^We will see what happens next week at the BoC announcement. Will 2 cuts be enough?
 
Cutienelly said:
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The "Harm Reduction Program" Community Health Centre next door only has outdoor security during operating hours. Motley crew is a kind "term" to now describe the clientele who now camp out in the immediate area waiting for the centre to open.
 
Red Mars said:
The "Harm Reduction Program" Community Health Centre next door only has outdoor security during operating hours. Motley crew is a kind "term" to now describe the clientele who now camp out in the immediate area waiting for the centre to open.
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When I walked by the centre two days ago the gathering outside could only be described as absurd, filthy and a serious problem. I am not saying that these people shouldn’t be helped but the current arrangement isn’t working and seems to make the situation worse!
 
Cutienelly said:
Does anyone know what is going on with this project?? I live close to this and am beyond tired of seeing this site be a complete disaster. This is the ONLY time that I welcome construction to happen.
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Per Urbanation:
  • New condominium sales totalling 1,688 units in Q2 fell 66% annually, resulting in the slowest first half for sales (3,159 units) in 27 years.
  • The 3,625 units that launched for pre-sales in Q2 achieved only 17% absorption, a more than 20-year low and less than half the 10-year average of 55%.
  • Total unsold inventory grew to a record high 25,893 units, equal to 34 months of supply – three times higher than a balanced level.
  • Average unsold new condo prices continued to adjust slowly, decreasing 3% annually to an average of $1,361 psf.
  • Only 727 condominium units started construction in Q2-2024, a more than 20-year low that brought the latest four-quarter total down to 9,182 units — a 67% plunge from the 28,026 units that started during the annual period ending a year ago in Q2-2023.
  • The latest four-quarter total for completions remained near a record high at 28,163 units in Q2-2024.
  • Completions are expected to trend down for the remainder of the year. Completions scheduled for the second half of 2024 are expected to total 10,205 units — a 38% decline from the first half total of 16,455 units.
  • The combination of high completions and low starts caused the inventory of total condos under construction in the GTHA to fall to a more than three-year low of 87,508 units, a decline of nearly 19,000 units over the past year.
  • Condo resale transactions fell 22% year-over-year to their lowest Q2 level in 10 years outside of the pandemic period in Q2-2020, while resale condo listings grew 27% annually to their highest level on record.
  • The quarterly ratio of sales-to-listings fell to a buyer’s market level of 37%, representing only the eighth quarter out of the past 20 years (i.e. 80 quarters) that the ratio was below 40%.
  • Active condo resale listings at quarter-end grew 97% from a year ago to a record-high 7,773 units, equal to 5.5 months of supply — more than double the 10-year average of 2.4 months.
  • Average resale prices reacted with a mild 2.8% year-over-year decline to $863 psf, with a total decrease of 12.0% from the market peak in Q1-2022 ($981 psf).
As @ProjectEnd said, nothing is launching for a while.
 
The shitty thing is if you're not going purpose built rental, you need investors for housing starts. But that led to and was perpetuated by terrible, tiny, stupid layouts, designed purely for that purpose. When someone's financial growth is put ahead of the lived experience of those who inhabit that investment, you're going the wrong way. And we've gone so far down the wrong path, I'm very happy this reckoning is upon us.
 
  • The latest four-quarter total for completions remained near a record high at 28,163 units in Q2-2024.
  • Completions are expected to trend down for the remainder of the year. Completions scheduled for the second half of 2024 are expected to total 10,205 units — a 38% decline from the first half total of 16,455 units.
This is what interests me! Do we know where they were located? I will do some digging but this would be close to a NA record if not a Western world one.
 
ProjectEnd said:
The shitty thing is if you're not going purpose built rental, you need investors for housing starts. But that led to and was perpetuated by terrible, tiny, stupid layouts, designed purely for that purpose. When someone's financial growth is put ahead of the lived experience of those who inhabit that investment, you're going the wrong way. And we've gone so far down the wrong path, I'm very happy this reckoning is upon us.
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Agreed.

Any thoughts (that you can share) on which proposals may take a swing at going rental?

We know that's being looked at for 'The Riv' and for the Sunnybrook Plaza site. I'd be curious to know even just by volume how many proposals are in re-penciling to see if they can work as rental.
 
Conservatively, I would say 50%+ of current not-yet-launched buildings will be exploring that option. It's a lot, but the equity requirements are far tougher so not all of those will go through. Also, getting to stabilization will be tough when so much product is potentially coming on the market. But again, no condo market at all means people have to find options.
 
ProjectEnd said:
Conservatively, I would say 50%+ of current not-yet-launched buildings will be exploring that option. It's a lot, but the equity requirements are far tougher so not all of those will go through. Also, getting to stabilization will be tough when so much product is potentially coming on the market. But again, no condo market at all means people have to find options.
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Thanks.

Interesting, I wondered if it was that high, because so many of the existing proponents have no experience w/rental. How many would or should have a JV partner who knows rental vs tackling it for the first time on their own.

Fascinating to see this unfold.
 
You take a pension fund like Quebecor which has been a major player buying up newly built rental buildings all over Canada leaving the developer a minority stake and management rights. If they stop buying based on stagnating values than that will affect developers raising capital to build rental towers. Rental is a terrible investment based on income. The attraction since it started has been booming real estate values. The Canadian Pension Plan is another that has turned a deficit into a surplus investing in rising real estate values of the last decade
 
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ProjectEnd said:
Conservatively, I would say 50%+ of current not-yet-launched buildings will be exploring that option. It's a lot, but the equity requirements are far tougher so not all of those will go through. Also, getting to stabilization will be tough when so much product is potentially coming on the market. But again, no condo market at all means people have to find options.
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The other consideration here is the HST forgiveness, which is more or less essential in today's market to make rental work. A lot of folks are rushing entitlements forward right now for projects that could conceivably be rental given uncertainty about what Prime Minister Poilievre might choose to do vis-a-vis keeping or scrapping that policy.
 
maestro said:
You take a pension fund like Quebecor which has been a major player buying up newly built rental buildings all over Canada leaving the developer a minority stake and management rights. If they stop buying based on stagnating values than that will affect developers raising capital to build rental towers. Rental is a terrible investment based on income. The attraction since it started has been booming real estate values. The Canadian Pension Plan is another that has turned a deficit into a surplus investing in rising real estate values of the last decade
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The first year is the worst year in rental. Deep pockets and long-term vision is required for the rental game. Most new developers are extremely lacking on both those items.
 
Reside, as it was.........is dead........

New submission at 33s, still Kirkor

@Paclo

www.toronto.ca

Application Details

www.toronto.ca www.toronto.ca

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Site Plan:

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Ground Floor Plan:

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