[androiduk]

I was curious how much increased rush hour transit usage would be realized by an average 50 storey condo in the Yonge corridor between Bloor & Front so I did some calculations using demographic stats from the City of Toronto website and other sources. I used an average of 8 units per floor and 2 occupants per unit for a total of 800 people in a 50 storey condo.

800 people minus 25% who are too young/old to be in the workforce =
600 people minus 7.5% who are unemployed =
555 people minus 2.5% who bike to work =
540 people minus 16% self employed =
455 people minus 10% who work outside the core =
410 people minus 10% who would take the bus =
370

If you use a 3 hour rush hour window, that would be 125 people per hour.
There are approx. 20 trains per hour (every 3 mins) which translates into about 40 people per train. there are 6 cars on each train which further translates into less than 1 person per car. Extrapolating this, you could build 10 50 storeys condos downtown and capacity would increase by about 8 people per car during rush hour.

 

[gweed123]

Hmm, very interesting analysis, thanks for that! It just goes to show you that the ridership at these existing and planned suburban density nodes, despite the high density, still get the majority of their ridership from transfers, not from walk-ins. Based on the numbers you have there, you would need a sea of condos surrounding the station in order to make it otherwise.

 

[SixPoints]

You haven't even included those who walk to work but you can't really gather stats on this. I'm assuming the number is quite high. I would suspect if one works in the financial district and lives downtown, they wouldn't even consider taking transit unless they lived north of college, west of Bathurst or east of Parliament. Most of the downtown condos fall into this area so I suspect a lot of the downtowners don't use a lot of transit. Also, I've been taking the subway/streetcar down to the financial district everyday for the last 15 years and I've noticed not many commuters get on the trains south of Bloor. This is due in part to the over-crowding but also due to the fact that many prefer to walk.

 

[mpd618]

Apart from the walking-to-work factor (pretty substantial, much larger than cycling), there's also driving-to-work and commuting to work during non-rush-hours. So the impact is quite a bit smaller than your estimate, I think.

 

[Jaye101]

I was curious how much increased rush hour transit usage would be realized by an average 50 storey condo in the Yonge corridor between Bloor & Front so I did some calculations using demographic stats from the City of Toronto website and other sources. I used an average of 8 units per floor and 2 occupants per unit for a total of 800 people in a 50 storey condo.

800 people minus 25% who are to young/old to be in the workforce =
600 people minus 7.5% who are unemployed =
555 people minus 2.5% who bike to work =
540 people minus 16% self employed =
455 people minus 10% who work outside the core =
410 people minus 10% who would take the bus =
370

If you use a 3 hour rush hour window, that would be 125 people per hour.
There are approx. 20 trains per hour (every 3 mins) which translates into about 40 people per train. there are 6 cars on each train which further translates into less than 1 person per car. Extrapolating this, you could build 10 50 storeys condos downtown and capacity would increase by about 8 people per car during rush hour.

This is an alright analysis.

We should also recognize the fact that Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke are included into those figures that you based your calculations on. I think we can assume that the 25% of people that are too young or too old to work is significantly lower than the average of Toronto, I think we can also assume that the unemployment level would be lower as well. The % of people who bike would be significantly higher, as well as those who walk. It will be interesting to see how our transit system holds up and expands as our city changes!

 

[marsh]

I think your 25% estimate of people to old or to young to be working is too high if you are only looking at new towers on the Yonge Street Core. I would expect most of the people living in these condos are young and therefore are in the workforce. Also you have discounted 7.5% for unemployed. Again, if you are unemployed I doubt very much you are living in a downtown condo (at least not for long). Finally, I live at bloor and yonge and I can tell you alot of people still take the subway/bus. Not everyone walks -especially older people or people with disabilities like myself. So I think you've underestimate the impact.

 

[rbt]

Not everyone walks -especially older people or people with disabilities like myself. So I think you've underestimate the impact.

Even if all 800 ride the subway you still only have 2 people per car.

Also, for a condo like 1 King (within the Bloor to Front portion of Yonge) I think you can expect very few residents ride the subway to work.

