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Bjays92

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Furthermore


This could mean many things of course, it could be someone taking advantage of the situation and anti Russia sentiment, to do some damage or it could be a Russian false flag. Who really knows.

When I said earlier the threat to Moldova is growing, I wasn't necessarily saying that there is a threat of long term Russian rule or occupation of Moldova, but there certainly could be regions of Moldova that get targeted, after all, their military is non existent.
 

lenaitch

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It would not be the first time a government has hidden their leaders health issues. Look at George VI, FDR, Reagan (it is suspected his Alzheimer's started before he left office) and even Stalin had suspected mental health issues prior to his death.

If Putin was ill for whatever reason, we would not know it until he was dead. If he has mental illness, I hope there are safeguards in place be it cyanide or double authentication.
Oh, for sure. For a head of government, it is a matter of the legal and legitimate exercise of power; for head of state, it is more symbolic in the sense that the state must carry on. The more that power is concentrated in one person/position, the more critical it can become unless the particular system has enough checks and balances baked into it.

Technically, in our parliamentary system, a PM with diminished capacity should have limited impact but it has evolved into quasi-presidential 'personality cult' type of system.

In your examples, it was the systems of government and state that sought to protect themselves and their countries from real or perceived weaknesses in their leader. I'm not sure that's the case with Russia. I'm not convinced that they have a legitimate functioning form of governance, nor want one. If it did, they would taken him for a long walk in the snow a while ago.
 

Bjays92

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Even more big news, Sweden has supposedly secured security guarantees from both the US and UK for the period between their application to NATO and when they actually join.

Sorry for a foreign language twitter thread.


We're witnessing a rapid geopolitical shift and global restructuring unlike anything certainly in the post cold war era.
 

kEiThZ

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When I said earlier the threat to Moldova is growing, I wasn't necessarily saying that there is a threat of long term Russian rule or occupation of Moldova, but there certainly could be regions of Moldova that get targeted, after all, their military is non existent.
Good luck to Russia if they try that. Romania next door is not going to take the upheaval of Moldova sitting down.

Also, Moldova is now completely surrounded by countries hostile to Russia. How are they going to sustain any conflict there?
 

Bjays92

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Good luck to Russia if they try that. Romania next door is not going to take the upheaval of Moldova sitting down.

Also, Moldova is now completely surrounded by countries hostile to Russia. How are they going to sustain any conflict there?
I'm not saying they will, I'm not saying it makes sense, but none of this makes sense.


Like I genuinely don't get it either, it's perplexing, but it doesn't mean the threat should be downplayed simply because it seems ridiculous, this is Russia were talking about.

Edit: I also doubt Moldova would get any aid, as their military is not in the position to handle it like Ukraine's is and no one would be willing to go to war with Russia over Moldova, they're tiny and insignificant of which Ukraine is neither and we won't go to war over.

Ukraine is the only country that could feasibly help defend Moldova but they're pretty tied up defending their own country right now.
 

kEiThZ

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Like I genuinely don't get it either, it's perplexing, but it doesn't mean the threat should be downplayed simply because it seems ridiculous, this is Russia were talking about.

My best guess is that they are trying to draw in NATO and keep some Ukrainian forces pinned in the West. Every brigade the Ukrainians have to keep outside Transnistria is one they can't use in Donbas.
 

Bjays92

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My best guess is that they are trying to draw in NATO and keep some Ukrainian forces pinned in the West. Every brigade the Ukrainians have to keep outside Transnistria is one they can't use in Donbas.
I agree. Certainly Moldova would not draw NATO in but it may very well become a risk to Ukraine that requires them to hold back troops.

In theory, should Russia capture Mykolaiv, they could also potentially launch a two front assault on Odessa. I still don't understand the goal to secure the black sea coastline beyond Crimea though. Landlocking Ukraine and creating what is essentially a blockade would certainly be something Russia would like, but that's a long narrow strip of land to defend and it would totally stretch your forces thin. It would be totally indefensible.
 

kEiThZ

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I still don't understand the goal to secure the black sea coastline beyond Crimea though. Landlocking Ukraine and creating what is essentially a blockade would certainly be something Russia would like, but that's a long narrow strip of land to defend and it would totally stretch your forces thin. It would be totally indefensible.

