[Mountain Man]

When do the census numbers come out?

 

[Cowtown]

When do the census numbers come out?

In the past they've come out early in the year following the census year. Should be out in Q1 of 2022.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

That exact topic was discussed 7 posts previous, last week. The timeline is also there for the release of detailed census numbers.

 

[Surrealplaces]

This is from @CBBarnett's post

This is from wikipedia. Should be February 2022 for the first release:

• February 9, 2022, for population and dwelling counts;
• April 27, 2022, for age, sex at birth, and gender, type of dwelling;
• July 13, 2022, for families, households, and marital status, Canadian military experience, and income;
• August 17, 2022, for language;
• September 21, 2022, for indigenous peoples, and housing;
• October 26, 2022, for immigration, place of birth, and citizenship, ethnocultural and religious diversity, and mobility and migration; and
• November 30, 2022, for education, labour, language of work, commuting and instruction in the official minority language.

Feb 9th will be like Christmas for the stat geeks.

 

[kora]

2021 CMA estimates are out for Calgary. A considerable slowdown in growth due to pandemic.

2019 - 1,514,426
2020 - 1,544,817
2021 - 1,559,284

2019-2020 change: 30, 391
2020-2021 change: 14,467

Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2016 boundaries

Annual population estimates as of July 1st, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, single year of age, five-year age group and sex, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2016.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

StatsCan, Population estimates, July 1

 

[CBBarnett]

2021 CMA estimates are out for Calgary. A considerable slowdown in growth due to pandemic.

2019 - 1,514,426
2020 - 1,544,817
2021 - 1,559,284

2019-2020 change: 30, 391
2020-2021 change: 14,467

Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2016 boundaries

Annual population estimates as of July 1st, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, single year of age, five-year age group and sex, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2016.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

StatsCan, Population estimates, July 1

Thanks for posting! Ran a quick chart on the export. This is for all of Canada, aggregated by CMA, CA and not CA or CMA between 2001 and 2021:

As expected, the major contraction in immigration during the pandemic collapsed growth in the big CMA cities across the board (e.g. Toronto's CMA was only up 16,000 in 2021 after averaging 88K per year the previous 20 years). Calgary's young and (still) relatively higher birth rate probably kept us near the top of the big CMA cities from a growth rate perspective.

Notable growth trend was the non CA/CMA areas, for the first time passing the rate of CAs and CMAs. This probably reflects what we have been hearing - some movement to smaller centres/rural for remote working and acceleration to retirement towns farther from centres. This is likely the first time in many decades (or a century?) the non-CA/CMA growth rate surpassed the CA and CMA rate. While the rate change is dramatic, it's important to recognize this is from a very small base:

The numbers from these estimates make me think that the constant rhetoric the past year of everyone "abandoning the cities because they are too expensive and leveraging a new work-from-home lifestyle" is fairly anecdotal and overblown on aggregate. It is happening and certainly is a change from historic trends, but it is actually not materially large in number of people. The real story far-larger-in-magnitude story is we get a taste of what growth looks like when immigration is minimal for a year.

It will be good to true these up with the official census results in a month and also see in the coming years the degree in which this new trend sustains or is just a pandemic-only blip in the data.

 

[Surrealplaces]

A few more numbers to kick around.

1) Toronto - 6,572,524
2) Montréal - 4,342,213
3) Vancouver - 2,773,148
4) Calgary - 1,559,284
5) Edmonton - 1,480,754
6) Ottawa - 1,476,756
7) Winnipeg - 852,778
8) Quebec- 836,837
9) Hamilton - 812,528
10) Kitchener - 600,304
11) London - 556,397
12) Halifax - 460,274
13) St. Catharines - Niagara - 439,777
14) Oshawa - 434,736
15) Victoria - 415,573
16) Windsor - 351,116
17) Saskatoon - 340,086
18) Regina - 263,659
19) Kelowna - 229,400
20) Sherbrooke - 227,403

Growth in percentages of the large 6 metros

1. Toronto - 6,572,524 (0.2%)
2. Montreal - 4,342,213 (-0.6%)
3. Vancouver - 2,773,148 (1.0%)
4. Calgary - 1,559,284 (0.9%)
5. Edmonton - 1,480,754 (0.9%)
6. Ottawa-Gatineau - 1,476,756 (0.8%)

Growth (or loss) in actual numbers of the top 10 metros

1- Vancouver 26,667
2 - Tor 15,924
3 - Cgy 14,467
4 - Edm 12,611
5 - Ott 12,162
6 - Kit 5,977
7 - Ham 5,375
8 - Que 4,514
9 - Win 1,567
10 - Mon (25,212)

One thing of interest is the mid sized cities like Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa have shown consistent growth over the past years, even through covid etc.. They seem to be at a critical mass where they aren't as affected by short term blips like covid, international immigration numbers, etc..

