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NoahB

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Relief Line South wasn't far enough along by the time it was cancelled for construction to have begun by now. They were only 10% finished the design in early 2019, and COVID would've happened regardless.

The city was ready enough to start shopping for TBMs at the time.

 
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NoahB

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I could swear they were past 15% when it was cancelled.

From the Globe and Mail link on Jan 19 2019:
After the event, DRL project head Malcolm MacKay said that 10 per cent of the design work had been done. In the process of reaching that point, he said, the team came up with various ways to save time. Mr. MacKay said that shovels could go in the ground for the project by next year, including starting work on the excavation where the machine that bores the tunnel will be launched.
 
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warrens

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Ultimately I don't think it's the route that's the big problem.
Scarborough wasn't really designed to support higher order transit.
The SSE route isn't exactly brimming with potential. Even the city has admitted it doesn't expect that corridor will see significant densification.

You really ought to know by now that TTC subway stations don't create densification on their own. Runnymede, Jane, Royal York, Ossington, Coxwell, Lansdowne, Pape, Woodbine, Dupont... the list goes on and on.

Serving already-extant needs has a lot of validity on its own -- and the Lawrence/McCowan stop makes a lot of sense here because of the hospital.

Why does their need to be a subway loop? There's no demand for it.

There's plenty of justification for an eastern extension to the subway on Sheppard. In addition to being able to provide a connection at Agincourt GO, the Sheppard corridor is one of the densest areas in the city outside of downtown. The street itself is an enormously busy east-west route. Dozens of apartment buildings, tons of commercial and retail businesses. Not as busy as Finch, sure, but surely busier than Steeles or York Mills/Ellesmere. If "densification" is what gets you out of bed in the morning, there are endless opportunities for that, too.

1601165410618.png


But getting downtown from this part of town is really tough -- I know someone who commutes from one of the apartment buildings right on Sheppard, to the corner of Yonge & Bloor. They despise the Yonge portion of the route, especially in the afternoons. Coming in to downtown from the east via this so-called "subway loop", combined with the offsetting effect of the OL, would provide a sizable amount of capacity relief on the Yonge line.

After all, Sheppard is tied with Eglinton for 4th-busiest subway station in this city, and thus one of the largest contributors to the daily crunch.
 
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TheTigerMaster

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If the Ford government wanted to move forward with the DRL/OL as expeditiously as possible, they would’ve proceeded with the Relief Line South as planned, and provided funding for the northern portion. The result would’ve been a project of similar scope and cost as the OL, plausibly delivered by 2028 (at least the southern portion), and likely under construction today.
Relief Line South wasn't far enough along by the time it was cancelled for construction to have begun by now. They were only 10% finished the design in early 2019, and COVID would've happened regardless.
I could swear they were past 15% when it was cancelled.
From the Globe and Mail link on Jan 19 2019:
Could be in between 10-15%. Considering that the Relief Line was officially cancelled in June.

We're kind of grasping at straws here. Barring political interference, the Relief Line South would've been under construction years before the OL, whose components won't see financing close until 2022 at the earliest. The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028, while the OL's timeline is a big question mark at this point. The government claims one of their primary motivations for moving forward with the OL was the purported faster timelines. We knew from Day 1 that the faster timelines weren't all that credible, but now it's near certain that the OL will be delivered years after the Relief Line would've.
 

TheTigerMaster

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RFQ, RFP, and financial close for the Ontario Line have been pushed back.

View attachment 271725

We shouldn't gloss over this part of the article either

Is The P3 Model Falling Apart?

Two revisions in the large GO project procurement model involve a change from private sector financing to traditional government borrowing.

This suggests that the market willingness to finance projects on behalf of the government, or at least to do so at rates competitive with direct government borrowing, may be on the wane. That implies that the “P3” model may be coming unglued.

At its heart, this was always seen as an accounting mechanism to shift debt off of the government’s books, and without this shell game, a major argument for P3s could vanish.

