Geoff Olynyk

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Actually seeing trades with tools down will be the ultimate proof that something’s gone wrong, but will happen well after (days to weeks to months, maybe) the boardroom battles that ultimately determine the fate of the project. Like a critical financing falling through (the death blow) could be followed a week later by the developer realizing they aren’t going to line up backup financing, followed by weeks of stalling…

Anyway I think @Ottawan put it well — if anyone has actual real behind-the-scenes information about the state of critical financing and negotiations, they likely aren’t posting publically here.
 

C-mac

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The disparaging of members here across the board is both silly and impolite.

****

In respect of this project, I won't waste everyone's time to any great degree as I have nothing to do with this project in any way shape or form and no insider's insight to offer.

I will say, replacing 100M of debt and equity, even on a billion dollar project is not necessarily an easy matter.

It depends on a host of things, including the promised return on investment; whether that is understood to be credible by the investor community (irrespective of whether that understanding is fair or accurate)
the risk profile, associated with schedule, sale closings, future construction costs, penalty clauses to previous investors that may or may not exist or come into force; along with any risk of the other partners/underwriters getting cold feet.

I can't speak to all of the above in any detail at this point (Court may see some of the underlying agreements and their terms come to light)

I have insufficient information at this point to draw any conclusions on the medium term future of this project; but barring an injunction that freezes cashflow or halts construction, things will likely proceed in the near term.


My point exactly. I didn't say it with as much intellect, but exactly my point.
 

mburrrrr

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It sure looks like this building was designed for only one purpose on the ground floor. I assume that potential tenant probably has some extra cash in the bank to get it done. How bad and how soon do they want that location? Maybe a good investment at a discount? Back to my arm chair watching football.
 

C-mac

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My issue with all the discussion here is that there are two very vocal camps when it comes to this building. One is, it's doomed, it'll never get built, it's a disaster, construction is stopping any day now. The other is, nothing to see here, move along, this is all a big nothingburger.

Neither of these stances are correct. The reality is there are major problems going on in the background here, and they've been going on for a while. The fact that they've been going on for a while, and construction has continued on this site is proof that it will almost certainly not suddenly stop tomorrow. However, that does not mean this thing is in the clear, and will get built as is, by the current owners on the current timeframe. I'm not saying that can't happen either, the reality is we simply don't know.

There are issues here that are not normal, they are not a deathblow for this project, and they likely won't have an immediate impact. But to dismiss them outright is also completely wrong, because there is genuine financial turmoil here that could undoubtedly significantly impact the project.


Okay, that's the fine, but don't come on here and say "the project will basically stop in two weeks". Let the background problems be in the background, unless you have actual knowledge there will e a court order to stop this thing. If nobody knows....nobody knows....but this issue comes up every time there is some legal blurb in the media, and it's deja vu all over again. This is getting old.
 

Bjays92

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Okay, that's the fine, but don't come on here and say "the project will basically stop in two weeks". Let the background problems be in the background, unless you have actual knowledge there will e a court order to stop this thing. If nobody knows....nobody knows....but this issue comes up every time there is some legal blurb in the media, and it's deja vu all over again. This is getting old.
When have I ever said this. In fact I'm literally saying the people who are saying this are wrong, did you even read what I said?

You're right, this is getting very old, especially the blatant dismissal of every legal problem this project is facing, but I was trying to come in and be a reasonable voice and point out that there are no indications of any short term impacts but also highlight these issues do pose a risk to this project.

Apparently having a reasoned approach to the issue makes me a doomsayer.

Why don't you actually read what I say next time for what it actually is, a criticism of the blind and biased arguments both sides are making and not baselessly blame me of saying things I did not say.
 

UtakataNoAnnex

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I wasn't specifically calling you out, nor did I realise that you even directly used nothingburger in one of your comments. So apologies if it felt as though I was directly going at you, because that simply wasn't the case or intention. I was just using words I felt summarized the general sentiments on the forum.
Fair enough! And thank you for the clarification then. /bows
 

dodgeram

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It sure looks like this building was designed for only one purpose on the ground floor. I assume that potential tenant probably has some extra cash in the bank to get it done. How bad and how soon do they want that location? Maybe a good investment at a discount? Back to my arm chair watching football.
Let’s start a REIT and buy it from Sam. The Urban Toronto Investment Trust. Anyone have a billion dollars?
 

C-mac

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When have I ever said this. In fact I'm literally saying the people who are saying this are wrong, did you even read what I said?

You're right, this is getting very old, especially the blatant dismissal of every legal problem this project is facing, but I was trying to come in and be a reasonable voice and point out that there are no indications of any short term impacts but also highlight these issues do pose a risk to this project.

Apparently having a reasoned approach to the issue makes me a doomsayer.

Why don't you actually read what I say next time for what it actually is, a criticism of the blind and biased arguments both sides are making and not baselessly blame me of saying things I did not say.


I wasn't really referring to you per say, I was speaking in general about how this keeps coming up, and its same old same old. I don't even mind someone saying "there's new info about this in Globe and Mail", it's the crap that follows that sentence like "the project will be stopped in 3 weeks" when there's no proof of it and have no knowledge of the financials or where they are realistically in the legal proceedings.

The latest post about this was a perfect example. All the articled said was Coco is asking the courts to appoint an investigator to look into the affairs, and all of a sudden people are posting "I told you so" and " the project will stop here". Who even knows if the courts will appoint an investigator? If they do, when will that happen? If that happens, who's to say the investigator finds Coco accusations unfounded? There's so much more to this, mean while, the guys are still working in the pouring rain and the building is getting taller.
 
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interchange42

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No. I think the issue more is when discussions devolve into circular restatements of the same positions / ideas / perspectives with no actual additional contribution, the conversation is eventually cut off. Without being privy to specific insider knowledge of what is going on with the financing (and I do believe anyone who is would wisely not be commenting), there is only so much to say before all realistic possibilities have been speculated.
Yes, this, exactly! It's the constant restatement of the same thing by all parties that ends with the thread - which is mostly meant for planning, architecture, and construction - being taken off topic. We do have a Real Estate Forum thread for this project, linked at the top of every page, and those who wish to continue on with that can take that discussion there. We may be moving some of the posts in this thread to it soon.

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interchange42

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Okay, we're reopening the thread, and we will leave the content as is for the moment (a couple posts where members were taking potshots at other members have been deleted), but as mentioned (@Geoff Olynyk, you were wondering specifically) the Real Estate threads for building are meant for purchaser discussions and everything related, which includes financing. That talk should really go there.

In regards to the accusations of people being banned, @LoMein, members only get banned for crossing lines in the UT Code of Conduct, and that does not include merely disagreeing with others. Members get banned when they are abusive to other members. So sure, disagree, but don't act with contempt towards others, or it's bye-bye time.

Take the financing discussion to the Real Estate thread for this project, linked at the top of this and every The One Project Forum thread page, and please leave this thread for following what's happening here construction-wise in the meantime.

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Koops65

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Can't believe anyone would bother drawing something new at ssp... "behold the 94 storey smudge mark":

https://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?cityID=12
He (she?) draws mostly supertalls from around the world, most of them in China. It's a pretty good drawing, although I believe it's a little too thin to be realistic. Hopefully in a few years it'll become a real drawing instead of a smudge...
 

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