When I lived at 25 Grenville it seemed about half the people leaving the front/back doors turned toward Bay Street and not toward Yonge. A minimum of 50% of commuters in that building walked to work in 2003.This was true with 633 Bay Street when I lived there too.

At X-Condos (Jarvis and Charles) about 50% of on foot commuters are leaving by the front door in the morning. You take the back door to get to Bloor and the front door exits onto Charles. This ratio noticeably changes when it is raining with more people exiting via the back door, presumably to take transit to work instead of walking.

Lots of drivers leaving in the morning at X-Condos too. Possibly as high as 1/4th of morning commuters.


I think he has actually over-estimated the impact of a new condo on Yonge between Front and Bloor for subway ridership; particularly south of College.

 

[Chuck]

Why not run the numbers for an office tower? 10,000 new workers in a super tall, of which a third take the TTC, of which 80% take the subway. For an office environment, rush hour is really only 2 hours. That means about 67 people per train at 20 trains per hour.

 

[rbt]

Why not run the numbers for an office tower? 10,000 new workers in a super tall, of which a third take the TTC, of which 80% take the subway. For an office environment, rush hour is really only 2 hours. That means about 67 people per train at 20 trains per hour.

Yup. An office tower will certainly have an impact though due to capacity issues with TTC, GO, and the streets; each office tower seems to come with 20 new condo towers with many workers can walking to work.

Toronto will get a supertall office tower within 5 years of the DRL opening or GO having frequent (15 minute) all day service on one of their lines.

 

[spider]

800 people minus 25% who are to young/old to be in the workforce =

You shouldn't assume that those too young to be in the workforce sit at home all day, most of them go to school and they travel on the TTC. As much as 40% of the riders using the TTC in my suburban area are students. Retirees don't sit at home all day either although they probably choose not to use transit during rush hours.

 

[BurlOak]

I used an average of 8 units per floor and 2 occupants per unit for a total of 800 people in a 50 storey condo.

If you use a 3 hour rush hour window, that would be 125 people per hour.
There are approx. 20 trains per hour (every 3 mins) which translates into about 40 people per train. there are 6 cars on each train which further translates into less than 1 person per car. Extrapolating this, you could build 10 50 storeys condos downtown and capacity would increase by about 8 people per car during rush hour.

Is 8 units per floor accurate. I would have expected a lot more.

Also, the 40 shold be 6 people per train (125 people / hr divide by 20 train / hr). I think that was a typo because it does become 1 person per car as you stated.

 

[rbt]

Is 8 units per floor accurate. I would have expected a lot more.

8 to 10 in a square point tower. Something larger/rectangular like X-Condos has 12 to 14.

A very large podium like those in WaterParkCity (219 Fort York) can have 45 units per floor.

 

[Memph]

Basically 400-500 units counts as a large condo tower by DT Toronto standards (ex FIVE), and I think Aura is the largest at 985 units.

As for mode of transport for downtown residents compared to elsewhere, here are the stats for the census tracts in the area in question

Tract 35 (Yonge-Uni-Queen-College)
Walk/bike: 59%
Transit: 23%
Car: 17%

Tract 62.02
Walk/bike: 41%
Transit: 35%
Car: 20%

Tract 62.01
Walk/bike: 45%
Transit: 35%
Car: 17%

Tract 14 (Financial District)
Walk/bike: 46%
Transit: 30%
Car: 21%

Tract 15
Walk/bike: 56%
Transit: 22%
Car: 20%

Tract 34
Walk/bike: 46%
Transit: 31%
Car: 21%

Tract 63.01
Walk/bike: 46%
Transit: 39%
Car: 14%

Tract 63.02
Walk/bike: 39%
Transit: 42%
Car: 18%

Tract 89 (Yorkville)
Walk/bike: 30%
Transit: 30%
Car: 37%

Tract 88
Walk/bike: 31%
Transit: 42%
Car: 27%

So about 30-35% take transit, but that could also be buses or streetcars, as well as the BD subway or University branch, not to mention that they would be going both North and South.

The numbers are from Statcan 2006, and do not include people who work at home.