Which is why it's a BS goal. They want all of Ukraine. Which is exactly why they are de-emphasizing Ukrainian culture on their state media and keep calling it a made up country. This is a long held view in Russia. It's also why they want to control Transnistria and are so sensitive about the Baltics in NATO. Look at the map from their perspective and you'll get why Ukraine is not the end, but the beginning:

6501fd6a51aea2b01ba52601de28c69fd7a3f68e.jpg


Madman Aleksandr Dugin brought this all back in his 'Foundations of Geopolitics'.


If they can't seize all of Ukraine, the second place goal for them is to seize the coastline rendering Ukraine economically weak and dependent on Russian access.

Of course, all of this was before their military flopped hard. So now they talk about those goals. But they have no way of attaining them. And nobody has any idea what they'll do next. Not even the Russians, who never envisioned this plan (three decades in the making) falling apart.
 
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W. K. Lis

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Which is why it's a BS goal. They want all of Ukraine. Which is exactly why they are de-emphasizing Ukrainian culture on their state media and keep calling it a made up country. This is a long held view in Russia. It's also why they want to control Transnistria and are so sensitive about the Baltics in NATO. Look at the map from their perspective and you'll get why Ukraine is not the end, but the beginning:

6501fd6a51aea2b01ba52601de28c69fd7a3f68e.jpg


Madman Aleksandr Dugin brought this all back in his 'Foundations of Geopolitics'.


If they can't seize all of Ukraine, the second place goal for them is to seize the coastline rendering Ukraine economically weak and dependent on Russian access.

Of course, all of this was before their military flopped hard. So now they talk about those goals. But they have no way of attaining them. And nobody has any idea what they'll do next. Not even the Russians, who never envisioned this plan (three decades in the making) falling apart.
The pro-Putin Russians look at the Ukrainian language as a dialect not a language.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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Which is why it's a BS goal. They want all of Ukraine. Which is exactly why they are de-emphasizing Ukrainian culture on their state media and keep calling it a made up country. This is a long held view in Russia. It's also why they want to control Transnistria and are so sensitive about the Baltics in NATO. Look at the map from their perspective and you'll get why Ukraine is not the end, but the beginning:

6501fd6a51aea2b01ba52601de28c69fd7a3f68e.jpg


Madman Aleksandr Dugin brought this all back in his 'Foundations of Geopolitics'.


If they can't seize all of Ukraine, the second place goal for them is to seize the coastline rendering Ukraine economically weak and dependent on Russian access.

Of course, all of this was before their military flopped hard. So now they talk about those goals. But they have no way of attaining them. And nobody has any idea what they'll do next. Not even the Russians, who never envisioned this plan (three decades in the making) falling apart.

The interesting thing about Dugin is that while his values of Russia is diametrically opposed to that of the West, his interest is mainly containment of the Anglosphere (minus Australia) to the Western Hemisphere. His real serious impediment in Eurasia is China - to the point where he actually consider China to be their mortal enemy and wanted some form of dismantling (removing Xinjiang/Inner Mongolia/Tibet)/reshaping of the current country and shifting its interest to SE Asia. That's not something China would be too happy about in any form of "alliance" with Russia.

AoD
 

kEiThZ

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The interesting thing about Dugin is that while his values of Russia is diametrically opposed to that of the West, his interest is mainly containment of the Anglosphere (minus Australia) to the Western Hemisphere. His real serious impediment in Eurasia is China - to the point where he actually consider China to be their mortal enemy and wanted some form of dismantling (removing Xinjiang/Inner Mongolia/Tibet)/reshaping of the current country and shifting its interest to SE Asia. That's not something China would be too happy about in any form of "alliance" with Russia.

I've come to really despise Geopolitical theorists. He's as nuts as Western loons like John Mearsheimer. These folks have spent so much time looking at maps and reading history books that actual humans are entirely disposable to them, and even whole countries, in service of great power geopoltical machinations.

Russia could easily achieve most of its security and economic goals by cooperating with Ukraine and the EU. But that means a lot of the wealth creation which the Putin regime mops up would happen outside Russia. Putinistas like Dugin and even analysts like Zeihan will never admit to how much regime greed and survival drives those policies. It's all supposed to be inevitable because of "the map" (TM).

I sincerely hope that Ukraine is not just the end of Russia's imperialist dreams, but a lesson that the era of playing geopoltical games without any consideration of national agency is over (or at least very costly).
 

afransen

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That is the real tragedy of Russia. Had Russia struck a more conciliatory tone with the West, they could have a lot more influence, wealth, stability, etc. than they do now. With the path Russia is on now they are doomed to continual decline through economic isolation and demographic implosion.
 

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