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- Thread starter Towered
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Northern Light
Superstar
Source:
kEiThZ
Superstar
There's a great thread from a Ukrainian combat engineer who claims to have scouted the river crossing. I urge everyone to read this:
Key takeaways:
- This is devolved decision-making like a NATO military. This was probably a Lieutenant or Captain who recon'd the area with a laser rangefinder and a small forward observation team.
- Shows high technical and tactical competence. He was able to figure out where they were likely to cross, what capabilities would be required to cross and what indicators the scouts had to look for, even in a degraded or confused battlespace.
- Demonstrates high discipline that they waited until the Russians had sufficiently set up and moved enough forces to the bridge.
- Shows Russian incompetence. They seem to move around the battlefield in a manner that doesn't anticipate Ukrainian long range fires (artillery or drone strikes). They seem to have bunched up an entire battalion in the kill zone that the approaches to the river crossing. They don't seem to have done any scouting ahead to anticipate Ukrainian fires.
The supposed 1500 KIA estimate is probably a bit high. But even if the Ukrainians killed a tenth of that, it's absolutely incredible they were able to kill a battalion's worth armour in one encounter with zero Ukrainian losses.
I don't see how the Russians can keep up this kind of mismatch in competence, even with their higher tolerance for casualties. At a certain point, they will not have enough troops to conduct any offence. And by July, if they don't get massive reinforcements, they won't have enough troops and vehicles to hold the territory they have. Worse yet, the more casualties they take, the higher the capability mismatch in favour of Ukraine, enabling the Ukrainians to inflict an ever spiraling cycle of higher and higher casualties. Eventually, the Russian Army could just collapse in the field with Russians starting to surrender or desert en masse. Kinda like the Iraqis in the Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq.
Key takeaways:
- This is devolved decision-making like a NATO military. This was probably a Lieutenant or Captain who recon'd the area with a laser rangefinder and a small forward observation team.
- Shows high technical and tactical competence. He was able to figure out where they were likely to cross, what capabilities would be required to cross and what indicators the scouts had to look for, even in a degraded or confused battlespace.
- Demonstrates high discipline that they waited until the Russians had sufficiently set up and moved enough forces to the bridge.
- Shows Russian incompetence. They seem to move around the battlefield in a manner that doesn't anticipate Ukrainian long range fires (artillery or drone strikes). They seem to have bunched up an entire battalion in the kill zone that the approaches to the river crossing. They don't seem to have done any scouting ahead to anticipate Ukrainian fires.
The supposed 1500 KIA estimate is probably a bit high. But even if the Ukrainians killed a tenth of that, it's absolutely incredible they were able to kill a battalion's worth armour in one encounter with zero Ukrainian losses.
I don't see how the Russians can keep up this kind of mismatch in competence, even with their higher tolerance for casualties. At a certain point, they will not have enough troops to conduct any offence. And by July, if they don't get massive reinforcements, they won't have enough troops and vehicles to hold the territory they have. Worse yet, the more casualties they take, the higher the capability mismatch in favour of Ukraine, enabling the Ukrainians to inflict an ever spiraling cycle of higher and higher casualties. Eventually, the Russian Army could just collapse in the field with Russians starting to surrender or desert en masse. Kinda like the Iraqis in the Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Very hard to do unfortunately. The Ukrainians have nothing that can reach that far. And they can't use aircraft because of Russian air defences. But if the breakthrough to the Crimean peninsula, all bets are off.
Northern Light
Superstar
Newsweek had done an interesting piece on 'mysterious fires in Russia'........
In many cases there certainly isn't clear cause and effect evidence of Ukrainian action..........however, that's a lot of bad luck the Russians are having....
www.newsweek.com
In many cases there certainly isn't clear cause and effect evidence of Ukrainian action..........however, that's a lot of bad luck the Russians are having....
Every mysterious fire to break out in Russia recently—Full list
Russia has still not elaborated on the sources of these unexplained fires.
www.newsweek.com
kEiThZ
Superstar
When I talk of Russian incompetence....
They are attempting to cross at the same place again.
And they give away their positions.
They are attempting to cross at the same place again.
And they give away their positions.
Richard White
Senior Member
Ukraine war brought to you by the makers of Chernobyl.
Don't forget these are the same people who thought disengaging failsafes to do a nuclear experiment was a good idea.
kEiThZ
Superstar
kEiThZ
Superstar
Labour Day is my timeline too....
www.newsweek.com
Military expert gives Putin's forces 90 days in Ukraine
A military expert told Newsweek he feels Putin's forces are wearing thin and can't continue the war for much longer in Ukraine.
www.newsweek.com
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I would not be surprised if this guy is invited to tea soon. But, if his prediction comes true and there are soon to be one million NATO-armed, US/EU-financed Ukrainians... well, Russia's special operation in Ukraine is over.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
The Ukrainians called up some reserves. But they actually never declared general mobilization. Zelenskyy has maintained that Ukrainians need to keep the economy going and that is just as much a priority.
The Ukrainians have the ability to mobilize a million. But unlike the Russians they aren't dumb enough to mobilize troops they don't have equipment for.
The Ukrainians have the ability to mobilize a million. But unlike the Russians they aren't dumb enough to mobilize troops they don't have equipment for.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
I can't help but notice how annoying that host is - even through the captions.
AoD
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The anchor Olga Skabeyeva, knows a call from the State TV Kommissar is coming.
"However much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us"
Ouch.
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Towered
Senior Member
Probably some government goof off-screen signaling to her to push back against the VERY inconvenient facts being unexpectedly presented...