With the government potentially having to take on more debt to fund these projects, I fear we'll see scope cutbacks, not just on the OL, but on other major projects as well.
 

toronto647

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We're kind of grasping at straws here. Barring political interference, the Relief Line South would've been under construction years before the OL, whose components won't see financing close until 2022 at the earliest. The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028, while the OL's timeline is a big question mark at this point. The government claims one of their primary motivations for moving forward with the OL was the purported faster timelines. We knew from Day 1 that the faster timelines weren't all that credible, but now it's near certain that the OL will be delivered years after the Relief Line would've.

Regardless in the next elections (Spring 2021 likely) the Conservatives will win and there will be no other option besides Ontario Line. At this point lets just stop crying over spilt milk and move on. Lets get shovels in the ground and get a relief line. A relief line is better than no relief line.
 

Coolstar

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The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028,
It was to be delivered by 2029. Nevertheless, I'll admit my support for the Ontario Line has been wavering recently but until more info about the line is released, (Platform length, trains, guideway .etc.) then it'll be easier to determine if the Ontario Line was truly a big mistake or a better project than one thinks. In general, give the line a bit more time to prove itself. It would be interesting to see if Del Duca is elected and brings back the Relief Line.

Regardless in the next elections (Spring 2021 likely) the Conservatives will win and there will be no other option besides Ontario Line. At this point lets just stop crying over spilt milk and move on. Lets get shovels in the ground and get a relief line. A relief line is better than no relief line.
Yeah I agree. We've been complaining about how the Relief Line is better for more than a year now. (And here's to many more years to come) but it's time to move on and move forward with the Ontario Line for the time being.
 
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syn

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You really ought to know by now that TTC subway stations don't create densification on their own. Runnymede, Jane, Royal York, Ossington, Coxwell, Lansdowne, Pape, Woodbine, Dupont... the list goes on and on.

Serving already-extant needs has a lot of validity on its own -- and the Lawrence/McCowan stop makes a lot of sense here because of the hospital.

That was my point. Exactly why a subway extension makes little sense.

The stations you mention are along a major commercial throughfare, close to stations with significant ridership.

There's plenty of justification for an eastern extension to the subway on Sheppard. In addition to being able to provide a connection at Agincourt GO, the Sheppard corridor is one of the densest areas in the city outside of downtown. The street itself is an enormously busy east-west route. Dozens of apartment buildings, tons of commercial and retail businesses. Not as busy as Finch, sure, but surely busier than Steeles or York Mills/Ellesmere. If "densification" is what gets you out of bed in the morning, there are endless opportunities for that, too.

Not if there's an SSE.

The Sheppard corridor being one of the densest corridors in the city outside of downtown? Is that the reason She


After all, Sheppard is tied with Eglinton for 4th-busiest subway station in this city, and thus one of the largest contributors to the daily crunch.

According to 2018 ridership stats it's not 4th busiest...and for an interchange station the ridership is kind of where you'd expect it.

Sheppard/Yonge is a fairly built up area, but Sheppard itself is rather suburban in nature. It's a long, long way from having the commerical and residential density necessary to justify a subway. Having two subway lines meet here:


is a colossal waste of money at this point.

That money should be invested to properly build a full capacity subway line for the OL/DRL.
 

Adjei

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The Relief Line is dead and it's not coming back. Barring some epic miracle, Ontario Line is what will be built. I don't know if anyone has noticed but the coronavirus has greatly helped Doug Ford. Before it, he was struggling in the polls but since Covid and he has made a big turnaround. I didn't vote for him last and didnt really like him but he has impressed me. For the next 2 to 3 years controlling Covid 19 is what the world will be worried about. Nobody is even talking about Del Duca or Horwarth. People see Doug Ford on TV giving them assurance in these scary times. Even look at the current polling numbers:

"A recent survey by The Angus Reid Institute found 45 per cent of decided voters said they would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative party, up from 36 per cent in February.

The NDP were a distant second with 25 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 22 per cent and the Greens at four per cent.

The Premier’s personal approval rating now sits at 66 per cent, according to Angus Reid, up from 31 per cent in February."