 

[Surrealplaces]

The numbers from these estimates make me think that the constant rhetoric the past year of everyone "abandoning the cities because they are too expensive and leveraging a new work-from-home lifestyle" is fairly anecdotal and overblown on aggregate. It is happening and certainly is a change from historic trends, but it is actually not materially large in number of people. The real story far-larger-in-magnitude story is we get a taste of what growth looks like when immigration is minimal for a year.

It will be good to true these up with the official census results in a month and also see in the coming years the degree in which this new trend sustains or is just a pandemic-only blip in the data.

I’ve been wondering about this trend over the last few years. As some cities become too large and too expensive it makes me wonder if there will be trend to smaller or mid sized cities? I think it will happen to some extent…..to what extent only time will tell.

Remote working definitely allows more options for place of residence ranging from different cities or towns to even places like acreages or farms.

I think a city like Calgary is kind of a sweet spot for many. Big enough for a city lifestyle, but small enough to get around the city as well as get away from the city. Also relatively inexpensive to live in.

 

[kora]

The honeymoon phase of our huge natural increase is rapidly disappearing. I think it's halved in the past 5 years. Add to that out-migration of the 20-40 year old age bracket.

 

[gsunnyg]

The honeymoon phase of our huge natural increase is rapidly disappearing. I think it's halved in the past 5 years. Add to that out-migration of the 20-40 year old age bracket.

I think we may just reverse back up. A lot of people I talk to in BC want to move out and buy property in Calgary. On top of that, jobs are coming back. For new English-speaking immigrants, Vancouver and Toronto are way too expensive, so the next best choice they have left is Calgary. Ottawa and Edmonton still lack that "city-living" feel. Their downtowns aren't very developed and the airports aren't at a global level.

 

[Surrealplaces]

The honeymoon phase of our huge natural increase is rapidly disappearing. I think it's halved in the past 5 years. Add to that out-migration of the 20-40 year old age bracket.

I haven’t seen recent numbers but I thought the age bracket for people in their 30’s was increasing? The main loss was in the 20-24 age group.

Natural increase is definitely down, but last I saw it was only down around 20-25% either way though it’s an issue facing all Canadian cities the past few years.

I’m feeling positive about the numbers for Calgary. I’d be concerned if I was looking at the Toronto or Montreal numbers. It’s well known that their growth has come from primarily from international immigration in past years. It’ll pick up again as Canada goes back to full immigration numbers, however going forward the smaller and midsize cities are going to start taking more of that share.

 

[CBBarnett]

Great visuals here of all the big cities over time, including Calgary v. everyone else on the components of their population change. Really highlights Calgary's long-run terrible relative performance on young/student populations, but long run strength in older demographics:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482480526288064514

 

[Surrealplaces]

Okay found the numbers @kora is referring to. Over the years from 2016-2019 there was loss in that 20-34 age group.

Definitely concerning, but I would also say that we really need to to see a longer time period. Those three years were tough economic times for the city. In one of those years the city had a net out migration loss and only gained some population due to natural increase.
Those younger age groups are more mobile and likely to leave in though economic times.

It’ll be interesting to see how how Calgary’s numbers shake out from 2020-2023 or beyond.

 

[Cowtown]

The honeymoon phase of our huge natural increase is rapidly disappearing. I think it's halved in the past 5 years. Add to that out-migration of the 20-40 year old age bracket.

The past 5 years don't make a good case study. You can attribute a lot of the numbers in the past 5 years to a struggling economy. Calgary had strong numbers for the previous 20 years, in the natural increase and youth department, despite the city culture not really being much different. In fact I would say the city culture is better now than it was 10 years ago when Calgary was retaining its youth. The next 5 years will tell a better story.

When comparing Calgary to other Canadian metros over the past couple of years, I would describe Calgary as surprisingly strong. Given our struggling economy we should be way behind government cities like Edmonton or Ottawa and behind cities like Toronto or Montreal with their ultra urban lifestyle, but we're consistently doing better than those cities - even in tough times. This isn't to say Calgary is the greatest ever, but it shows that we have something going for us here.

 

[kora]

2020-2021 saw a natural increase of 7,624, the lowest level in 20 years, even as the population has increased considerably since then. So per capita it's the lowest it's been for more than 2 decades. That may be a pandemic blip, but our natural increase has been steadily declining since the 2015-2016 peak of 12,314.

Interactive dashboard, StatsCan population estimates, Calgary CMA

Annual demographic estimates, census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations: Interactive dashboard

This interactive dashboard allows the user to visualize the factors of population growth and how they have changed over time for census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations. The dashboard shows population, population growth, factors of population growth (natural increase, international...

www150.statcan.gc.ca