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TOareaFan

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Almost certainly, a carbon tax was part of the funding plan and now it's necessary for Canada to meet it's promises.

That said, Wynne is getting a huge gift with the collapse of oil. GDP growth for Ontario in the second half of 2015 has skyrocketed and 2016/2017 are looking like they'll be big growth years (2.5% to 3%).

That adds about $4B/year to the revenue pot for the 2017/2018 budget. Makes closing the deficit gap much easier and greatly increases Ontario's borrowing limit for capital projects. The downside is tenders will probably go up (parts/components sourced from outside Canada).
wasn't the 2015 budget based on growth averaging around 2.6% a year leading to the balance forecast for 2017/2018? Is growth of 2.5% - 3% not sort of inline with that projection rather than "big growth"?
 

drum118

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ssiguy2

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Ontario is not the only one reaping benefits from low oil prices, so are transit agencies.

These lower fuel prices are saving transit agencies big bucks and particularly on big diesel operations like GO. I do think electrification is necessary but I think there are other priorities such as expansion to Peterborough/Central line, service to Brantford, Cobourg, Niagara, and Bolton. I don't think the Barrie line should be an electrification priority as it has large sections with no stops and it's frequent stop lines {ie Lakeshore West} where diesel loses time and costs a lot more.
 

EnviroTO

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I do think electrification is necessary but I think there are other priorities such asexpansion to Peterborough/Central line, service to Brantford, Cobourg

The cost benefit analysis is going to be far more supportive of investments that improve performance on existing lines that would have frequent service through more developed areas than setting up initial service that would be more lightly used and infrequent. That isn't to say that extending service to those areas shouldn't be done, but when you divide the costs by the riders that experience of the benefit and the reduced costs related to increasing the number of trips that staff and equipment can do in a day it likely wouldn't be a priority on transit measures alone.
 

crs1026

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The article seems to suggest that they are built with dual electrical systems, rather than electric-diesel combo's.

The trouble with electrification is that it is such a huge project, it could absorb all the available capital for years - if it were done as an all-out effort. The old adage "eat the elephant one steak at a time" applies. Also "Start small and learn as you go". Perhaps UPX and the Union/Willowbrook approaches are enough for the first iteration.

It would be nice to quantify this. How many tons of carbon would be removed if we started a service to Peterboro or Brantford and got some number of daily commuters out of their cars and onto a diesel train? How many tons if we electrify one existing service of diesel trains? The hard numbers might surprise us all.

- Paul
 

crs1026

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That adds about $4B/year to the revenue pot for the 2017/2018 budget. Makes closing the deficit gap much easier and greatly increases Ontario's borrowing limit for capital projects. The downside is tenders will probably go up (parts/components sourced from outside Canada).

The added revenue is good news, but I'm just cynical enough of 'Wynne math' to fear that $4B in added revenue will be seized as justification to bump up the deficit yet again. Her budget was already barely prudent. I won't be impressed until we hear what new revenue tools are being implemented.

- Paul
 

rbt

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wasn't the 2015 budget based on growth averaging around 2.6% a year leading to the balance forecast for 2017/2018? Is growth of 2.5% - 3% not sort of inline with that projection rather than "big growth"?

Yeah, budgets have consistently over-estimated future growth in Ontario since 2007. Ontario budget predictions, despite consistently missing, have actually been conservative compared to private industry predictions by the banks.

Anyway, for the first time in about 8 years they might actually get the predicted growth and not be left scrambling and deferring.

I'm really hoping that many GO RER contracts get tendered before the next provincial election as I'm not at all convinced current timelines will survive that election. One pickle, how do you tender a big electrification deployment before the Lake Shore East test?
 
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TOareaFan

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Yeah, budgets have consistently over-estimated future growth in Ontario since 2007. For the first time in 8 years they might actually get it.
Right, the collapse of oil and the growth that it has created in some other parts of the country (Ontario and BC particularly) have done one thing with regards to the Wynne budgets...that is they have brought growth in line with the projection that was in the budget....and makes it more likely that they will meet their objectives which, at the time, seemed to be based on extremely rosy growth projections....but it is hardly a $4B a year revenue bonus on top of those projections.

