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Zoom

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2020-2021 saw a natural increase of 7,624, the lowest level in 20 years, even as the population has increased considerably since then. So per capita it's the lowest it's been for more than 2 decades. That may be a pandemic blip, but our natural increase has been steadily declining since the 2015-2016 peak of 12,314.

Interactive dashboard, StatsCan population estimates, Calgary CMA
It's no surprise last year was the lowest in the past 20 years, and not much of a surprise, that it's been in decline since 2015-2016. Remember the downtown started in 2015, and many of the children born that year were planned for and conceived before the downturn started. It'll bounce back if the economy picks up, and that feels like it's happening. slowly, but still happening.

The story here is that even with a prolonged economic slump, a sharp decrease in international immigration and the lowest natural increase in the past 20 years, Calgary still outdid its contemporaries. Not that everything's perfect, but I agree with Cowtown, there's something good things happening here.
 

ByeByeBaby

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2020-2021 saw a natural increase of 7,624, the lowest level in 20 years, even as the population has increased considerably since then. So per capita it's the lowest it's been for more than 2 decades. That may be a pandemic blip, but our natural increase has been steadily declining since the 2015-2016 peak of 12,314.

Interactive dashboard, StatsCan population estimates, Calgary CMA

It's at least part a pandemic blip for sure; not only a 3-5% drop in fertility rates in 2020 beyond the trends (and I would guess more in 2021 -- 2020 babies were pre-pandemic conceptions) which is around 1000 fewer births, but also all of the extra deaths. Provincial excess mortality was 2200 in 2020 (and 2600 in the first 9 months of 2021).

That said, here's the trend of childbearing aged women in Calgary; it's a bit odd to think about because all of the 20-24 year olds in 2005 are 25-29 year olds in 2010 and so on (although they can move away, and others can move here):
1642483662781.png


Most women are 25-34 when they have children (red and purple lines); the 20-24 population has been really stable for over a decade, so it's net migration that's led to the increase in late 20s/early 30s women; with that dropping off in the past few years, that's been visible in the 25-29 population, and soon it will be in the 30-34 population. Even if they were having babies at the same rate as usual (and with economic stress, they may not), the gross number of women to bear children is dropping.

Meanwhile, this is the other trend that will contribute to our drop in natural fertility:
1642483775558.png


The baby boomers are approaching the end of the road, and that's going to loom large over the next 20-30 years. 2021 will have a bigger pandemic drop with lower fertility and higher excess deaths. But barring a big turnaround in the economy, we could be close to 0 natural increase in a few years.
 

MichaelS

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I am not sure, but guessing that it is the fact Rocky View County is included, but Foothills County is not. So, as a result, the entire jurisdictional boundary of RVC is included (which reaches all the way to Beiseker), but none of the Foothills County is (which would include places like Okotoks, Black Diamond, etc...).
 

Surrealplaces

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Crazy that Beiseker is included in the CMA but Okotoks, Black Diamond, High River, etc. aren't. Is there a reason all the areas North and West are included but not South?
I am not sure, but guessing that it is the fact Rocky View County is included, but Foothills County is not. So, as a result, the entire jurisdictional boundary of RVC is included (which reaches all the way to Beiseker), but none of the Foothills County is (which would include places like Okotoks, Black Diamond, etc...).
Yep, that's exactly why Beiseker is included. Airdrie and Cochrane have dragged them in with us.

Foothills is kind of an exception to the rule in that there is a fair bit of cross employment between High River and Okotoks. The last time I took a good look into the stats, there was a significant number of people living in one of the two cities and working in one of the two cities. I would be willing to bet a large number of people at the Cargill plant live in Okotoks or High River, probably enough of those people to throw the commute numbers off.
 

Surrealplaces

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So our numbers still don't include Okotoks and Foothills correct? We must be about 1.7M with them included.
Close. The last time I looked at Foothills, there were around 73K people. That was from the 2016 census, so today I'm guessing they are around 77-78K. The true metro number for Calgary would be around 1.64M today. Maybe higher.
 

Joborule

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Yep, that's exactly why Beiseker is included. Airdrie and Cochrane have dragged them in with us.

Foothills is kind of an exception to the rule in that there is a fair bit of cross employment between High River and Okotoks. The last time I took a good look into the stats, there was a significant number of people living in one of the two cities and working in one of the two cities. I would be willing to bet a large number of people at the Cargill plant live in Okotoks or High River, probably enough of those people to throw the commute numbers off.
So is it the case that not much people within foothills work in Calgary, thus it's not included? If so, seems odd still to group in all of Rocky View, where a fair amount there doesn't work in Calgary themselves I assume.
 

BKha

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I think we may just reverse back up. A lot of people I talk to in BC want to move out and buy property in Calgary. On top of that, jobs are coming back. For new English-speaking immigrants, Vancouver and Toronto are way too expensive, so the next best choice they have left is Calgary. Ottawa and Edmonton still lack that "city-living" feel. Their downtowns aren't very developed and the airports aren't at a global level.
I've been experiencing the same thing. I know so many people in Toronto or Vancouver that are looking for a move, especially Toronto. If Calgary's economy gets on a consistent roll or hits a mild boom, we'll see a lot of intercity migration here. The onl;y thing stopping tens of thousand of people moving here is the sift job market.
 

Stephen Ave

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So is it the case that not much people within foothills work in Calgary, thus it's not included? If so, seems odd still to group in all of Rocky View, where a fair amount there doesn't work in Calgary themselves I assume.
I don't know the formula for the commute numbers, but that's what it comes down to.
 

Surrealplaces

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So is it the case that not much people within foothills work in Calgary, thus it's not included? If so, seems odd still to group in all of Rocky View, where a fair amount there doesn't work in Calgary themselves I assume.
Alot of people work in Calgary, just not quite enough. Somewhere on the Statscan community profile page for 2016 there are stats showing the amount of people in Okotoks and High River who work within Foothills MD, and it's a lower percentage than the amount of people in Airdrie, Cochrane and Chestermemre who work on Calgary. I'll see if I can dig up the numbers.
 

Surrealplaces

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Found the stats from 2016. This is Airdrie (left) compared to Okotoks (right) They are closer than I remember from the previous census results, Airdrie still has a higher commute amount 63% vs 60% going to another CSD within the same CD, assumable that could be Calgary, but the difference isn't very much.

1643430198112.png




Interesting when comparing Rocky View (left) to Foothills (right) - not including Airdrie, HighRiver, Cochrane, Okotoks, etc.. The commuting rate from their municipality into another CSD (assuming Calgary) is about the same. Maybe Foothills is closer to being added than we think.?

1643430973124.png
 

Surrealplaces

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Here's High River (left) vs Cochrane. High River has a fairly high amount of people who work within the CSD, but one wouldn't expect they have enough population to sway the percentage. The way to do this would be to go through all of the communities for each municipality and the municipalities themselves add them all up and compare. I don't know if the difference would be that large, but it must be just enough to keep it from being part of Calgary's CMA.

1643431241353.png
 

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