[Surrealplaces]

I decided to move the posts about the population talk over to a new thread and out of the arena thread.

 

[thommyjo]

I hear this often from Edmonton posters but I’ve never seen the evidence to support it.
I’m not saying it’s not true, but I would like to see the proof.

Here’s a bit of stuff specifically around shelter inequity. I’m trying to find some infrastructure stuff, but because of the arena deal, that’s all google wants to show me when searching haha. I remember a good post last year outlining a few hundred million in disparity between the cities.

At a basic level, the payment to demolish the saddledome but no money for colesium? Or funding cuts to the UofA being the most severe of all institutions provincially even though it’s our top school by most measurements of students/prestige/research/economic impact/etc.

Or the fact that Edmonton hasn’t had a new hospital built in 45 years, even though the population has doubled and geographically the city is twice the size/distance too.

Obviously the goal isn’t perfect equity. But Danielle smith has been brutally biased for the sake of vote buying and it’s incredibly frustrating for Edmontonians. Especially since the Edmonton region will likely be bigger than Calgary in the coming decade. Funding needs to serve the population. Not just swing voters.

 

[badc0ffee]

Especially since the Edmonton region will likely be bigger than Calgary in the coming decade.

I'd be interested to know where you read this. Even within the country, Edmonton seems to have a lower profile

 

[Urb]

I'd be interested to know where you read this. Even within the country, Edmonton seems to have a lower profile

Same here. Reading Edmonton will be bigger than Calgary made me LOL.

 

[Mountain Man]

I do believe before last year, Edmonton's CMA was growing slightly faster than Calgary's, but that trend flipped back last year.

 

[Alex_YYC]

Especially since the Edmonton region will likely be bigger than Calgary in the coming decade.

Sorry, I don't mean to seem blunt here, and I'm not sure what you're basing your prediction on, but there's literally no chance of that happening. Calgary is growing faster than Edmonton on a yearly basis, and based on natural increase and international migration trends, it isn't likely to change anytime soon. Even if Edmonton magically started to grow faster than Calgary it has to grow by roughly 10K more people than Calgary each year for 10 years straight even for it to catch up.
To add to that Calgary will also be adding another 100K to its regional population sometime in the next decade when it adds Foothills MD whereas Edmonton's CMA won't be expanding its boundaries for quite a long time.. I don't think Edmonton will ever be bigger than Calgary, that ship has sailed.

I do believe before last year, Edmonton's CMA was growing slightly faster than Calgary's, but that trend flipped back last year.

There were two years where Edmonton's CMA grew faster than Calgary's - I think, but not sure it was in 2016 and 2017 (when Calgary's economy was at its worst shape in decades) In every year after, 2018 as well as the 20 years preceding 2016 Calgary has grown faster.

Calgary growth difference from Edmonton 2018 onward.
2018 - 2019 +4K
2019 - 2020 +3K
2020 - 2021 +3K
2021 - 2022 +14K

 

[haltcatchfire]

Same here. Reading Edmonton will be bigger than Calgary made me LOL.

They just use a larger font so they can say Edmonton is bigger.

 

[Zoom]

All the predictions I’ve seen for future growth of the 2 cities show the gap widening over time.
They're only predictions, of course, and can change over time, but it makes sense that Calgary would continue to grow at a faster pace.

 

[Surrealplaces]

The chances of Edmonton being the larger metro in a decade are pretty low. Maybe someday, but not within a decade's time or even 2 decade's time. As Alex_yyc pointed out, it would take 10 straight years of Edmonton growing by at least 10K more than Calgary to pass it within a decade.
As seen on the chart below, in only 2 years out of the past 20 has Edmonton grown by more people in a single year, and only by 2K and 1K respectively in 2016 and 2017 Those two years were during Calgary's lowest point economically in decades, and Edmonton didn't gain much at that time. Their chance to make population gains on Calgary was a few years ago when Calgary's economy was flattened, but it didn't happen.
Then there's the other matter of Foothills MD. Once that's added it's going there's going to be a 200K difference in population. It could take Edmonton 50 years to catch up to Calgary. TBH, I don't think it ever will, but that's just my two cents.

 

[CBBarnett]

For effective purposes, both cities will be relatively the same size in the next decade and differences in sheer size are relatively meaningless at this scale. Both cities have many great qualities, unique but similar benefitting from their sizes.

More critically, continued growth in both cities means an increasing urban and big city Alberta. Calgary-Edmonton corridor will keep creeping up its population share. This is really exciting politically and economically.

A rail connection of sufficient quality would be the real game changer - 2 cities of 1.5 million each is forgettable, hundreds of examples all around the world. Corridors of 3+ million acting as increasingly a singular urban economic entity is some real weight with more noticeable consequences is far more exciting than the sheer size of each city on its own.

 

[Mountain Man]

Just with how much bigger of a profile Calgary has, I don't expect Edmonton to pass us in population again.

 

[konradiical]

Calgary will slowly pull away, but I think they will always be similar baring any huge swings. Calgary is just more attractive and has more eyes on it. Calgary is starting to have a more "Metropolitan" feel than just a city like before.

I'm curious about Halifax, as it has a lot going for it and it seems very trendy the last couple of years. Also being the only big east coast city. Could see it joining the Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Hamilton tier decently soon

 

[Mountain Man]

Halifax is about half the size of Winnipeg, they have a long way to go yet. I'd be curious to see who grows faster, Halifax or Victoria.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Just for kicks a chart showing growth in raw numbers of our major metros over the past 20 years. Calgary is not that far off from Vancouver and Montreal in terms of raw numbers. Edmonton is falling back, but has kept itself in the race, and Toronto's in league of its own. Kitchener is one that interests me. It has seen some high growth over the past and at 622K is moving into the third tier league with Winnipeg, Hamilton, etc.. It's the fastest growing of the third tier cities, growing faster than Winnipeg over the past 5 years.

source

 

[Surrealplaces]

Calgary will slowly pull away, but I think they will always be similar baring any huge swings. Calgary is just more attractive and has more eyes on it. Calgary is starting to have a more "Metropolitan" feel than just a city like before.

I'm curious about Halifax, as it has a lot going for it and it seems very trendy the last couple of years. Also being the only big east coast city. Could see it joining the Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Hamilton tier decently soon

Halifax will make its way up there if it can keep the momentum going. It had a big growth year in 2022 due to so many people moving from Ontario due to remote work options. The question is whether that high volume will keep going.
A city that's flying under the radar is Kitchener. Now at 622K and the fastest growing city out of the top 6 over the past 5 years. The proximity to Toronto could cause massive growth in the near future, It'll be a fun one to watch.