[kEiThZ]

True. And replacing all the kit sent to Ukraine is going to take years for NATO.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

The US and NATO are at the point that several weapons like the Javelin and Stinger are either due for major upgrades or outright replacement with newer weapons. So it really isn't that much of an issue to send that inventory to Ukraine.

US Army initiates plan to replace Stingers with next-gen interceptor

As the Army sends off Stinger and Javelin missiles to Ukraine, the service begins the process of replacing its aging Stinger missiles for short-range air defense.

www.defensenews.com

Lockheed-Raytheonâs deadlier F-Model Javelin anti-tank missile rolls into production

Raytheon and Lockheed Martin’s joint venture for the Javelin has completed production of its first F-Model of the shoulder-fired anti-tank weapon.

www.defensenews.com

Just fantastic of the Ukrainians to manage the disposal of these missiles for NATO and the US. And nice of the Russians to put up targets to shoot at.

Also, while the Javelins are great and have captured the public's imagination, they are actually not optimal for urban warfare. 30 ft back blast radius makes it hard to fire from inside a building. Each missile is also US$200k. British NLAWs are less than half the price and can be fired from an enclosed firing positions. Much more fit for purpose in urban warfare.

 

[Bjays92]

Your fear of nuclear weapons is simultaneously both rational and substantially misinformed. The concept of MAD is based on a nuclear exchange between nuclear powers. Putin nuking Ukraine will sadly just add to the pile of rubble there.

It won't suddenly lead to WWIII because there's no NATO territory involved. And NATO isn't going to nuke Russia in response to a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

I wish people understood that there are far worse things than tactical nukes. Like some of the chemical weapons that the Russians got together with the Syrians to use over there. The levels of contamination from this stuff is worse. By contrast, 1.2 million people live in Hiroshima and 400k in Nagasaki today. They are functional and safe cities.

The worst part about the above misunderstanding is that the world is far more willing to tolerate the use of chemical and biological weapons, since it's below the threshold of nuclear warfare. So Putin could literally kill millions of Ukranians with Chem Bio and draw less sanctions than he would by popping one small tactical nuke that kills may be a few thousand (or even no casualties if it's a demonstration over the Black Sea).

I don't buy that Putin will use nukes unless actual Russian territory is threatened (with marginal ambiguity here over Crimea). Nor do I buy that the nuclear chain of command will follow through with a random order to nuke Ukrainian cities. They know there's no coming back from that.

Understand this, Russia needs a way out of this. And their primary way out going forward is to rely on China and to some extent India. If they use nukes, that support is finished. Russia and Putin will be seen as more unstable and dangerous than North Korea. The odds of a civil war erupting immediately after that would be high.

I do not fear an all out nuclear war, that's where you're misunderstanding me. I am more than aware the we will not nuke Russia even if they nuke Ukraine, but the global security ramifications of using a nuke (as well as chemical weapons might I add) is absolutely a concerning prospect.

None of what I am trying to say is fearmongering or worry of extinction level events. I'm into politics and as such my concern surrounds that sphere and its growing ramifications, more than it does a global event. I also fear for the millions more Ukrainians who could ultimately die in this conflict.

 

[W. K. Lis]

For patriotism and profit, Ukrainians line up to buy wartime stamp​

From link.

The crowd of hundreds outside Kyiv’s Central Post Office was growing restless. Some of them had been standing in line for more than eight hours – just to buy a stamp.

Not just any stamp. A stamp depicting a lone Ukrainian soldier flipping the bird at a grey Russian warship, perfectly capturing this country’s spirit of defiance through one of the iconic moments of this 56-day-old war.

The image is based on the response of Roman Hrybov, the commander of a State Border Guard Service unit of 19 who were stationed on Snake Island, a Ukrainian outpost in the Black Sea, at the start of the war.

On Feb. 25, the second day of the war, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, approached the island and demanded that the Ukrainian garrison capitulate.

“This is a Russian warship,” someone says in an audio recording of the exchange between Cdr. Hrybov and the Moskva that quickly went viral in Ukraine and beyond. “I ask you to lay down your arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary deaths. Otherwise, you will be bombed.”

Cdr. Hrybov can be heard playfully asking a member of his unit if he should make his position clear.

He then responds with a line that is now on billboards and bumper stickers all over this war-ravaged country: “Russian warship, go fuck yourself.”

Cdr. Hrybov and the other guards were initially believed to have been immediately killed, though it turned out they had been taken prisoner. All 19 returned to Ukraine in a prisoner swap late last month, and Cdr. Hrybov was awarded a medal.

People line up to buy postage stamps at the Ukrposhta, the Central Post Office, in Kyiv, April 20, 2022.