The more likely to reach those "in balance by 2017/18" projections does have a large new caveat though....that is what is the medium and long term impact of selling 60% of Hydro One. While the money coming in is nice for transit and other infrastructure, we still have to see how we cope with selling 60% of the cash flow from Hydro and, while we all like transit, how we cope with using that money to build things that will inevitably need ongoing operating subsidies.

I am still very doubtful Ontario will be in balance by 2017/18 and without replacement for that cash we pv'd and sold, not sure where we go from there.
 

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rbt

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.but it is hardly a $4B a year revenue bonus on top of those projections.

It is a $4B a year bonus on top of where the recent trend of 'misses' put them. As recently as this spring I thought 2017/18 was a guaranteed miss; now less so.

Fed's lowering interest rates would give the province another chunk of breathing room.


The more likely to reach those "in balance by 2017/18" projections does have a large new caveat though....that is what is the medium and long term impact of selling 60% of Hydro One. While the money coming in is nice for transit and other infrastructure, we still have to see how we cope with selling 60% of the cash flow from Hydro and, while we all like transit, how we cope with using that money to build things that will inevitably need ongoing operating subsidie

I am still very doubtful Ontario will be in balance by 2017/18 and without replacement for that cash we pv'd and sold, not sure where we go from there.

GO's operating subsidy is still within the realm of being covered by a fare increase over a couple years. Their ongoing capital maintenance is a small price to pay for the indirect revenue it gives the province.


Local transit would likely suffer first (reposition gas tax at Metrolinx, remove local component). The ROI on TTC expansion has been horrible for the province in the last couple decades.
 
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dowlingm

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This is a real dual-mode loco used by AMT (the GO Transit of Montreal).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALP-45DP
After the derailment of 1352 in Montreal Central, AMT and CN had to change some practices about track maintenance because of the differing forces produced by the 45DPs weight and truck type (per the TSB report). I have wondered if AMT might look at acquiring either EMU multilevels or electric locomotives for some Deux-Montagnes services if GO took some DPs off their hands. I think AMT reckoned CN/CP would sign off on further system electrification which hasn't turned out to be the case.
 

drum118

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The new platform for the first section at Bronte has been pour enclosing the snow melting system. The roof is on the 2 shelters, but no flashing on them. Window frames going in the east shelter. Would say off hand that this section should be open by March to allow the west section to be rebuilt.

Metrolinx needs to come clean as to what is really going on with Burlington station as I saw next to no change with the inside of it from my Oct visit. The only change in side is the washrooms are open. The men washroom has 2 of everything with 3 sinks.

No work on the 2 new elevators or the fare counter, let alone the whole thing.

Crews working on the rest of the station to the east that will see 2 sets of stairs to the east tunnel. Post supports for rest of the walkway have been pour.

Looking at the site plan, there is 8 bus bays with parking taking place between the walkway and the corridor.

By the time this station is finally completed by June, the condos next doors will be a few floors above grade considering it only got underway in Feb this year and this project started 3 years ago.

Because of Bell being late getting to my place, miss the plan train I wanted to take and it had the new cab car on it. Couldn't see if it was 304 or another as it past me at Burlington.
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innsertnamehere

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Drove by the Barrie double tracking on Langstaff today, the tracks seem complete north of Langstaff. The crossing of Langstaff has been upgraded and tracks run across it, but end shortly south of it. Its exciting to see it all come together.
 

crs1026

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The original announcement was for double tracking from York University Station (mp 12.6) to Rutherford Road (mp 16.5).

Is there any sign of construction south of Langstaff?

Sounds like the CTC project on the north end is almost complete. The signals are turned on, but only in test mode - the line is still working under OCS for the time being.

- Paul
 

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