[tmlittle]

Yeah, I took a 25, after the term was over, at 9pm from Sq1 to the University, on a Sunday, and it was absolutely full. Pretty sure they sent another bus. Anyway, they really need the Thursday/Friday/Sunday express busses back.

Yeah, I think this is an example of GO not being responsive to the weekend traveller market. With so many Torontonians clearly having permanently moved to the region, there's going to be an surge in weekend trips back. Even if 5am commuter runs are empty, it's not a good situation for ridership if GO fails to take advantage of this demand.

 

[smallspy]

Or, instead of slowing down train schedules, they could keep the local trains short (e.g. 6-car MP40 or 8-car MP54) and add supplemental express service during periods where more capacity is required.

There are not enough locos and cab-cars in service today to do this in any meaningful way.

Perhaps once the new locos now on tender start to arrive - and assuming that there are more usable cab cars, in whatever way shape that takes form - then this can be done.

On LSW, they obviously need to reintroduce peak-period express service from Niagara and Hamilton (these can be longer trains), and during the midday they could run an hourly express service from West Harbour (cutting the local service back to Aldershot or Burlington).

The expresses are due to come back, but I haven't seen or heard anything to suggest that their return is imminent.

There will be off-peak express service eventually, but I'd suggest that it would be best to concentrate on getting the normal service back to where it should be first.

Dan

 

[reaperexpress]

There are not enough locos and cab-cars in service today to do this in any meaningful way.

Perhaps once the new locos now on tender start to arrive - and assuming that there are more usable cab cars, in whatever way shape that takes form - then this can be done.

Why not? We ran more frequent peak-period service in 2019 than we do today, and peak-hour ridership was much higher. Surely if we ran the same level of peak period service today, we could arrange for some of the local trains to be shorter than they were in 2019, due to the less-pronounced peak period surge.

The expresses are due to come back, but I haven't seen or heard anything to suggest that their return is imminent.

There will be off-peak express service eventually, but I'd suggest that it would be best to concentrate on getting the normal service back to where it should be first.

The problem with boosting local train frequency without ever introducing express service is that GO is simply missing out on part of the market, namely the longer trips. Local trains work fine when you're coming in from Mississauga or Oakville, but needing to sit on a local train all the way from Burlington, Hamilton, St Catharines or Niagara is a huge obstacle to potential ridership. And with increased hybrid home/work setups, we can reasonably expect an increase in long-distance commuting trips compared to the pre-pandemic situation around which the "normal" service was designed. GO should be setting itself up to capture those trips, since it already has the infrastructure to do so.

So rather than returning to the 4 tph local we briefly had at the end of 2021, I would prefer 3 tph local + 1 tph express.

This is the same problem that route 25 is facing: their 2021 service increased the local service from 1 bus per hour to 2, rather than restoring the express service. But this would lose many former 25 Express bus riders (such as myself), for whom the local bus' travel time is already a deal breaker, regardless of how frequent it is.

 

[ShonTron]

I also get the sense that Metrolinx is just terrible at listening to its customers and customer service/relations. Route 88 is just as borked as the 25 now, when GO restructured that route to take over part of Route 90 through Bowmanville. It might look good on a spreadsheet with passenger loads and cost reductions, but it became intolerably long to get to Peterborough, and with Greyhound gone, no other carrier has yet picked up the Toronto-Peterborough market. There's lots of complaining about Route 25 on Twitter, but you just get the sense that Metrolinx doesn't care.

 

[ShonTron]

I've personally noticed issues with the 25 and 30, as well as hearing about it from other people. I talked to a GO employee a month or so ago while riding an at-capacity 30 bus that had to leave passengers behind, who pointed out that extending the 30 to UWaterloo without any other service improvements has been a disaster. Now that more Waterloo students are back, GO needs to bring back the 25 express variants that pulled Waterloo riders off the "milk run" 25 bus and levelled out ridership. Currently it seems buses depart Waterloo basically full, are already almost at capacity once they reach Kitchener and I can't imagine what goes on in Cambridge. It creates an unfair service pattern within the tricities where someone in Cambridge who was maybe trying to make an appointment or reach a connecting service might not be able to get on the bus, or might have a very late bus due to excessive dwell times.

The other thing is that the Route 30 doesn't run weekends. Route 30 really isn't a bad bus connection to Kitchener/Waterloo, because Bramalea will soon be a really easy train/bus transfer, and it runs on a pretty quick route on the 407 and 401 (with only a stop at Meadowvale Business Park, where there's connections to other GO buses as well as Miway and BT), and extending it to U of Waterloo was a smart move. But that should have been an addition to the return of the 25C, not a substitute.

 

[stevensontransit]

I also get the sense that Metrolinx is just terrible at listening to its customers and customer service/relations. Route 88 is just as borked as the 25 now, when GO restructured that route to take over part of Route 90 through Bowmanville. It might look good on a spreadsheet with passenger loads and cost reductions, but it became intolerably long to get to Peterborough, and with Greyhound gone, no other carrier has yet picked up the Toronto-Peterborough market. There's lots of complaining about Route 25 on Twitter, but you just get the sense that Metrolinx doesn't care.