The episode grew even more famous after the Moskva, which had fired cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities throughout the first seven weeks of the war, sank on April 14. Though Russia claims the warship accidentally caught fire and then sank while being towed to dock for repairs, Ukraine says it went down after being struck by two anti-ship missiles.

Among the hundreds in line outside Kyiv’s main post office were people who saw buying one of the commemorative stamps as part patriotic duty, part souvenir collecting.

A million copies of the flipping-off-the-warship stamp were printed, and more than 700,000 have already been sold.

“Maybe it’s our patriotism. We want to help. The money will go to support the army, as far as we know,” said Anna Kobushkina, a 25-year-old surgeon who said she had been in line for an hour.

Each stamp costs 24 Ukrainian hryvnia, with four going to the country’s armed forces. “I will buy as many as they give me,” she said.

With hundreds of people ahead of her, and those at the front starting to shove and jostle, Ms. Kobushkina looked to have little chance of reaching the post office before the end of the business day.

She said Cdr. Hrybov’s act was “a beautiful moment” that captured the country’s fight for independence, adding that she hoped to one day pass the stamps on to her grandchildren.

“By their actions they demonstrated that even a small group of Ukrainian people are not willing to surrender,” said Ihor Krupsky, a 56-year-old pharmacist who had also been in line for an hour, of the soldiers who defied the Moskva. “For me personally, this means that even though Ukraine is not a big country, we will resist the Russian aggressor by any means possible.”

Some believe the Snake Island guards’ defiance has helped inspire Ukraine’s broader war effort, which has seen the country’s smaller military defy predictions by holding off one of the largest armies in the world. Earlier this month, Russia was forced to abandon – at least temporarily – its attempt to seize Kyiv in order to focus its forces on a smaller battleground in the east.

But in a country that has taken a catastrophic economic hit since the start of the war, many who were lined up to buy stamps Wednesday were doing so less out of patriotism than a need to make some money. The International Monetary Fund predicted this week that Ukraine’s gross domestic product would fall 35 per cent this year, almost entirely as a result of the war.

The stamps cost the equivalent of about $1 each at the post office, but packs of 12 were selling for several thousand dollars on eBay and other websites Wednesday.

For the most part, people want to buy them and then just sell them, said Oleksey Oleksandrovich, a 22-year-old who gave only his first and patronymic names and said he had been in line since 5 a.m. He planned to immediately sell any stamps he was able to purchase to a friend, who intended to hold on to them a little longer to see if prices continued to rise.

Ihor Smilyanskyi, the chief executive officer of the national postal service, Ukrposhta, was mobbed by stamp seekers when he arrived outside the main post office – which is on Kyiv’s central Independence Square – Wednesday afternoon. Some demanded that volunteers helping the country’s military be given priority access to the stamps.

Mr. Smilyanskyi told The Globe and Mail that, even if most of the people lined up at the post office were trying to make some money, the prices being paid for the stamp elsewhere spoke for themselves.

“I think the popularity of the stamp across the world is sending the message to the Russian army where it needs to go. And I’m happy this message will be sent more than one million times.”

He said Ukrposhta was already designing more limited-edition patriotic stamps. He even hinted that the Moskva might again feature on one, since it is now a “submarine.”

Wonder how many of those stamps are needed to send a letter from Ukraine to Russia?

 

[lenaitch]

True. And replacing all the kit sent to Ukraine is going to take years for NATO.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

And by giving away part of our warstock of towed artillery, perhaps an opportunity to invest in self-propelled or other ground-based options.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And by giving away part of our warstock of towed artillery, perhaps an opportunity to invest in self-propelled or other ground-based options.

Indeed. We lost that ability when we scrapped the M109s. Mind you, if we can’t get the tanks over seas in a hurry, can we get SPGs? I’d rather spend the money on the RCN and RCAF. Focus on meeting our NORAD commitments and protecting our coasts in the sky and on and below the sea.

 

[Bjays92]

Russia appears to be making reasonable games in the East, as was expected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517230391148482560

 

[kEiThZ]

"Seize" is the easy part. Let's see how "hold" goes for them.

 

[Bjays92]

Would appear the threat to Moldova is becoming more critical.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517421264142585861

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517421264142585861

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517470396752310273

Certainly a tough situation to be in, though they did also just fill out the EU questionnaire.

 

[Towered]

Would appear the threat to Moldova is becoming more critical.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517421264142585861

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517421264142585861

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517470396752310273

Certainly a tough situation to be in, though they did also just fill out the EU questionnaire.

If they really attempt to take all of southern Ukraine and cut it off from the sea, this is going to turn into a long, grinding insurgency that will continue for years. I can hardly picture either Ukraine or the West ever agreeing to a cease fire or peace talks that accept such a situation. The West needs to keep the weapons pouring in until Russia's military is thoroughly decimated and forced to retreat back to their economically ravaged failed state.

