[Oddball]

Anyone else excited for the Draft Lottery on Saturday?

I worked up a spread sheet that shows' the Flames' present odds in the lotto. The odds will change depending on who wins what round, but going in they look like this:

Calgary Picks 1st: 8.50%
Calgary Picks 2nd: 8.77%
Calgary Picks 3rd: 9.01%
Calgary Picks 5th: 9.92%
Calgary Picks 6th: 35.46%
Calgary Picks 7th: 25.47%
Calgary Picks 8th: 3.70%

The sum of those numbers is 100.83% due to rounding error, but it pretty closely reflects the odds. I'm a little disappointed that despite finishing 5th from the bottom the have a ~60% chance of picking 6th or 7th. Still they have a ~26% chance of picking 1st, 2nd or 3rd which would be the highest pick in franchise history.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Calgary gets to pick 2nd or 3rd and takes one of the two big Finnish right wingers slated to go in those spots. It's going to be an interesting off season for the team.

Just for Silence&Motion, here are Toronto's odds:

Toronto Picks 1st: 20.00%
Toronto Picks 2nd: 17.49%
Toronto Picks 3rd: 15.02%
Toronto Picks 4th: 47.49%

 

[Marcanadian]

Well it looks like at least a Canadian team will get the first pick. What a dismal year it's been.

 

[Oddball]

Well it looks like at least a Canadian team will get the first pick. What a dismal year it's been.

The consensus number 1 pick is an American who plays in Europe though. ( I'm sure Don isn't too interested in that.) I think it would have been much more meaningful for the first overall pick to be coming to Canada if it were a top Canadian prospect instead. I heard the consensus is starting to falter though and that Patrick Laine of Finland could go number 1 in some people's opinion. I'm considerably more interested in him for the Flames.

For the Leafs, I wonder if they'd be open to a swap with Phoenix if they won. Mathews for Phoneix's ~6th overall + Dylan Strome + (other stuff?). I think he was the guy they wanted most badly after CMD last year, but kinda got screwed the way the lotto shook down.

In regards to the betterment of pro hockey in Canada, it'll be much more interesting to see what happens with Stamkos over the summer. Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto are all expected to make serious pitches for his services if he does indeed reach the open market.