Bjays92
Senior Member
More strikes in Crimea today at at least 3 different locations. Power station, miltary base, and railway.
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- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
Towered
Senior Member
Just a few days ago Zelensky said there was no chance of the war ending until Crimea is liberated.
Richard White
Senior Member
If Crimea is hit by Ukrainian attacks then it is a bad look for Putin.
Crimea is the Russian holy land so to speak. Catherine the Great invaded Crimea and ever since then it has been an integral part of Russia, they look at it as a glorious triumph having annexed it.
That being said, losing it would be like the US losing Texas to Mexico or the UK losing Gibraltar to Spain. It would be damning for Putin to lose Crimea to Ukraine and it would probably force those close to him to act.
afransen
Senior Member
kEiThZ
Superstar
It's good that everyone is pretending this is sabotage. That's de-escalatory from previous Russian rhetoric of how they'll attack NATO if Ukraine was given medium range weapons.
Bjays92
Senior Member
It's not clear it actually is medium range weapons however. Lots of the video that has been studied doesn't appear to show any missiles. Of course I'm not saying Ukraine hasn't got ATACMS because they very well could, but it's also distinctly possible these are covert operations or involve partisans.
lenaitch
Senior Member
Darned careless smokers - again.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Pretty clear to anybody who knows what they are looking at.
Consider three known facts:
- 10-15m craters require 500lb of explosive.
- No sighting of a missile.
- There's also not much of an elliptical profile on the craters indicating either a perpendicular impact or point detonation.
1) A special ops team hand carrying a full ton of explosives to create 4 large craters, after infiltrating several hundred km into enemy territory, on to a decently defended airbase. Or;
2) Strikes by ballistic missiles with 500 lb warheads. Ballistic missiles with terminal guidance can be made to fly straight down at supersonic speeds (which would be hard to see).
To add to the above, why would a SOF team use hundreds of pounds of explosive when they can disable an aircraft by tossing a grenade in the cockpit and engine intake?
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Northern Light
Superstar
FWIW, I'm claiming no expertise here............but offer this media snippet, which, as with all such snippets both in and out of war is to be taken with a grain of salt.
Source: https://www.businessinsider.in/inte...heir-us-training/amp_articleshow/93603558.cms
Source: https://www.businessinsider.in/inte...heir-us-training/amp_articleshow/93603558.cms
kEiThZ
Superstar
It's funny that people think Western officials are just going to come out and admit that they've either given SRBMs to the Ukrainians or enabled their indigenous production with tech cooperation.
SOF teams (or partisans) don't run around with tons of explosives. And if they did, they would use it in a lot more than just four places in a relatively tight grouping. I hope everyone understands the Rambo was a movie. It's not real life. That said, it's great if the Russians believe this is a possibility and dedicate thousands of troops to rear security.
SOF teams (or partisans) don't run around with tons of explosives. And if they did, they would use it in a lot more than just four places in a relatively tight grouping. I hope everyone understands the Rambo was a movie. It's not real life. That said, it's great if the Russians believe this is a possibility and dedicate thousands of troops to rear security.
lenaitch
Senior Member
As far as I'm concerned, the less the West reveals what they are supplying to Ukraine or allowing them to manufacture, the better.
Not knowing a lot about the potential ordnance here, is it possible that it was a medium range missile targeting a laser 'paint' by partisan forces?
Not knowing a lot about the potential ordnance here, is it possible that it was a medium range missile targeting a laser 'paint' by partisan forces?
kEiThZ
Superstar
Possible. But not likely.
1) Not necessary. The location of the ramp and parking areas was known. And NATO imagery would have confirmed the areas and their use.
2) Lasing is risky. The team that is lasing would have to get into a somewhat closer position. Higher risk of injury from blast or cook off and higher risk of detection. They would have to probably lase one incoming missile at a time (we saw dual simultaneous hits). And laser reflections are detectable with the right sensors.
If there were spotters and it's entirely possible, they'd be much safer using binoculars, laser range finder and satellite phone to simply readjust the GPS coordinates back to the launcher.
The best plan though is to wait until a satellite has just passed overhead. And to time the attack for a shift change when the next air patrol is relieving jets on station. That's when the most fueled and armed aircraft are on the ramp. This is likely why we saw a daytime attack.
kEiThZ
Superstar
It's happening again.
Bjays92
Senior Member
I agree with you, and the more attacks that happen the more clear that becomes. A explosions at ammo dumps deep behind frontlines could be partisan attacks, consistent deep strikes in Crimea are quite clearly missiles.
I was just pointing out there is no official word on the attacks though its becoming more and more obvious.
In other news, some sort of false flag may be brewing at the ZNPP, though what exactly Russia is planning is pretty up in the air.
kEiThZ
Superstar
If you want to see what a partisan strike looks like, take a look at this: