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chrisw said:
@DopeyFish The original question was regarding 5 car stations.

Also, I don't think crush capacity is the crowding standard.
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they said "That's an 8 year window where we potentially go from a very congested trains" and i'm showing it's incredibly unlikely to reach that

and crush capacity is just to show that even if there was a potential for capacity to be reached on the first few trains, ongoing capacity would far outstrip potential if they hit the big flashing use full train sets button and was highlighting the busiest route for that purpose

seated capacity = 162 per car x 8 = 1,296 x 18 trains per hour = 23,328 passengers per hour. right now the frequency is every 15 minutes in rush hour and at *crush* that would be 20,000 with a full 12 car set. so even at seated capacity for an 8 car train during only the 2 hours during each rush hour in the morning and evening alone would be a 38% increase of ridership for LSW without accounting for any trips made in-between or in the evening or the weekends. I just don't see it as probable that ridership would increase by so much even on the most developed route to where you're seeing congestion as a normal thing when the contract expires, rather than the anomaly that I expect to be isolated to be a few trains in the morning and a few trains in the evening

that's all I'm getting at.
 
DopeyFish said:
i just want to say how unlikely it would be for them to really hit capacity even by then

12 car trains at crush load with 5 minute headway theoretically on all 7 lines just for one hour every day would over *quadruple* GO ridership without accounting for a single other passenger... and that's ignoring express trains.

Lakeshore West is *by far* the busiest route and just using Wiki here but 2017 stats showed 17.7 million riders for the year. If the entire ridership was focused down to 2 hours per week day (so both directions), that would equate to 34,000 passengers per direction.

The rough expected crush capacity with a full train set for 2 hours at peak would be 180,000 (~18 trains x 5000 x 2). Do you really think Lakeshore west is going to increase ridership nearly 5x in 20 years? the theoretical capacity of each electrified GO train line, using electric locomotives and bombardier bilevels is higher than the *entire* ridership of the TTC at present day.

to put the absurdity of this capacity into context, there's like 10 stations on the typical all day lakeshore west train starting at aldershot. So every station there'd have to be 2-3 people entering every station *every second* in order to conceivably hit crush capacity and I think we're a long long long long long long ways away from having 2 constant single file lines at any station and this is ignoring people getting off and people going the other direction.

like i'm not kidding here, I think you'd run into other major issues long before the trains fill up. This capacity is well beyond this regions current ability to meet it, even at rush hour.
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Another reminder that 12 car trains will be going away and probably not coming back. the longest train will be 8 cars and after electrification probably 6
 
generalcanada said:
Another reminder that 12 car trains will be going away and probably not coming back. the longest train will be 8 cars and after electrification probably 6
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With respect to all-day services, sure. But there will be peak trains loaded to the max, and these will have to make all the stops in the timecard on some routes/runs - and these will have to be timed to reflect that loading.

All-day service will mitigate peak demand, but it won't eliminate the peak. The all-day market is different and adds to, but does not replace, workday commuting.

- Paul
 
crs1026 said:
With respect to all-day services, sure. But there will be peak trains loaded to the max, and these will have to make all the stops in the timecard on some routes/runs - and these will have to be timed to reflect that loading.

All-day service will mitigate peak demand, but it won't eliminate the peak. The all-day market is different and adds to, but does not replace, workday commuting.

- Paul
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even peak service like for 8am trains from Oakville, Im telling you those trains will be 6-8 cars max. Theres draft timetables that show this even starting next year
 
generalcanada said:
even peak service like for 8am trains from Oakville, Im telling you those trains will be 6-8 cars max. Theres draft timetables that show this even starting next year
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The draft timetables sent for Union Station Modelling still shows a few 12 car trains next year on Lakeshore West.
 
generalcanada said:
even peak service like for 8am trains from Oakville, Im telling you those trains will be 6-8 cars max. Theres draft timetables that show this even starting next year
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Then why are the latest platform projects (eg Long Branch, Mimico, Park Lawn, Exhibition) being built to a 12 car template ?

- Paul
 
crs1026 said:
Then why are the latest platform projects (eg Long Branch, Mimico, Park Lawn, Exhibition) being built to a 12 car template ?

- Paul
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because ML doesnt have the brainpower to think ahead of what they WILL need vs what the current needs are. same with TTC and their new order of trams that still have trolley poles in an all panto line...
its all a copy/paste exercise for their spec, yet they still manage to take 4x as longer than if a brand new spec was created from scratch
 
crs1026 said:
With respect to all-day services, sure. But there will be peak trains loaded to the max, and these will have to make all the stops in the timecard on some routes/runs - and these will have to be timed to reflect that loading.

All-day service will mitigate peak demand, but it won't eliminate the peak. The all-day market is different and adds to, but does not replace, workday commuting

- Paul
Click to expand...
crs1026 said:
Then why are the latest platform projects (eg Long Branch, Mimico, Park Lawn, Exhibition) being built to a 12 car template ?

- Paul
Click to expand...
transitioning from electric locomotive + bombardier bilevels to EMUs of some kind in the future

you will have fully loaded trains no matter what, what will be different is how many... and the answer is not much as i said you wouldn't conceivably be able to just because you'd need two single file lines at every station in order to reach that capacity with any consistency. so it's probable to happen during morning rush hour for a few trains but it's possible but rather unlikely to have it happen in the evening because union itself doesn't have the walkway capacity to feed a train that many passengers as they aren't going to be dwelling a train for 10 minutes like they do now. it's a train every 200 seconds on average.
 
cplchanb said:
because ML doesnt have the brainpower to think ahead of what they WILL need vs what the current needs are. same with TTC and their new order of trams that still have trolley poles in an all panto line...
its all a copy/paste exercise for their spec, yet they still manage to take 4x as longer than if a brand new spec was created from scratch
Click to expand...
What would you have them do? Build shorter stations and have trains open only half the doors? I have no idea what alternative solution is on the table here.
 
T3G said:
What would you have them do? Build shorter stations and have trains open only half the doors? I have no idea what alternative solution is on the table here.
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if they are building for a future with more frequent shorter trains than yes. its a tremendous waste of taxpayers dollars to build something for only 10% usage over accommodating a situation that comes only 10% of the time.
 
If you have an 8 car train on a 12 car platform, that certainly provides some crowd management flexibility in an "eclipse" scenario, as well as some options around platform refurbishment (open 6 car doors at the end of the platform, do works at top half, then switch). And until the electrification is actually done, you are properly accommodating passengers in 12 car trainsets.
 
cplchanb said:
if they are building for a future with more frequent shorter trains than yes. its a tremendous waste of taxpayers dollars to build something for only 10% usage over accommodating a situation that comes only 10% of the time.
Click to expand...
And how far off is that future?? Remember that this is Metrolinx we are dealing with. At this time it's vapourware, and until (unless) the project sees completion I'm sure I'm not the only one who appreciates not having to be discerning of what coach I get on for every possible station.
 
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