You can tell how irresponsible GO transit is these days.

 

[smallspy]

Why not? We ran more frequent peak-period service in 2019 than we do today, and peak-hour ridership was much higher. Surely if we ran the same level of peak period service today, we could arrange for some of the local trains to be shorter than they were in 2019, due to the less-pronounced peak period surge.

Because there are 65-ish trainsets in service today, with a locomotive roster of 91. That's almost at the limit of the number of units that can be used in service every day - they might be able to manage another 5 units each day. Unlike a bus, there are regulatory restrictions to the operation of locomotives and railcars. The same goes for cab cars although to a lesser degree, and so the spare ratio can be lower - and the refurbished cab cars will help this.

The additional 20 or so locomotives that are projected to be purchased will help ameliorate this.

The problem with boosting local train frequency without ever introducing express service is that GO is simply missing out on part of the market, namely the longer trips. Local trains work fine when you're coming in from Mississauga or Oakville, but needing to sit on a local train all the way from Burlington, Hamilton, St Catharines or Niagara is a huge obstacle to potential ridership. And with increased hybrid home/work setups, we can reasonably expect an increase in long-distance commuting trips compared to the pre-pandemic situation around which the "normal" service was designed. GO should be setting itself up to capture those trips, since it already has the infrastructure to do so.

Is it though?

Ridership has been coming back quite strongly in the off-peak hours when there is no express service. And the off-peak ridership was very, very robust prior to COVID.

So rather than returning to the 4 tph local we briefly had at the end of 2021, I would prefer 3 tph local + 1 tph express.

Strongly disagree.

The higher the frequencies we make the operation, the more likely that people will view the service like a subway, where one simply just shows up at a station - they don't need to think about a schedule. The less time people spend waiting for the service, the more likely they are to use the service.

The time spent in transit isn't as important because at that point they feel that they are already in motion, and so it isn't felt as "time wasted".

Dan

 

[smallspy]

There's lots of complaining about Route 25 on Twitter, but you just get the sense that Metrolinx doesn't care.

Throwing this out there, but could it also be that it is simply a bit of an echo chamber on Twitter, with the same couple of voices making the complaints?

I know that there is definitely a case currently going on like this in Oakville/Mississauga, to the point where the transit agencies out there have blocked a number of users.

Dan

 

[reaperexpress]

Because there are 65-ish trainsets in service today, with a locomotive roster of 91. That's almost at the limit of the number of units that can be used in service every day - they might be able to manage another 5 units each day. Unlike a bus, there are regulatory restrictions to the operation of locomotives and railcars. The same goes for cab cars although to a lesser degree, and so the spare ratio can be lower - and the refurbished cab cars will help this.

The additional 20 or so locomotives that are projected to be purchased will help ameliorate this.

I don't doubt your expertise, but I'm still struggling to understand how rolling stock is the key factor preventing us from increasing peak service, when just a few months ago we were running far more service than today. As far as I'm aware, we have not sold off a bunch of cab cars and locomotives.

Is it though?

Ridership has been coming back quite strongly in the off-peak hours when there is no express service. And the off-peak ridership was very, very robust prior to COVID.

Pre-COVID there also wasn't any off-peak express service so of course operating all-local service now will restore a high proportion of that ridership. Because long-distance trips were already underrepresented in the "base case" ridership. In the case of Lakeshore West, note the popularity of Route 16, whose sole purpose is to bypass the slow local train service. Also note that the current weekend service is exactly the same as pre-pandemic, except that one hourly train now extends to West Harbour, and the schedule is a couple minutes faster (due to lower ridership during the pandemic).

During peak periods where former express services have now been eliminated, ridership has not recovered as well. There is a much bigger difference in attractiveness between the current service offerings and the pre-COVID offerings, particularly for long-distance trips. Whereas off-peak services are (nominally) faster than pre-COVID, peak services are slower due to the loss of express service.

Strongly disagree.

The higher the frequencies we make the operation, the more likely that people will view the service like a subway, where one simply just shows up at a station - they don't need to think about a schedule. The less time people spend waiting for the service, the more likely they are to use the service.

The time spent in transit isn't as important because at that point they feel that they are already in motion, and so it isn't felt as "time wasted".

The relative importance of frequency versus travel time is highly dependent on the trip distance and particular station. If you're starting from Clarkson, then clearly 4tph local will be better for you than 3tph local. But if you're at Oakville or Port Credit, there would be 4 tph either way, it's just that you have a 1/4 chance of getting an express train.

Regional bus connections such as routes 12, 15 and 18 operate hourly and are timed to meet a particular train, so if there were an hourly express service, all of those connecting passengers would benefit directly.

