C-mac

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Like I said, the cost to finance a project that takes this many years to complete are exceptionally high. Almost always to the degree that the project is a failure. The return on investment you have to offer a lender on a project with a payback period of 6,7 or 8 years (at this rate of construction) has to be so high the project would never return a profit to the developer (and this ain't no hugely capitalized developer to boot). Hence, I'm highly suspicious of this project. Often when things don't appear to add up, that's because they don't. Personally I've never seen a project that returns a satisfactory rate of return when payback periods excced 3.5 years, but real estate is a little lower risk than I deal with so lets push real estate to 4.5-5 years. After that you've got an 'ugly baby' no matter how you spin it. Hope that better explains why I think something crocked is going on here.

PS. I'd also appreciate it if you kept the disparaging comments to yourself. There is no need to personalize with comments like 'lots of words'.


Thing I don't understand then, and maybe you can explain it....

There are projects that take this long to build. Gehry condos will be anther one, and there have been others in the past. So why would any developer take on a project knowing it's going to take that long to build?
 

Bjays92

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They seem to be working pretty fast on this floor.
They are indeed moving much faster than they were relative to previous floors. The last slab pour was back on Nov 22 though which means it's already been 3 weeks and I'd imagine we still have a good bit to go before they're ready to pour the next floor.

So yes much faster than previously but certainly not breakneck speed by any means.
 

BloorMan

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Right that Roger store makes me wonder, even if the owner was asking for $10 million, it would make sense because it would make the site way less space constrained.
The workers didn't hesitate to use the roof of the Rogers store to complete some of the work though :)
 

vinny_the_hack

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They are indeed moving much faster than they were relative to previous floors. The last slab pour was back on Nov 22 though which means it's already been 3 weeks and I'd imagine we still have a good bit to go before they're ready to pour the next floor.

So yes much faster than previously but certainly not breakneck speed by any means.
The repetitive floors won't speed up until they're...repeated.
 

BloorMan

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Lots of workers on site today. Here are a couple of photos from this morning.
20211213_094048.jpg
20211213_094057.jpg
 

Jon77

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I am currently taking a Structural Design class along with a Structural Analysis class and this building provides a great real world example of how beautiful engineering is. I can see some of the things I am learning being implemented on the structure and it is really cool to see. I have to follow design codes for simple 10 floor steel office buildings, I can't imagine doing it for this monster. Gives me more motivation just by looking at this thread. (as I sit here procrastinating studying for said classes lol)
 

UtakataNoAnnex

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They are indeed moving much faster than they were relative to previous floors. The last slab pour was back on Nov 22 though which means it's already been 3 weeks and I'd imagine we still have a good bit to go before they're ready to pour the next floor.

So yes much faster than previously but certainly not breakneck speed by any means.
The repetitive floors won't speed up until they're...repeated.
I think the key phrase here is "getting into a routine". That is, when the floors design becomes repeatable while getting down the method of building those floors to an art form, this thing will likely start to grow notably. Thusly, patience young Padawans...
 

AdamS

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Like I said, the cost to finance a project that takes this many years to complete are exceptionally high. Almost always to the degree that the project is a failure. The return on investment you have to offer a lender on a project with a payback period of 6,7 or 8 years (at this rate of construction) has to be so high the project would never return a profit to the developer (and this ain't no hugely capitalized developer to boot). Hence, I'm highly suspicious of this project. Often when things don't appear to add up, that's because they don't. Personally I've never seen a project that returns a satisfactory rate of return when payback periods excced 3.5 years, but real estate is a little lower risk than I deal with so lets push real estate to 4.5-5 years. After that you've got an 'ugly baby' no matter how you spin it. Hope that better explains why I think something crocked is going on here.

PS. I'd also appreciate it if you kept the disparaging comments to yourself. There is no need to personalize with comments like 'lots of words'.
No doubt this is taking longer than typical but to assume something dodgy or shady is going on is just speculation.

The fact remains that any unsold units are also rising in value tremendously. If we are making random assumptions, then lets say the developer held onto at least 10-15% of the units as that is common in condo development. So in a way he also benefits from a delayed process/rising values.
As real estate values rise you can always refinance loans or convert some debt to equity which he has already done via Firm Capital.
 

interchange42

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I think the key phrase here is "getting into a routine". That is, when the floors design becomes repeatable while getting down the method of building those floors to an art form, this thing will likely start to grow notably. Thusly, patience young Padawans...
The other key will be being able to reuse forms, floor after floor, so they will no longer have to build special forms for each floor, as has been the case so far.

42
 

Lovestallthings

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The other key will be being able to reuse forms, floor after floor, so they will no longer have to build special forms for each floor, as has been the case so far.

42
Exactly the past couple of floors have been different heights etc. Once they get to the floors that are the same height it will fly up
 

rbt

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Like I said, the cost to finance a project that takes this many years to complete are exceptionally high. Almost always to the degree that the project is a failure. The return on investment you have to offer a lender on a project with a payback period of 6,7 or 8 years (at this rate of construction) has to be so high the project would never return a profit to the developer (and this ain't no hugely capitalized developer to boot). Hence, I'm highly suspicious of this project. Often when things don't appear to add up, that's because they don't. Personally I've never seen a project that returns a satisfactory rate of return when payback periods excced 3.5 years, but real estate is a little lower risk than I deal with so lets push real estate to 4.5-5 years. After that you've got an 'ugly baby' no matter how you spin it. Hope that better explains why I think something crocked is going on here.

PS. I'd also appreciate it if you kept the disparaging comments to yourself. There is no need to personalize with comments like 'lots of words'.

The retail component, which is ~1/3rd of the value of the entire project, will be open and paying rent within a year.

That will take a big bite out of any financing issues. Monthly revenue collected (or out-right sale of the retail space) will more than offset interest on loans.
 

SkylineHorizon

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The retail component, which is ~1/3rd of the value of the entire project, will be open and paying rent within a year.

That will take a big bite out of any financing issues. Monthly revenue collected (or out-right sale of the retail space) will more than offset interest on loans.
Just how much is Apple, err... I mean some future random unknown tenant... paying for that space!?
 

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