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UrbanWarrior

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I agree to an extent, but the US has already announced they’re going to be doubling production of a number of weapons to keep their stockpiles in good order, and there are a few middle powers like Germany, Spain, Italy, and Japan who haven’t sent much yet. If push comes to shove, then I think those countries will step up to the plate. Colombia is also in the mix there, and they have designs on eventually joining NATO. The US isn’t going anywhere as far as their weapons support goes. They’re united across both parties on the issue of assisting Ukraine to the end, however it ends. It also helps that the Ukrainians just captured $1 billion worth of weapons materiel during the Kharkiv offensive.

Russia is showing their panic now, making undeniable attempts at targeting civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Kriyvy Rih the last couple of days. As the president said, “the Russians have now shown us the best of themselves - their backs.”

If the reports out of Kherson west of the Dnieper and in Melitopol are true (a fairly big “if”), then the invasion truly is collapsing. The fact that the Russians are now not honouring the DPR and LPR passports (which they issued) anymore shows they don’t see their own puppet states as equals, and it could turn the civilian populations of those “states” against them. There are a lot of moving pieces and most seem to be going against Russian victory.
 
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darwink

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One thing to keep in mind is that NATO won't be supplying Ukraine like this for too much longer, we can't deplete our own stockpiles to the point where we could be vulnerable.
The question is if someone is depleting russia for us, and it turns out russian doctrine is shit, not like russia will be a threat for years, and even china will spend at least 5 retraining.

Why would we stop?
 

Mountain Man

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I just know countries like France and the UK were making noise about depleted stockpiles.

Why would China need 5 years to retrain? They are the country that makes me most nervous, though I'm sure a lot of their show of force lately is just sabre rattling...
 

UrbanWarrior

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He might mean China will need to re-train their soldiers to adapt to the new battle tactics employed by Ukraine. That’s my guess 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

JonnyCanuck

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Apparently Germany has some decommissioned Leopard tanks that they do not want to give to Ukraine. I have not heard the reason.
 

darwink

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Apparently Germany has some decommissioned Leopard tanks that they do not want to give to Ukraine. I have not heard the reason.
It is not obvious that they would be extra useful at this point. Western artillery is. But tanks, the quality difference isn't so huge.
 

Mountain Man

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If they are Leopard 1 tanks, then they won't be much better than a more modern Russian tank, if they are Leopard 2 then even the older versions should be much more sophisticated than the cheap Russian crap. But as you said, Tanks aren't super relevant in modern conflict.
 

adamyyc

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My guess is that Germany’s refusal to provide the tanks (despite its previous commitment to do so) is a result of energy threats from Russia (i.e., winter is coming).
 

Mountain Man

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Germany just assumed control over a couple Russian owned oil refineries, I doubt sending tanks to Ukraine would be a bigger move against Russia than that was.
 

adamyyc

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Germany just assumed control over a couple Russian owned oil refineries, I doubt sending tanks to Ukraine would be a bigger move against Russia than that was.
Doesn’t do much good if product is shut-in in Russia though.

But true. I’m not sure what the hold up has been given Germany has provided other weapons, such as howitzers.
 

darwink

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Doesn’t do much good if product is shut-in in Russia though.

But true. I’m not sure what the hold up has been given Germany has provided other weapons, such as howitzers.
Tanks have way more wear and tear. The west already has a big problem with having 5, 6, 7 types of self propelled artillery complicating maintenance logistics. At least NATO munitions are standardized for supply.
 

JonnyCanuck

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From a guy who has no credibility yet 75 million Americans still voted for him, Trump addressed a crowd at a rally in Ohio on the weekend. He stated that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine had he still been president.
Of course, that was not his first reaction to the news back in February...
I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, 'This is genius.' Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine, of Ukraine, Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that's wonderful,"
The ex-President added: "So Putin is now saying, 'It's independent,' a large section of Ukraine. I said, 'How smart is that?' And he's going to go in and be a peacekeeper. That's the strongest peace force," Trump said. "We could use that on our southern border. That's the strongest peace force I've ever seen. ... Here's a guy who's very savvy. ... I know him very well. Very, very well."

To this day, Trump has yet to level any criticism at Putin or comment on the widely reported atrocities that have been committed on Ukrainian civilians. It will be interesting to see if he does announce he is running for president in 2024 whether he starts criticizing Biden for the amount of money and weaponry that the U.S has sent to Ukraine. His base would turn their backs on that country in a minute.
 
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Mountain Man

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Putin flatters Trump, so Trump thinks he's brilliant. Of course, it's just Putin manipulating Trump for his own benefit, but Trump buys right into it. Thank Christ Trump isn't in power, or he possibly would have sent troops into Ukraine to back Putin!
 

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