Richard White
Senior Member
I wonder what would happen if Russian nuclear technology fell into the hands of Ukrainian troops.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
How exactly would that happen?
Richard White
Senior Member
Putin does something stupid and the Ukrainians manage to get ahold of a device.
This is all hypothetical of course.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I'm not exactly sure how that could happen. The devices are dispatched far from the front. But in the eventuality that this happens, the weapons are equipped with Permissive Action Links which make arming them by unauthorized users near impossible. This is why when Ukraine had Soviet nuclear weapons after independence, they couldn't operationalize them. The worst the Ukrainians could do is use it as radiological weapon (dirty bomb). That would cause them substantial loss of Western support. So not likely.
Bjays92
Senior Member
Putin is an idiot. I cannot even begin to comprehend a situation where this is possible. You don't deploy nuclear warheads to the front.
If you just mean equipement that launches nukes, well that's also mostly irrelevant since most devices that can launch warheads can also lunch other types of missiles and shells.
DSC
Superstar
From today's Economist newsletter:
In the Donbas region (which comprises the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, both of which Mr Putin claims), it is tantalisingly close to routing its enemy. It is bearing down on weak Russian defensive lines near the towns of Kreminna and Svatove in north Luhansk. A Ukrainian military intelligence source predicted that Russia would soon be forced to retreat from Kreminna to save its equipment and artillery. Svatove was an equally important target for Ukraine: the site of large artillery dumps and a gateway to the rest of Luhansk. Pushing the Russians back to the lines that existed before the start of the current war in February would not be difficult after taking that key town, the source said.
That would be embarrassing enough for Russia’s strongman. But the battle for Kherson province is much more significant. The heart of a new land bridge linking Crimea with Russia, Kherson holds the key to Crimea’s water supply. As the gateway to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, it also determines Ukraine’s viability as a sea-trading state. Mr Putin has reportedly asked his generals to prioritise defence of the region. The New York Times has suggested that he has rejected commanders’ requests to retreat.
Ukraine has been exploiting this stubbornness by pinning Russian troops down in what appear unviable positions with their backs against the Dnieper river. Both the main bridges to safer Russian-held positions on the east bank have been destroyed by Ukraine, hindering the re-supply of ammunition and fuel to Russian soldiers on the western bank. Ukraine is also hitting pontoons and barge lifelines that Russia has been trying to build in their place. Russian soldiers on the west bank of the Dnieper are now in danger of encirclement with no obvious retreat route. Surrender may be their only option.
Pro-war voices in Russia are furious. Some are criticising their own generals for what they describe as corruption and sabotage, claiming they had warned about a Ukrainian build-up in Kherson. On October 1st Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s ruling warlord, whose men have done a lot of Mr Putin’s dirty work in Ukraine, said Russia’s military leadership had covered up the faults of an “incompetent” general in charge of Lyman. He “should be sent to the frontlines to wash off his shame with blood”, he cheerfully added. Margarita Simonyan, the Kremlin’s media mouthpiece, distanced both herself and her president from the defeats. “I love my people...not the generals...who take decisions that harm my country,” she said during a talk show.
This map from Guardian has more detail:
In the Donbas region (which comprises the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, both of which Mr Putin claims), it is tantalisingly close to routing its enemy. It is bearing down on weak Russian defensive lines near the towns of Kreminna and Svatove in north Luhansk. A Ukrainian military intelligence source predicted that Russia would soon be forced to retreat from Kreminna to save its equipment and artillery. Svatove was an equally important target for Ukraine: the site of large artillery dumps and a gateway to the rest of Luhansk. Pushing the Russians back to the lines that existed before the start of the current war in February would not be difficult after taking that key town, the source said.
That would be embarrassing enough for Russia’s strongman. But the battle for Kherson province is much more significant. The heart of a new land bridge linking Crimea with Russia, Kherson holds the key to Crimea’s water supply. As the gateway to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, it also determines Ukraine’s viability as a sea-trading state. Mr Putin has reportedly asked his generals to prioritise defence of the region. The New York Times has suggested that he has rejected commanders’ requests to retreat.
Ukraine has been exploiting this stubbornness by pinning Russian troops down in what appear unviable positions with their backs against the Dnieper river. Both the main bridges to safer Russian-held positions on the east bank have been destroyed by Ukraine, hindering the re-supply of ammunition and fuel to Russian soldiers on the western bank. Ukraine is also hitting pontoons and barge lifelines that Russia has been trying to build in their place. Russian soldiers on the west bank of the Dnieper are now in danger of encirclement with no obvious retreat route. Surrender may be their only option.
Pro-war voices in Russia are furious. Some are criticising their own generals for what they describe as corruption and sabotage, claiming they had warned about a Ukrainian build-up in Kherson. On October 1st Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s ruling warlord, whose men have done a lot of Mr Putin’s dirty work in Ukraine, said Russia’s military leadership had covered up the faults of an “incompetent” general in charge of Lyman. He “should be sent to the frontlines to wash off his shame with blood”, he cheerfully added. Margarita Simonyan, the Kremlin’s media mouthpiece, distanced both herself and her president from the defeats. “I love my people...not the generals...who take decisions that harm my country,” she said during a talk show.
This map from Guardian has more detail:
kEiThZ
Superstar
The only saving grace for these guys is that their army is falling apart so fast, they might not make it to the front in time to die.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Assuming Putin is mad enough to believe the US would not destroy him, or does not care, the ideal targets for nuclear strikes would be those beyond the territories where the Russians have to fight. Lviv seems a good target, since it would disrupt NATO shipments from Poland, and any fallout would first be filtered by Belarusian and Ukrainian lungs before it got to Russia.
This would almost surely provoke NATO Article 5 and a solid escalation of the Alliance’s involvement. But if you didn’t GAF about tomorrow, Lviv is a good target for a tactical nuke.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Lviv is a strategic target. Not a tactical one. And Poland is defended by American Patriot Batteries. This isn't NATO's first rodeo.
Bjays92
Senior Member
Lviv would be a strategic target, as would Kyiv. The frontlines would not be good targets for a multitude of reasons including that Russia could not navigate a nuclear battlefield with their current equipment. Other strategic locations, military bases, logistics hubs etc. would also be prime targets. One big bomb to essentially knock out targets that are substantially helping Ukraine supply their troops and sites that could not otherwise be easily destroyed.
That is of course assuming Putin is employing any level of strategy here at all, which I am no longer so certain of.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I'm not worried about a large attack. He may well get a coup for even suggesting nukes. Almost guaranteed if he suggests a large attack on a NATO city.
Bjays92
Senior Member
Apparently the times reported that NATO is warning Russia is set to hold a nuclear test on the Ukrainian border. Will be interesting to see if it happens.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Saw it. The information is spotty. Could be a test of a nuclear uuv in the White Sea or the Black Sea. Nobody knows (in public at least). Tests are escalatory signaling. Won't change anything that NATO or Ukraine is doing.
kEiThZ
Superstar
kEiThZ
Superstar
Also, remember what I said about fires?