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Don't let's forget that the current extensions were planned pre-Covid, presuming Riverside South and Findlay's Creek were developing to house government commuters. I remember reading somewhere or other that the ridership estimates for the airport branch were about one-tenth those of the suburban branch. And passenger traffic is still way down at the airport compared with 2019, so the proportions may not have changed much. ARG1's take on things seems pretty accurate to me.
 
As someone who lives in the area of the Trillium Line, I don't have a lot of confidence with the plan being implemented with Phase 2. The three southern stations are remotely located to current development with Limebank having the best hope of development in the medium term. They should have extended the train towards Vimy Bridge which has a lot of development nearby and a large underutilized park n ride, but they barely got Limebank built.

The current Line 2 replacement bus service is absolutely awful. Totally unreliable with buses often being removed to other routes such as R1 with the Confed Line so often partially out of service.

Although it is technically possible to run the airport trains to Bayview, this would be an unwise choice since only half length Lint trains can go to the airport. Demand will never require Flirt trains to go to the airport and I doubt the design can accommodate them without a huge additional expenditure. The airport itself should have recovered most travel demand by now but the airport spur (Line 4) will operate at a huge loss. Train frequency will be better than UPX. There is no value in dropping frequency from 12 minutes to 24 minutes just to have direct airport trains to Bayview. By the same token, we will see how efficient the transfers between Line 2 and 4 will be at South Keys. I suspect 1 or 2 minute transfers is a stretch.

I don't expect that demand on the Southeast Transitway will change much with the re-opening of Line 2. Service north of Greenboro does not change with Phase 2, so there is no benefit to switch to the train that doesn't go downtown anyways. Bus frequency on the Transitway is better so most riders not destined to Carleton University and a few other locations west of downtown, will continue to use the Southeast Transitway. We also have to remember that 12 minute trains do not integrate well with buses that don't operate at the same frequency. In off-peak hours, most suburban buses run at a 30 minute frequency. I have been stuck a few times because of the transfers do not work reliably.

A lot of the engineering problems (single track Ellwood diamond replacement for example) are the result of budget limitations and the fact that without full double tracking, little benefit will be achieved as far as frequency. I am very disappointed that the Walkley overpass was rehabilitated instead of replaced to allow double tracking at Walkley station. This was the one thing that could have allowed better frequency without full double tracking. It would have allowed 10 minute frequency and much more predictable bus transfers. Ottawa cheaped out on the project and only considered capacity rather providing reliable service. I complained about this at public meetings but they claimed that the 'experts' knew better.

With Line 2 and 4 scheduled to open this fall, I am also disappointed that absolutely no information has been provided on bus integration and the expected revised bus network. I know there is a shortage of bus drivers in Ottawa which may dictate what is possible.

The plans for changes at South Keys will take decades. Greenboro station will not be eliminated. Greenboro offers better access to stores for Carleton students than South Keys. I will not be pleased if they eliminate the Greenboro park n ride which I use from time to time, especially to reach Lansdowne Park. If it closes, then transit becomes unusable for evening special events.

I am not holding my breath on this being much of a game changer. Travel from the airport will be worse than it was with the bus. For those living inside the Greenbelt, there will be little or no benefit other than the opening of a couple of new stations. I am not even 100% confident that 12 minute frequency will be maintained. Hopefully, but double length trains going onto a passing siding will not necessarily be fast.
 
I was walking down the Trillium Pathway yesterday, and perchance encountered some testing being done between Corso Italia and Bayview. Videos and Images below

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The last video was too long to be posted to imgur, so here's a link to the file: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/926907484659126372/1123779140668112896/20230628_202130.mp4
 
Can't find it now but there was a nice video today on LinkedIn by one of the SNC people involved. Great drone footage of the test running. Apparently they have commenced dynamic testing of the trains.
 
Crazy to think that this is Ottawa and North America! If it wasn't for the maple leaf on the O-Train livery you'd think this is somewhere in Europe.
We need to see more of this.

Should have been on Orangeville to GO Brampton, and the Richmond Hill Line for all day service, and the Vancouver Island train. Etc etc.
 
We need to see more of this.