Del Duca who is being touted here as the saviour of the Relief Line is in a distant third. Barring some miracle in which he is able to make up all that room, I dont' see him or anyone else coming to replace Doug Ford with coronavirus dominating the world for the next two years or even more. Promising to cancel the Ontario Line to bring in the Relief Line is not going to get you any extra votes and it may even cost you votes. Let's move on. The Relief Line is dead.
 

warrens

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We're kind of grasping at straws here. Barring political interference, the Relief Line South would've been under construction years before the OL, whose components won't see financing close until 2022 at the earliest. The RLS was planned to be delivered by 2028, while the OL's timeline is a big question mark at this point. The government claims one of their primary motivations for moving forward with the OL was the purported faster timelines. We knew from Day 1 that the faster timelines weren't all that credible, but now it's near certain that the OL will be delivered years after the Relief Line would've.

Huh? I promise you won't be able to find a reliable quote from city officials or a TTC staffer for "by 2028". Where in the world did you get that number from.... Keesmaat's mayoral election platform? She's basically the only insider who promised to find a way to get it done that quickly.

You can view this document from an April 2019 city hall meeting agenda, describing 2027 as the "mid-point" of the construction, with a completion timeline around 2030-2031.
 

warrens

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According to 2018 ridership stats it's not 4th busiest...and for an interchange station the ridership is kind of where you'd expect it.

Ah yes. I was looking at the 2014 numbers published on the TTC web site, when the order was Bloor/Yonge, St. George, Union, Sheppard. The updated 2018 numbers show that Sheppard is now tied(ish) for 5th place with Kennedy. It doesn't change my point though -- 80,000 people a day is still very, very busy, especially when it's all going on the Yonge line. This is absolutely, 100% the problem we're hoping to see resolved.

Sheppard/Yonge is a fairly built up area, but Sheppard itself is rather suburban in nature. It's a long, long way from having the commerical and residential density necessary to justify a subway. Having two subway lines meet here:

McCowan/Sheppard is more built up today than the entire area around Kipling Station was when it opened in 1980. It was very suburban at the time... the power lines were the tallest things there! But that station was a big deal because it was designed as a modal transfer hub. Big parking lots, many bus bays, and even a plan for a future "Etobicoke RT"

Building a new station at McCowan/Sheppard would serve a similar purpose to the original purpose of Kipling. Yes, it's suburban, but it reaches that much closer to where a lot of people live. It means that people can come down McCowan from Finch/Steeles, etc., or across Sheppard, and not have to slog it westwards for another 30++ minutes just to get on a subway.

As for Sheppard itself..... if you want to play the Google Maps game, at the very least, use a map from the future?
1601213266671.png


All of those black pins are future buildings. Most of them are 20+ floors, with some at 40+. The purple-ish pins represent 200+ floors of residential construction happening right now. Sheppard East is one of the thickest new development areas outside of the core.

Heck.... one of those dots... just one, is this entire project.
1601213725010.png

.... and that's in addition to the ~25 10+ storey apartment buildings & condos already within a 15 minute walk of the corner of Sheppard & Kennedy.

All of these projects will™ be done by 2030, at which point it's going to be abundantly clear that the Sheppard East extension needs to move forward. And it will also be abundantly clear that OL needs to extend north from Eglinton to Sheppard.
 

warrens

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Promising to cancel the Ontario Line to bring in the Relief Line is not going to get you any extra votes and it may even cost you votes. Let's move on. The Relief Line is dead.

Helps to remember that Relief Line South, in and of itself, wasn't going to solve a lot of problems beyond fractionally reducing transfer congestion at Bloor/Yonge. Nobody would've ever proposed building subway stations at Carlaw/Queen or King/Sumach on their own merits, and the number of people who would actually change their vote because someone's promising to revive those stations back can't be more than a handful....

As for whether Relief Line is "dead", I don't agree with that. Yes, the "Ontario Line" moniker and the politicians who proposed it are distasteful to many transit advocates, but away from the politics, on the ground level it's mostly the same people working on it. A bunch of folks literally changed jobs from the TTC to Metrolinx and carried on with what they were doing before, just with some different parameters, and with better ideas winning out.
 

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