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Lone Primate

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Article from the Financial Times claims to have info on Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations:


From the above:

View attachment 388492

- additional key points

While NATO membership would apparently be out, Ukraine would be permitted to have bilateral security guarantees from a host of NATO members and other allies that
would use language comparable to NATO's article 5.

Deal would require no nukes or nuke program for Ukraine, and prohibit foreign military bases on Ukrainian soil (ahem, Crimea)....

But would not otherwise require demilitarization.

No requirement to protect the Russian language in Ukraine either.
Well, that sure would be something it it's true. I'm a little dubious, because it sounds like a serious climb-down for Russia, without all that much to show for the effort, but if it's enough to get us all out of this jam, then I think it's a small price to pay—everything that Ukraine's suffered and lost so far notwithstanding. But if it gets those Russian kids home, steps down the international tensions, and secures Ukraine's status as an independent nation finally taken seriously by Russia, well, it's not the worst possible outcome of all this by a long shot. Let's all keep our fingers crossed.
 

lenaitch

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Article from the Financial Times claims to have info on Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations:


From the above:

View attachment 388492

- additional key points

While NATO membership would apparently be out, Ukraine would be permitted to have bilateral security guarantees from a host of NATO members and other allies that
would use language comparable to NATO's article 5.

Deal would require no nukes or nuke program for Ukraine, and prohibit foreign military bases on Ukrainian soil (ahem, Crimea)....

But would not otherwise require demilitarization.

No requirement to protect the Russian language in Ukraine either.

'But, but, that's part of Russia - has been for centuries' . . .

And those Russian-speaking 'freedom fighters, using Russian equipment - beats me, nothing to do with us.
 

kEiThZ

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People really need to understand two things.

1) How dismissive Russians are towards Ukrainians and the contempt Russians have for them. Good thread here to read:


2) How poor the average Russian actually is. Not Moscow and St. Petersburg. I mean the rural areas where a lot of these conscripts are drawn from. Where two thirds of homes don't have running water. Where there's no paved roads despite all the incredible resource wealth. To troops from these parts, Ukraine looks incredible.


These should provide context to how easy it is for Putin to exploit these people and commit them to do violence in Ukraine. With that in mind, peace talks have to be conducted very carefully. Putin isn't looking for peace. He's looking for a strategic pause to refit and re-arm.

The Ukrainians, Baltics and Eastern Europeans have been warning us about Putin and Russia for 20 years. It's time we started actually listening to them, instead of dictating to them.
 

Bjays92

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You make it sound like a video game. What you're talking about is very likely the end of the world. You're talking about sending missiles into the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and very little else, at this point. You're talking about destroying infrastructure on Russian soil and killing Russian citizens. Do you think they're just going to sit back and say, "Ah, you got us, guess we're even now"? They won't. They're going to fire back. And then we're going to fire back. And then they're going to obliterate one of our cities. And we're going to obliterate one of theirs. And at that point, it's very unlikely that we, any of us, will be able to put a stop to a general nuclear exchange. Nobody gets any points on a screen out of this. Nobody lives to compare scores at the end. Everything we've done for the past 15,000—hell, 2 million—years ends. So all I can tell you is, you'd really better pray that first missile across that frontier never gets fired, because that d!ck-measuring contest ends like Reservoir Dogs.
I am well aware of what I'm talking about, and it's not just like a video game, it's very real and very serious it's why its being talked about in the first place.

I cannot possibly fathom NATO or Europe letting attacks on their land slide simply because they were launched from within Russia proper.

We're dealing with hypotheticals here of course, but let's say Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine, (I know yesterday they said they're not even thinking about it, but they also said they weren't even thinking about invading up until the day they invaded)

So Russia uses a tactical Nuke in Ukraine, it was likely fired from one of 3 regions, Belarus (should they start hosting Russian nukes soon thanks to a recent constitutional change), the Crimean Peninsula or the Black Sea. There's a low chance that such a weapon could also be launched directly from Russia itself, particularly the Belgorod region.

So in the event such a weapon is launched from the Black Sea, that's the easiest launch to combat, you can take out the vessels it was launched from and then theoretically call it a day. If it came from Belarus, you would almost certainly have to target the launch sites in Belarus, and potentially other Russian miltary assets in the country, this could also maybe slide as Belarus could be a sacrificial lamb for Russia.

If it comes from Crimea, Russia sees that as their territory so that's a much bigger issue, and likewise Belgorod which is of course intentionally recognized as Russia.