Should have been on Orangeville to GO Brampton, and the Richmond Hill Line for all day service, and the Vancouver Island train. Etc etc.
Absolutely! This would be a good way to penetrate areas without going full on mainline heavy railway infrastructure and operations.
 
As an Ottawa resident, this whole situation is very disappointing. Frankly, it is a disaster for Ottawa transit, and has greatly affected public confidence in the transit system. It seems to me that there is a serious incompatibility between the trains and the track design. This closure is going to be measured in days, at least. We need a permanent solution. My city councillor expressed great concern when the deal was signed for Phase 2 before Phase 1 opened. I am so nervous that the design issues for Phase 1 are being replicated for Phase 2. Track has already been laid on sections of Phase 2.
 
^^^ How exasperating.

@mjl08 I think both of your examples, this and Crosstown speak not to the failings of LRT per se; but to the failings of P3s.

Too many players, too little coordination and accountability, equally too little core competence on the part of gov't because they've contracted the competence out.

I remain, steadfast in my opinion that between the above issues and the extraordinary financing costs, that P3s should be entirely killed off as an idea.

*****

On the narrow subject of the Ottawa LRT debacle, I think the province should introduce a bill dissolving the Rideau Transit Group, and compelling its principles to be on the hook for redesign and reconstruction of any problem issues on the system, and for completely new rollingstock.

That action would effectively kill P3s as no one would ever bid on one again, to which I say, good!
 
^^^ How exasperating.

@mjl08 I think both of your examples, this and Crosstown speak not to the failings of LRT per se; but to the failings of P3s.

Too many players, too little coordination and accountability, equally too little core competence on the part of gov't because they've contracted the competence out.

I remain, steadfast in my opinion that between the above issues and the extraordinary financing costs, that P3s should be entirely killed off as an idea.

*****

On the narrow subject of the Ottawa LRT debacle, I think the province should introduce a bill dissolving the Rideau Transit Group, and compelling its principles to be on the hook for redesign and reconstruction of any problem issues on the system, and for completely new rollingstock.

That action would effectively kill P3s as no one would ever bid on one again, to which I say, good!
You have 2 different issues going on here at this time. P3 and Alstom are the 2 issues with a possible of a 3rd.

First of all, who specifically the design of the track system???
Was the track system built to those specifications???
Since Ottawa order the cars, it become an Ottawa issues.
Was Alstom asked about those specifications if they saw any issues with the non standard car for NA??
Did Alstom build something that had no proven record in Europe and assume it would work in NA with no issues??
Did Alstom build the cars as per the track specifications???

This sounding more and more an Alstom design problem and quality control issue.

Since these cars designs are been used on the Finch Line 6 where 17 cars are now on site with limited testing, will similar issue arise once service starts in 2024??

Will these issues be resolved by Q4 this year as when the first of 44 cars for Mississauga are to start showing up with testing starting in Q1 of 2024 until all are here?? Service looks like it will start in Q2 2025 at this time, not the end of 2024.

If the bearings and shafts have to be redesign, tested and manufactured, how long to you see that taking place??
How Long well the LRT been shut down to reinstall all the new shafts and doing testing of them on the system before the system can resumes service??
 
This demonstrates the sort of wild talk going around Ottawa, everywhere from cafes to sidewalks to city hall. The dreaded sharp curves - 120 metre radius! - are to blame. Never mind that low-floor vehicles in Europe merrily zip around 25-metre curves all the time, and Toronto streetcars have been making right turns and loops of about 14 metres for a decade. Wait a minute, hasn't the Toronto Subway been turning from King to Union for about 75 years? But I digress.

People are seriously talking about rebuilding an entire kilometer of the system or tossing hundreds of millions of dollars of vehicles in the blue bin. Clearly something is wrong with either the bogies or the rails or both. These are things that can be fixed. Why the problem is taking so long to solve is a huge frustration, but Ottawa just doesn't do these things very well. Sticking with low floors on this line when they clearly served no purpose (and continuing to insist they did) is one symptom of the problem, and the badly botched service increase of 2014, which Leacock could have scripted, is another. And no one in officialdom is allowed to publicly question shutting down the system for days or weeks upon discovery of one leaky bearing on one axle of one bogie of one vehicle, or whether, now that several cars have been checked and cleared, partial service should be resumed. No service, no answers, and no discussion.
 

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