Secondly, what response will the West make if Russia manages to occupy all of southern Ukraine and then "liberate" the small ethnic Russian minority in Moldova? Now we're looking at them potentially attacking a second country, which unfortunately is also not a member of the EU or NATO.

 

[kEiThZ]

Would appear the threat to Moldova is becoming more critical.

What threat? After the sinking of the Moskva, they have no desire to attempt to capture Odessa.

Forget Odessa. By all accounts they don't have the forces to take all of the Donbas and secure the gains they've made to date. But the Russian military has to posture or the public will start asking why they lost 20k troops (which the accidentally admitted to yesterday) for minimal gains.

Ukraine is now getting heavier weapons. Hell, they are ordering off the secret menu now. Just look at the Phoenix Ghost loitering munition that the USAF developed for them. Ukraine has also completed a third round of mobilization and is up to 300k personnel. And a good chunk of all that is being paid for with aid. Meanwhile, Russia is running out of cash, out of troops, out of kit and out of spares.

 

[Bjays92]

What threat? After the sinking of the Moskva, they have no desire to attempt to capture Odessa.

Forget Odessa. By all accounts they don't have the forces to take all of the Donbas and secure the gains they've made to date. But the Russian military has to posture or the public will start asking why they lost 20k troops (which the accidentally admitted to yesterday) for minimal gains.

Ukraine is now getting heavier weapons. Hell, they are ordering off the secret menu now. Just look at the Phoenix Ghost loitering munition that the USAF developed for them. Ukraine has also completed a third round of mobilization and is up to 300k personnel. And a good chunk of all that is being paid for with aid. Meanwhile, Russia is running out of cash, out of troops, out of kit and out of spares.

I personally think people are underestimating Russia's ability to still have some level of success in Ukraine.

However, it would be virtually impossible to hold the corridor along the black sea without Kyiv falling in the long run.

 

[Towered]

I personally think people are underestimating Russia's ability to still have some level of success in Ukraine.

However, it would be virtually impossible to hold the corridor along the black sea without Kyiv falling in the long run.

It's up to us to ensure that doesn't happen.

 

[kEiThZ]

I personally think people are underestimating Russia's ability to still have some level of success in Ukraine.

Define success.

Can they make gains tactically? Absolutely.

Can they consolidate and hold? Doubt it.

Yesterday, the Pentagon assessed that Russia's combat power was down 25% since Feb 24th. Meanwhile, Ukraine was assessed to have gained so much armour, that they have parity on the number of tanks in theatre.

Yes, the South and East are different fights from Kyiv. But Russian incompetence is still the same. And now their troops are tired and they are increasingly running low on some ammo and supplies. For example, they are recycling body armour from the dead and wounded. What would your morale be after getting a set of ballistic plates covered in dried blood? And they can absolutely never let their guard down because the locals hate them. Even NATO forces didn't have it this bad in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And they are going to face an enemy that has only grown in capability since Kyiv. The enemy that they faced in Kyiv now has 6-7 battalions of M777 howitzer and more rounds than the total barrel life of all those guns. It's got hundreds of loiter munitions including some that nobody has ever seen before. More tanks than the start of the war. More basic kit like body armour and night vision goggles. More missiles. And somehow even more serviceable jets. Most importantly they have very competent leadership and a highly motivated force who operate independently at the tactical level (just like the West), unlike Russian forces.

It's a tough fight. But I expect the Ukrainians will prevail. And they will deliver an ass whooping that will echo through the history books.

To give you an idea of how effective some of this kit is, during the Battle of Panjwaii in Afghanistan, just two Canadian M777s took out dozens of Taliban and helped blunt enemy assaults. The US alone donated 72 guns to Ukraine. Canada, Australia and UK will donate dozens more. This comes with a total donation of nearly one howitzer round per Russian soldier in Ukraine. A triple digit count of M777s will do to the Russians in the field what they've been doing to Ukrainian cities.

 

[kEiThZ]

Also, anybody notice all the facilities that are spontaneously combusting in Russia over the last two days? Places where they design missiles, train aerospace personnel and make the precursors for fuels and explosives. I'm sure it's all just a coincidence, but these attacks could easily set Russian weapons manufacturing several years behind.

 

[Towered]

Also, anybody notice all the facilities that are spontaneously combusting in Russia over the last two days? Places where they design missiles, train aerospace personnel and make the precursors for fuels and explosives. I'm sure it's all just a coincidence, but these attacks could easily set Russian weapons manufacturing several years behind.

I haven't seen any news reports on that - can you share a link? Sounds fascinating.