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Towered

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Will Russia invade Ukraine? What do you guys think?

I was disappointed to read that Germany refused so far to send any weapons to Ukraine.
 

Richard White

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Will Russia invade Ukraine? What do you guys think?

I was disappointed to read that Germany refused so far to send any weapons to Ukraine.

Personally, I think Putin is doing what he was trained to do in the KGB. He is trying to reinvent the Soviet Union the way only a trained KGB agent would know how to do, by force.

I would not be surprised to see a return to the USSR in the next year or so. With Belarus and Kazakhstan under the influence of Russia., if Ukraine is invaded it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the former USSR rejoins Russia to avoid it happening involuntarily.

I doubt the EU would intervene and a NATO strike against Russia would mean WW3. Should there be a war against Russia it would make the Cuban Missile Crisis look like the Gulf War.
 

WislaHD

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Personally, I think Putin is doing what he was trained to do in the KGB. He is trying to reinvent the Soviet Union the way only a trained KGB agent would know how to do, by force.

I would not be surprised to see a return to the USSR in the next year or so. With Belarus and Kazakhstan under the influence of Russia., if Ukraine is invaded it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the former USSR rejoins Russia to avoid it happening involuntarily.

I doubt the EU would intervene and a NATO strike against Russia would mean WW3. Should there be a war against Russia it would make the Cuban Missile Crisis look like the Gulf War.
That is a very alarmist take.

Given the state of Russia's military, it isn't even evident that they would win a conflict in Ukraine.

It is true though, that the West/NATO/EU won't do much for Ukraine. The real question mark is the Baltic states.
 

Richard White

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Nope. They could win. The question is the cost of the operation. Can the Ukrainians make the price so steep that invading Ukraine would bring about the end of Putin's regime?

Russia has a powerful enough military that they could likely wipe out any resistance before it became a threat. The only thing that would stop them from invading Ukraine at this point would be nuclear weapons in NATO countries bordering Ukraine.
 

slickpete83

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China will be really pissed off if Putin invades Ukraine during their Olympic games , they don't want to lose their spot light from the world , i don't think Putin will want to piss off his biggest trading partner , last time Russia invaded Georgia was in 2008 during the summer of the Summer Olympics in Beijing lol...
i think Russia had a meeting with China about this
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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Nope. They could win. The question is the cost of the operation. Can the Ukrainians make the price so steep that invading Ukraine would bring about the end of Putin's regime?

The role of the west is to make sure the price will be way too steep - though there is also a school of argument out there that suggest politico-religious considerations (the recent split of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from Russia) that changes the equation to the point where the human/economic cost becomes a secondary concern.

AoD
 

Richard White

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The role of the west is to make sure the price will be way too steep - though there is also a school of argument out there that suggest politico-religious considerations (the recent split of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from Russia) that changes the equation to the point where the human/economic cost becomes a secondary concern.

AoD

The West has a history of letting Eastern and Central Europe fend for themselves when Russia invades., In 1956 Hungarians forced out the Soviets, only to have them return by force and retake the country. As things got worse and Soviet troops came closer to Budapest, their Prime Minister pleaded with the west for support, those pleas went unanswered. The Soviets retook the country after the west abandoned Hungary.

Hundreds of thousands of Hungarians fled the country at the time spreading out across the globe. My grandmother for example went to Austria, then to Australia and finally to Canada in 1966.

I can see the same thing happening here. It is likely that the west will avoid a war with Russia as it will lead to WW3. Russia and the US are evenly matched and depending on how things play out Russia may have the backing of China. If Russia allied with China go to war with the US nobody wins and everyone dies.
 

Towered

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The West has a history of letting Eastern and Central Europe fend for themselves when Russia invades., In 1956 Hungarians forced out the Soviets, only to have them return by force and retake the country. As things got worse and Soviet troops came closer to Budapest, their Prime Minister pleaded with the west for support, those pleas went unanswered. The Soviets retook the country after the west abandoned Hungary.

Hundreds of thousands of Hungarians fled the country at the time spreading out across the globe. My grandmother for example went to Austria, then to Australia and finally to Canada in 1966.

I can see the same thing happening here. It is likely that the west will avoid a war with Russia as it will lead to WW3. Russia and the US are evenly matched and depending on how things play out Russia may have the backing of China. If Russia allied with China go to war with the US nobody wins and everyone dies.

I doubt that there was any appetite in the West for another war only a decade after WW2 ended.

Same thing with Ukraine now - all our energies are focused on recovering from a 2 year pandemic, and now we're supposed to worry about Russia invading one of its neighbours? I could see sending them weapons and other supplies, but I'd guess there's next to zero support in the West to send combat troops to engage in a conflict that wouldn't affect the lives of ordinary citizens.
 

Bjays92

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Glad to see people finally talking about this here! As someone who's very much into and studying politics I'll give my two cents.

Firstly, there's no question Russia can easily defeat Ukraine, their army may be old and fading but it is still one of the largest militaries in the world and vastly superior in, size, technology and capability to that of Ukraine.

As has also been pointed out, the goal here likely isn't really strategic, Putin is getting older and wants to get the gang back together. That to me is really the only logical explanation for invading the entirety of Ukraine. Crimea was strategic but that's already under Russian control.

China has most certainly told Russia not to invade during the Olympics, because Beijing wants these Olympics to be a show of force to the world in the wake of all the bad press they've been getting. Much like 2008, these Olympics mean a lot for China and they don't want the spotlight taken off them. I expect an invasion will come right after the Olympics, like we saw in 2014.

I see very few avenues for peace, Russia is going heavy on the propaganda domestically and knows their demands are unrealistic. At this point they're just forming the pretext to "justify" the coming invasion.

There will be no coordination NATO defence, but it is possible some NATO countries, particularly in eastern Europe who remember Soviet occupation, may send troop support.

The immediate concern is avoiding a global conflict, but spillover is possible, military buildup would happen on both sides of Ukraine and Russia has verbally threatened other nearby countries as well. I don't think they have the intent to invade some of their other neighbors like they do Ukraine, but the more intense the situation the more volitile and mistakes and miscalculations could lead to more parties being drawn in.

That's how I see it currently.
 

Bjays92

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Now reports are trickling in that Russia blew up a pipeline in the Luhansk region. Not a very good situation right now.
 

Irishmonk

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It was Putin's game plan all along. He managed to weaken the USA and NATO during his Trump presidency, and now with all of the ducks in a row he strikes. Dog only knows what the next few months/years will bring.
 

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