lenaitch
Senior Member
Trying to recreate 19th century czarist Russia?
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Northern Light
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From CNN: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-03-22/index.html
1 hr 57 min ago
In an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government is now offering the US full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets, multiple officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.
Why this matters: The remarkable transparency essentially gives the US veto power over Ukrainian targeting of Russia and is meant to convince the administration that providing the critical weapons would not lead to strikes inside Russian territory, which the US fears would escalate the war and draw it directly into a conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
At issue are the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, surface-to-surface missiles that can fly around 200 miles (300 kilometers), about four times the distance of the rockets used by the HIMARS mobile systems the US began sending to Ukraine four months ago.
Despite Ukraine’s proposal, the Biden administration still has not approved the new long-range ATACMS weapons, and argues that Ukraine is doing well with the HIMARS systems it currently has. In fact on Wednesday the administration announced funding for 18 more HIMARS for Ukraine, bringing the total to over 30 US systems.
There are also concerns inside the administration that providing the longer-range ATACMS weapons would cross a red line in the eyes of Moscow, which would see the US becoming “a direct party to the conflict.”
But that red line is becoming murkier with Friday’s annexation of four Ukraine territories by Russia. The US has stated that it will support the use of western weapons inside those zones even if Russia now considers it part of its official territory.
Still, the idea of taking a more active role in discussions over Ukrainian targeting raises American fears of being seen as more involved than it would like.
1 hr 57 min ago
Ukraine is offering the US targeting oversight in bid for new long-range rockets, officials tell CNN
From CN's Alex MarquardtIn an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government is now offering the US full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets, multiple officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.
Why this matters: The remarkable transparency essentially gives the US veto power over Ukrainian targeting of Russia and is meant to convince the administration that providing the critical weapons would not lead to strikes inside Russian territory, which the US fears would escalate the war and draw it directly into a conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
At issue are the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, surface-to-surface missiles that can fly around 200 miles (300 kilometers), about four times the distance of the rockets used by the HIMARS mobile systems the US began sending to Ukraine four months ago.
Despite Ukraine’s proposal, the Biden administration still has not approved the new long-range ATACMS weapons, and argues that Ukraine is doing well with the HIMARS systems it currently has. In fact on Wednesday the administration announced funding for 18 more HIMARS for Ukraine, bringing the total to over 30 US systems.
There are also concerns inside the administration that providing the longer-range ATACMS weapons would cross a red line in the eyes of Moscow, which would see the US becoming “a direct party to the conflict.”
But that red line is becoming murkier with Friday’s annexation of four Ukraine territories by Russia. The US has stated that it will support the use of western weapons inside those zones even if Russia now considers it part of its official territory.
Still, the idea of taking a more active role in discussions over Ukrainian targeting raises American fears of being seen as more involved than it would like.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Strange article. Ukraine is already well aware of American red lines. They won't cross them.
Targeting is not random (unless you're Russian....). A Joint Integrated Prioritized Target List (the JIPTL) is constructed and maintained. All kinds of effects can be assigned to targets on the list, from outright destruction to temporary degradation and disabling. The assigned effects are determined by the Joint Targeting Board based on Commander's Guidance. I'd be pretty surprised if the US and UK (at minimum) don't have visibility into the Ukrainian targeting cycle, guidance and JIPTL. Unless this is about offering a seat on the Board.
Link to doctrinal NATO publication:
Targeting is not random (unless you're Russian....). A Joint Integrated Prioritized Target List (the JIPTL) is constructed and maintained. All kinds of effects can be assigned to targets on the list, from outright destruction to temporary degradation and disabling. The assigned effects are determined by the Joint Targeting Board based on Commander's Guidance. I'd be pretty surprised if the US and UK (at minimum) don't have visibility into the Ukrainian targeting cycle, guidance and JIPTL. Unless this is about offering a seat on the Board.
Link to doctrinal NATO publication:
kEiThZ
Superstar
Northern Light
Superstar
Confirming much of the reporting on Ukrainian advances on the southern front:
Richard White
Senior Member
I wonder what will become of the troops in Winter. Ukrainian troops will likely have some decent kit from the west to survive the winter but these Russian conscripts likely will not.
