia on Tuesday as he hosted a visit by his Ukrainian counterpart to Toronto.

The new Canadian assistance includes thousands of assault rifles, dozens of machine-guns and millions of rounds of ammunition to help the Ukrainian military fight Russian invaders.

Trudeau and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also signed a new agreement to help Ukrainian and Canadian youth work and travel in the two countries, along with an update to the existing Canada-Ukraine free trade deal.

Canada is also imposing new sanctions on 14 Russian individuals and 34 Russian entities, as well as nine organizations tied to the financial sector in Belarus, because of their support for Moscow’s invasion, Trudeau said.

“Canada will continue to be steadfast in our support of Ukraine as you defend yourselves heroically against Putin’s brutal, barbaric invasion,” he said during a news conference with Shmyhal. “The courage of Ukrainians is heroic.”

The Ukrainian prime minister used the occasion to thank Canada for its support since Russian forces invaded in February 2022, which has included billions of dollars in previously announced economic and military aid.

At the same time, Shmyhal underscored the need for additional military assistance as his military prepares for a spring counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine, as well as the transfer of frozen Russian assets to help with rebuilding.

Trudeau delivered a strong defence of Canada’s continued support for Ukraine, describing the war there as emblematic of the larger fight for the principles and values of peace and democracy.

“Authoritarian dictators are looking at Vladimir Putin, curious to see if he will succeed,” Trudeau said. “Because everywhere in the world, there are neighbours with larger armies than the country beside them saying: ‘Oh, wouldn’t it be nice to redraw the map?’”

Shmyhal’s visit coincided with several apparent attacks on Canadian websites, with a group claiming to support Russia taking responsibility. That included an attack on the websites of the Prime Minister’s Office and the Senate.

Trudeau said it was not uncommon for Russian hackers to target countries that support Ukraine, particularly when those countries are hosting a high-level Ukrainian delegation.

“But in case anyone was wondering,” Trudeau added, “Russia being able to bring down an official government of Canada webpage for a few hours is in no way going to dissuade us from our unshakable support of Ukraine.”
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AlvinofDiaspar said:
You'd think these files must be salted to enable tracing, or am I overestimating the abilities?

AoD
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Yes. I think people imagine that top secret files are rare. Doesn't work like that. The classification of any information is based on risk to national interest. Usually, this is based on how the information itself was derived ("sources and methods"), more than the actual value of the information. For example, if I have a report that is based on a communications intercept of the Martian ambassador to Vulcan, the report must be classified because of how the underlying information was obtained. Not necessarily because the information or analysis in the report is significant. With this in mind, you have to imagine that when you work in an intelligence office or military headquarters or national advisory (like say the Privy Council Office), a significant amount of material produced is classified. Entire floors or buildings have secured offices where classified information can be worked on, stored and moved around. And since these are regular offices, you routinely have everything from client organizations to cleaners accessing these premises for work. It's for this reason that the security clearance process are rather stringent and is the same for an analyst to the cafeteria worker in the building. At the end of the day, for everybody to be able to work freely and comfortably in there, a high degree of trust is essential.

Good 101 video here:

 
I'm really concerned that the US and certain European partners are purposely being stingy on lethal aid, to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. Pessimistic internal assessments aren't helping. They might be fuelling self-fulfilling prophesies. I'm reminded of February last year where nobody wanted to give Ukraine any real weaponry because everyone thought Ukraine's government would fall within days, and instead were trying to go down the path of pushing a long insurgency on them. We need to help them fight this war as they want, with the maximum effort they can muster.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1645550024628092928
 
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