[Towered]

The answer is No.

The fair comparison to the GGH is the London Metropolitan Area, which is currently at a population of 14,257,000

London metropolitan area - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The GTAH probably will overtake Greater London (not the Metropolitan number), but the GGH is unlikely to overtake its comparator, at least in the next 10-15 years.

That said, currently, the City of Toronto is growing much faster than those numbers cited above suggest. We're likely to hit that 2041 number by 2031 at the latest and maybe a few years sooner.

That chart needs to seriously be updated - it's projecting a 416 population of 3.19 million by 2031, while we've already reached 3 million in 2020...

 

[WislaHD]

That chart needs to seriously be updated - it's projecting a 416 population of 3.19 million by 2031, while we've already reached 3 million in 2020...

Well it's taken from the province's 2019 update to the Growth Plan ?

 

[SunriseChampion]

Maybe they foresaw the coronavirus outbreak and it being a bit of a demographic speedbump, if you know what I mean.

Sorry, is that too morbid for a Tuesday?

 

[WislaHD]

Maybe they foresaw the coronavirus outbreak and it being a bit of a demographic speedbump, if you know what I mean.

Sorry, is that too morbid for a Tuesday?

Uhh yes I think so.

In my time of looking at census information I don't believe I have seen any population projections that include the possibility of pandemic.

 

[Johnny Au]

Uhh yes I think so.

In my time of looking at census information I don't believe I have seen any population projections that include the possibility of pandemic.

...or war.

After all, the Doomsday Clock has been closest to midnight in history this year (and that's including 1962, the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis).

 

[SunriseChampion]

Uhh yes I think so.

In my time of looking at census information I don't believe I have seen any population projections that include the possibility of pandemic.

I would imagine....that would be some seriously pessimistic and entirely fabricated numbers.

 

[Northern Light]

This post today from another thread made me do a double-take.

Is the Greater Golden Horseshoe poised to overtake Greater London?

View attachment 227798 View attachment 227799

New projections out via the Ontario Population Projection to 2046.

Ontario population projections

Learn about the 2020-2046 population projections for Ontario and its 49 census divisions.

www.fin.gov.on.ca

They have a number for the GTA, excluding Hamilton, of 10.2M in 2046

If you assumed that the rest of the numbers in the chart above flatlined from 2041 (there is no GGH number in today's link)

You get 11,000,000 for the GTAH, 15.1M for the GGH

The 2046 number for the City of Toronto is now 4.27M

 

[AlbertC]

The population of the Toronto area will hit 8 million in the next 10 years. It’s make or break time — are we ready?

Transit crunches. Housing shortages. Climate change. This is 2030. As we enter a new decade, the Star looks at the decade ahead and what Greater Toronto can do to realize its full potential as it takes its place among the world’s megacities.

By Mitch Potter Staff Reporter
Fri., Jan. 31, 2020

Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

Outline is a free service for reading and annotating news articles. We remove the clutter so you can analyze and comment on the content.

outline.com

The population of the Toronto area will hit 8 million in the next 10 years. It’s make or break time — are we ready?

Transit crunches. Housing shortages. Climate change. Will the Toronto of 2030 be a prosperous, livable city — or a gridlocked urban nightmare? As we enter a new decade, the Star is embarking on an ambitious yearlong project to find practical solutions for the most pressing problems facing...

www.thestar.com

 

[W. K. Lis]

We need more hospitals, more schools, more public transit, more parks, etc..

We do not need cuts to those services.

 

[WislaHD]

So now are we overtaking London? ?

I'm trying to visualize the scale of the population increase in my head, and where these people are going to live. We need to make some serious changes and quick. We have an arterial grid network in Toronto, I think we need to build a BRT on each and every one of them. A highly-functioning BRT system would feed our rapid transit network and make commuting throughout the city much quicker, easier, and more reliable, while also making lots of land attractive for development as commute times to jobs declines.

It is time for the City to finally grow up.

 

[Northern Light]

So now are we overtaking London? ?

LOL, answer is still no.

Greater London is set to grow, based on current projections, by 1.2M by 2041.

As I did w/the GTA, assume the 'outer ring' flatlines, since I don't have that number; you still get growth to 15.4M; which would be 300,000 larger than GGH........5 years later.

 

[SunriseChampion]

It is time for the City to finally grow up.

???


Best of luck....that time was at least 30 years ago. Don't worry, they'll write us up a nice report. PDF. With photos and graphs galore! And then they'll spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on implementing it....oh....never mind, new overlords...cancel that. Write another report.

I'll be dead and this place will not have "grown up" yet.

It's sort of one of the things I like about Toronto and Ontario......the ridiculousness and absurdity of it all. Hi, our trains run on early 20th century technology...well, the ones we didn't cancel to replace with early 20th century technology on wheels anyway.

What's that? Perfectly good arable land? Excellent! These poorly-built matchstick homes will fit here perfectly! We don't need farms...every idiot knows that food comes from the supermarket.

What's this beautiful lakefront doing here? Slap a highway on it. What's that? Yon highway is falling apart and is uneconomical to keep running? Rebuild it!!! We couldn't get the Spadina Expressway so we'll cling to this asphalt and concrete tumour.

Hey, look at this.....a whole area of old warehouses! Let's turn it into parking and big box stores because inner suburbs!


Yeah.....grow up indeed. Best of luck. I like your optimism though!

 

[TrickyRicky]

Statscan has 2019 Population estimates up now by CMA. Their graphics show percentage growth but I whipped up a 2018-2019 graphic to show the year-over-year change in population in raw numbers. This shows visually how dominant Toronto is as an urban area in Canada. Of note however is there is a large net loss of population from the Toronto CMA to the rest of the country probably reflecting people fleeing higher living costs. Not sure if this is structural or something that could or should be tackled as a policy concern.

 

[TrickyRicky]

Another interesting note is that if we look at population growth for all the media hype population change is largely just a function of the size of the existing population base.

Remember when everyone moved to Hamilton in the 2010’s? Or people fleeing high housing in Vancouver and Toronto or the recession in Alberta or economic revival in Montreal or everyone moving to the East coast! Nope growth is relatively uniform and proportional to population base

 

[Jasmine18]

Thing is there is a housing shortage.

Like here in Brampton, so many illegal basements with like 8-10 people living in them .