If this war drags on into Winter I can see Russian troops dropping dead in the battlefield from exposure to the elements.
kEiThZ
Superstar
They'll steal winter clothing from the locals. The problem with winter warfare isn't so much about warm clothing.
Richard White
Senior Member
This is true. Russian equipment is made for the winter weather.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Debatable. If they really designed for the winter, their vehicles would have APUs (like most Western equipment). They don't. So they have to run the engine in their tank (at incredibly high fuel burn and high thermal signature) just to use the optics.
Remember this the next time some numbnuts complains about electrification in military vehicles being about the "green agenda".
kEiThZ
Superstar
Want to know what will kill them in the winter?
Visibility. In every spectrum.
They will congregate in building. They will light fires. They'll hide under trees with no leaves. They'll run their vehicles for long periods of time.
Ukrainians will see all of that and rain steel on them from the heavens.
Visibility. In every spectrum.
They will congregate in building. They will light fires. They'll hide under trees with no leaves. They'll run their vehicles for long periods of time.
Ukrainians will see all of that and rain steel on them from the heavens.
Bjays92
Senior Member
The marvel of modern day politics and social media; seeing a feud between the world's richest man and the president of Ukraine and his high ranking officials over a war and proposed peace plans.
In some ways it's hilarious, in other ways it's almost hard to believe it's real. Certainly if you told me 20 (or even 10) years ago that world leaders and billionaires would be posting internet polls on peace plans for the largest land conflict in Europe since World War Two, I'd call bull.
In some ways it's hilarious, in other ways it's almost hard to believe it's real. Certainly if you told me 20 (or even 10) years ago that world leaders and billionaires would be posting internet polls on peace plans for the largest land conflict in Europe since World War Two, I'd call bull.
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Bjays92
Senior Member
Additionally:
I haven't seen any concrete evidence to back the claims, but The Guardian shared this tweet in their live thread. While I'm not convinced that this has anything to do with nuclear weapons units or movement, this is the type of posturing that I would expect in the coming days and weeks from Russia. They've made the threat repeatedly, now they need to make it look like they're actually serious. Foreign intelligence would immediately pick up on any movement of nuclear units, troops or infrastructure, and Russia knows this. One would almost certainly expect significant field level posturing with nuclear weapons to try and force concessions or negotiations before usage would even be contemplated.
So again, not sure about the validity of these claims but it is the type of movement that would be expected and I figured we'd see in the next few days as Russian losses continue to mount. One key question is whether the US, who has been incredibly transparent with their intelligence throughout this whole ordeal, would actually publicly note a change in Russia's nuclear posture. Such public disclosure would almost certainly cause panic and spook a lot of people, so even in the event of Russian posturing I'm not sure how much verifiable information would leak to the public, as Western nations would likely want to rely on backchannel communications to deter the Russian threat before it comes to fruition or even causes mass panic.
I haven't seen any concrete evidence to back the claims, but The Guardian shared this tweet in their live thread. While I'm not convinced that this has anything to do with nuclear weapons units or movement, this is the type of posturing that I would expect in the coming days and weeks from Russia. They've made the threat repeatedly, now they need to make it look like they're actually serious. Foreign intelligence would immediately pick up on any movement of nuclear units, troops or infrastructure, and Russia knows this. One would almost certainly expect significant field level posturing with nuclear weapons to try and force concessions or negotiations before usage would even be contemplated.
So again, not sure about the validity of these claims but it is the type of movement that would be expected and I figured we'd see in the next few days as Russian losses continue to mount. One key question is whether the US, who has been incredibly transparent with their intelligence throughout this whole ordeal, would actually publicly note a change in Russia's nuclear posture. Such public disclosure would almost certainly cause panic and spook a lot of people, so even in the event of Russian posturing I'm not sure how much verifiable information would leak to the public, as Western nations would likely want to rely on backchannel communications to deter the Russian threat before it comes to fruition or even causes mass panic.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Given that conscripts from their nuclear force have been captured in Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised if these units are seeing their force protection and mobility assets deployed.