It takes 43 minutes to go from Conestoga to Fairway station [google maps]. There are 15 trains available. if we take 3 trains for spares (roughly 20% spare ratio), roughly speaking:
For 10 min peak frequency: we need 2*(43 m)/10m = 8.6 trains (rounded to 9 trains)
For 7.5 min peak frequency: we need 2*(43 m)/7.5m = 11.4 trains (rounded to 12 trains)
For 5 min peak frequency: we need 2*(43 m)/5m = 17.2 trains (rounded to 18 trains)
You could have 10 frequency with some double unit trains though thats probably not advisable. As we can see here, 7.5 min is the max frequency with 1 unit trains. This makes sense as 7.5 minute frequencies were the original planned launch frequency in 2019 though it never was in place due to the pandemic.
I believe GRT's main concern is with bus availability rather than operator resources - all of the existing buses are used for service with very few spares+ buses for expansion.
I don't think 'struggling' is a fair characterization.
The issue as noted below is reopening/amending a contract.
On a straight-line basis, the region can certainly find funds for more service.
This is also my understanding; however, I fail to see why a contract amendment has to jack costs out of sight. The region has carrot and stick to get cooperation.
They can choose to offer a contract extension on a no-bid basis, with lower future pricing that would otherwise be the case in exchange for a bit more now..........
They can also choose to offer a small increase for existing service in the contract in exchange for more service; and why would any sensible provider leave extra $ on the table?
I'm sure the contractor would love a vast increase, but I suspect they will take any material increase over what they are contractually tied to....
Alternatively to the carrot, the Region can choose to expressly deny any future contract extension due to lack of cooperation and can be a stickler at enforcing contract terms in a very annoying and costly way.
If the region wants better service, and it should, then it can find some additional money and a beneficial path for the contractor at a cost the region can afford.
Unless someone has firsthand knowledge of the Region contract, this is a guessing game.
It is very possible there are several options in the contract that will allow the Region to request lower headway at x dollars when the time comes to do it as well adding a second car to deal with ridership and headway for them as well. It may also call for additional cars to be purchased by the Region to deal with not only ridership and headway, but the extension of the line itself.
Phoenix was operating two and three car trains at the same time of day, all day long when we were there in 2019 on an10 minute headway schedule for weekday and 15 minutes on the weekend. Minneapolis ran three car trains on the Blue and Green Line every 10 minutes in 2019 compared to 10 minutes for the Blue line in 2018. The Green line saw 12 minutes in 2018 that was down from 15 minutes when it first opened as ridership had exceeded projected numbers within the first year and was still increasing. It was a hostile line from the very start that most did not want to see the line built or expect to see in ridership numbers being used. It has proven everyone wrong who was against the line to the point they love it now. Both systems run 30m cars like ION system but are only three section S70 cars.
From what I know of the Mississauga LRT contract, there are several options to deal with headway, adding more stations, lengthening the existing one for two cars compared to one car now as well as several types of service. There is no firm operating cost that the cities must pick up once service starts around 2026 now. ML drew up their LRT systems contracts like the Region, but with a lot of different requirements since they will be overseeing all their lines while the Region will be looking after one line at this time. Those extra requirements came at an additional cost, but there are a few now that will require rewriting of the contract or making contract amendment at an agreed price/cost now the two extensions are in the picture.
The difference between the ION system and the Hurontario Line is the size of the cars, ION cars are 30m and Hurontario will be 48m that are the same car as Ottawa cars.
Based on the numbers above, the 7.5-minute headway for peak time is pushing it for single cars. Using 10-minute headway will allow every other train to be 2 cars set and still be pushing it. It could be time for the Region to order more cars to allow two car sets for peak time and extraordinary events, let alone for the extension. It only takes an accident or two, let alone a problem with a car or two, to use up the 20% spare ratio that something on the system will have to change for the worse.