The problem is, in most of these situations any direct military response will likely be seen as a declaration of war by Russia regardless, and lead to further attacks. So our only other option is to then just let bombs rain down because we're too afraid to attack the positions they were launched from.

No I don't take this lightly, it's a deadly serious issue, but its also a conflict that would see a type of warfare that we have never ever seen before, cruise missles and ICBMs, drone warfare between major powers. Obviously I'm hoping it doesn't come to that, but it's a real possibility, and we wouldn't simply be able to let an attack slide because ground forces weren't involved. Which is currently the biggest risk.
 

Bjays92

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For anyone further wondering about public opinion in Russia, this is from The Guardian:

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey published Wednesday.

According to the Levada Center, which is Russia’s main independent pollster, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017, prior to the introduction of an unpopular pension reform that raised the country’s retirement age.

The past month also saw increases in Russians’ trust for the country’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and the country’s ruling party United Russia, the pollster said.

The share of those who said Russia is moving in the right direction has also grown to 69%, a jump of 17% from the month before.
 

kEiThZ

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There's always a rally to the flag effect. But let's see what it is in 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, etc. As these casualties become more obvious, and the economic damage really sets in, opinion will change. Right now, keep in mind that most Russians don't actually know the extent of their losses in Russia. They are starting to slowly clue in though. See this interview with Valentina Melnikova, of the Union of Committees of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia. She says the Ukrainian numbers are accurate. Imagine if that's true.....


Think back to 2003 and the support for the war in Iraq. Support was high prior to the invasion. It began to drop as soon as invasion started and went net negative by the end of the year. The US wasn't taking the kinds of casualties the Russians are taking. Nor did the US face economic collapse.

The US is also not a country with substantial poverty (2/3rds of rural Russians don't have running water). The US didn't have soldiers looting potatoes like Russian troops are.


See this thread for what rural Russia (where a lot of the conscripts come from) is really like:



Now imagine, what the effect will be on the casualties and economic damage they are taking. How long do you think they keep up their support for Putin?
 
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Towered

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Europe's about to be cut off from Russian gas. Putin just signed some law that states it can only be bought in rubles, which the Europeans have said is unacceptable.
 

lenaitch

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Europe's about to be cut off from Russian gas. Putin just signed some law that states it can only be bought in rubles, which the Europeans have said is unacceptable.
Or, stated another way, Russia about to be cut off from Euros and Dollars.
 

Bjays92

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Or, stated another way, Russia about to be cut off from Euros and Dollars.
Some people are saying Putin's bluffing, and that he wouldn't sacrifice that much money and that much of his economy, but if your Putin it actually makes sense.

Europe has already said they're going to be divesting from Russian oil and gas, with the goal to be independent from it in less than a year for most European countries. If your Putin, losing this revenue is inevitable so you might as well bet on it now.

Either Europe pays in roubles, undercutting sanctions till they find a replacement. Or they refuse, Russia shuts of the gas, loses income they were going to lose anyway, but wreak havoc on Europe in the meantime.
 

kEiThZ

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If Putin cuts off Europe, he'll have even less economic runway for his war. Gas isn't easy to ship to another customer.
 

Bjays92

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If Putin cuts off Europe, he'll have even less economic runway for his war. Gas isn't easy to ship to another customer.
Well Putin is also reportedly being misinformed about just how poorly his "special military operation" is truly going, so his decisions could very well be based on incomplete information, which is equally concerning.
 

SkylineHorizon

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Some people are saying Putin's bluffing, and that he wouldn't sacrifice that much money and that much of his economy, but if your Putin it actually makes sense.

Europe has already said they're going to be divesting from Russian oil and gas, with the goal to be independent from it in less than a year for most European countries. If your Putin, losing this revenue is inevitable so you might as well bet on it now.

Either Europe pays in roubles, undercutting sanctions till they find a replacement. Or they refuse, Russia shuts of the gas, loses income they were going to lose anyway, but wreak havoc on Europe in the meantime.

Good.
Putin shoots himself in the foot and at the same time the Europeans finally wake the **** up and realize they can't keep sleeping with that crazy and highly unstable ex-girlfriend.

Should force the Germans to reverse their stupid and nonsensical decision to shut down their clean & emission free nuclear power plants. Sure there'll be some pain in the meantime but no breakup is clean and painless.
What's not to like?
 

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