[King of Kensington]

The federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau have won all 25 seats in the City of Toronto in two elections. Will this happen again, or will Toronto have at least one non-Liberal MP (maybe Davenport going orange or something)?

 

[Jonny5]

All, or almost all. I will hedge on the ridings in the far north and east of Scarborough that I really don't know much about, but beyond that, yes, I think they get them all. I don't see the Greens being a factor either, beyond pulling out an equal share of both Liberal and NDP voters to them if they put forward some kind of convincing campaign, but I don't think they have the resources for that to flip enough voters. They also appear distracted right now by infighting, per reports from The Star. The Ontario Greens, yes, maybe they could get one in Toronto, but not the national ones right now.

 

[junctionist]

I doubt it. Many people are upset with the slow procurement of vaccines, high spending, and having to spend $300 a night for a terrible hotel upon arrival from overseas by plane.

 

[afransen]

I would be on at least 1 NDP win.

 

[afransen]

I doubt it. Many people are upset with the slow procurement of vaccines, high spending, and having to spend $300 a night for a terrible hotel upon arrival from overseas by plane.

I doubt there are "many" who are affected by hotel quarantines. A very noisy and entitled minority, to be sure.

 

[christiesplits]

The Greens could win Toronto Centre after Annamie Paul placed a very strong second in the by-election. Expect the Greens to put all their resources in the GTA into the riding in the next general.

The Conservatives had a solid showing in York Centre in the last by-election. There is a growing Filipino electorate in the riding who tend to be socially conservative, so they could flip it.

The NDP came close to winning Davenport in 2019, and if the winds are right, could be competitive in Parkdale High Park or Toronto Danforth..

 

[Admiral Beez]

The Greens could win Toronto Centre after Annamie Paul placed a very strong second in the by-election. Expect the Greens to put all their resources in the GTA into the riding in the next general.

I voted for Paul in the last election, and will again. But it's a lost cause, my neighbours are the ultimate sheeple. I know the Greens do more than environmental issues, but that's their core brand and during the pandemic no one is caring about the climate or plastic waste, etc.

 

[Videodrome]

I think they will win every seat and the GTA will be a sea of red again.

 

[christiesplits]

I wonder how high the Liberals would have to poll to win all of Ontario? They did it in 1997, but that was when Reform and PCs split the conservative vote and the NDP felt the blowback of the Rae years.

 

[King of Kensington]

I wonder how high the Liberals would have to poll to win all of Ontario? They did it in 1997, but that was when Reform and PCs split the conservative vote and the NDP felt the blowback of the Rae years.

Probably around 50%. In addition to the PC/Reform split in the 90s that benefitted the Liberals , there's also been a "sorting" of electorates with metropolitan areas trending left and rural areas trending right.

 

[King of Kensington]

.

The NDP came close to winning Davenport in 2019, and if the winds are right, could be competitive in Parkdale High Park or Toronto Danforth..

From what I've heard, Andrew Cash was considering another run, but withdrew.

But yeah Davenport is probably the closest riding to an NDP seat nowadays: young, creative and lacking the significant upper middle class swaths found in other Toronto ridings.

One problem is that the NDP and Liberals are more similar than they've ever been. Justin Trudeau has a strong appeal to culturally liberal urban residents. The difference between the NDP and Liberals was wider in the 90s as the Chretien era Liberals were more center-right than the Liberals are today. The NDP also seems to have less of a distinct base now under Jagmeet Singh and the NDP vote seems to be increasingly "shadowing" the Liberal vote, which it makes it harder to win urban seats.

In the last election, the Liberals won Parkdale-High Park by 10,000 votes and Danforth by 8,000. Not an insurmountable obstacle, but would require a good swing in their direction.

 

[ShonTron]

I voted for Paul in the last election, and will again. But it's a lost cause, my neighbours are the ultimate sheeple. I know the Greens do more than environmental issues, but that's their core brand and during the pandemic no one is caring about the climate or plastic waste, etc.

I’m not a Green supporter, but I too bang my head against the wall here in Toronto Centre, where the Liberals take us for granted and the voters here will take whatever they appoint for us to rubber stamp.

 

[King of Kensington]

Was Annamie Paul's run a game-changer in Toronto Centre? Will it vote dramatically differently than Spadina-Fort York or University-Rosedale with the Green leader running there? Will NDP voters swing Green to defeat a Liberal?

I noticed in the poll by polls she did very well in high turnout Cabbagetown and poorly in low turnout St. James Town. The Liberals also won the Village but Greens were competitive there.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Was Annamie Paul's run a game-changer in Toronto Centre? Will it vote dramatically differently than Spadina-Fort York or University-Rosedale with the Green leader running there? Will NDP voters swing Green to defeat a Liberal?

I noticed in the poll by polls she did very well in high turnout Cabbagetown and poorly in low turnout St. James Town. The Liberals also won the Village but Greens were competitive there.

I think she’s in the wrong riding. She appeals to POC and in Toronto Centre my guess is POC are not voters, either because they’re not yet citizens or they’re young adults. It’s the old guard who vote in Toronto Centre, and they’re solidly Liberal. There are a growing group of Green supporters here in CT, I’m one, but we’re few.

 

[yin_yang]

King of Kensington, who are you? I've probably seen you in the market, I have lived here for ten years.