15 minute headways are not short enough that it is convenient to randomly show up at the station. Doing so would result in an average wait of 7.5 minutes and a maximum wait of 15 minutes. People checking the schedule before heading to the station will commonly aim around 5 minutes before departure, so the threshold for "subway-like" behaviour nominally kicks in around 10 minute headways. What going from 30-minute headways to 15-minute headways does is increase the flexibility of people's scheduling. For example, if they have an appointment at a specific time, they could avoid getting there 15 minutes earlier than necessary. But if their exact arrival moment doesn't particularly matter (e.g. job with somewhat flexible start time, leisure trips, etc), then increasing the frequency has relatively little impact on their experience. Faster service, however, always benefits them regardless of the flexibility of their schedule.

 

[reaperexpress]

^ I hope that Union Station to Oshawa express train in the AM comes back. I wanted to ride it just for fun but didn't get the chance pre-covid.

I don’t think this is coming back for years due to construction.

They'll be no regualar Lakeshore east express trains for at least 2 years, though more likely 3+ based on how much GO projects usually get delayed

GO suspends express Lakeshore East train service during three-year construction period

Additional trains making all stops between Oshawa and Union Station added

www.durhamregion.com

Despite what Metrolinx has said, it is still technically possible to run express trains on Lakeshore East despite the track closures related to Ontario Line construction.

Construction has narrowed the line between Union and Danforth to 2 tracks, but there are still 3 tracks in service from just west of Danforth to just east of Guildwood. That's a 12.8 km segment in which local trains make 4 more stops than express trains, which is enough for express trains to overtake the local train in front.

Existing Lakeshore East timetable, with hypothetical express trains added. Some of the existing local trains would need to be cut back to Pickering or Whitby due to turnback capacity limitations at Oshawa.

In general that third track is used by VIA to overtake GO trains, but the only VIA train currently scheduled during the AM peak hour is VIA 52/62, which departs Union eastbound at 08:32.

Such a service pattern would be much less robust than the current all-local service pattern due to the short headways between local and express trains. But it is technically possible.

 

[smallspy]

I don't doubt your expertise, but I'm still struggling to understand how rolling stock is the key factor preventing us from increasing peak service, when just a few months ago we were running far more service than today. As far as I'm aware, we have not sold off a bunch of cab cars and locomotives.

View attachment 405468

So, I had a discussion with a number of my buddies at Metrolinx last night, and I need to walk back my earlier contention.

Turns out that there are 49 trainsets in service each day right now. So yes, there is easily enough equipment.

Pre-COVID, there were 71 trainsets in service each day, including the 6 6-car trainsets. There would be no way to increase that number.

The issue stems from this - there are 91 locos in the fleet. They are the limiting number when it comes to how many trains can be run on any given day. There needs to be a higher spares ratio than in the transit world - 25% is seen as minimal - due to the various regulatory checks that are required by Transport Canada, such as the 92 day inspection. Coaches and cab cars also have their own regulatory inspection cycle, but they are not as stringent as that for the locos and so they can run a lower spares ratio.

Pre-COVID there also wasn't any off-peak express service so of course operating all-local service now will restore a high proportion of that ridership. Because long-distance trips were already underrepresented in the "base case" ridership. In the case of Lakeshore West, note the popularity of Route 16, whose sole purpose is to bypass the slow local train service. Also note that the current weekend service is exactly the same as pre-pandemic, except that one hourly train now extends to West Harbour, and the schedule is a couple minutes faster (due to lower ridership during the pandemic).

Specifically speaking of route 16/QEW Express, part of it stems as a holdover from the early days when GO was handed the service from Grey Coach. GO has been trying for many years to get rid of it, despite it's popularity.

During peak periods where former express services have now been eliminated, ridership has not recovered as well. There is a much bigger difference in attractiveness between the current service offerings and the pre-COVID offerings, particularly for long-distance trips. Whereas off-peak services are (nominally) faster than pre-COVID, peak services are slower due to the loss of express service.

Cause and effect? Ridership hasn't recovered as well because a lot of the jobs that are working downtown in the 9-to-5 office industry haven't returned to "normal" yet. If you look at the stats, the rate of work-from-home for those kinds of white-collar jobs is far higher than in most. Express services haven't come back to the same levels because of that, not the other way around.

Conversely, off-peak services - for which have not really had any express service options - have returned to almost "normal" ridership levels, according to some of the preliminary internal numbers at GO.

The relative importance of frequency versus travel time is highly dependent on the trip distance and particular station. If you're starting from Clarkson, then clearly 4tph local will be better for you than 3tph local. But if you're at Oakville or Port Credit, there would be 4 tph either way, it's just that you have a 1/4 chance of getting an express train.

There is a bit correlation, yes.....but it's not nearly as cut-and-dried as you think it is.

The TTC has used a weighting scale to determine the various effects on ridership caused by things like waiting at a stop, transfers, etc. And it's not a perfect science by any means - they've had to update it a couple of times over the years. But it does seem to do a reasonably accurate job of quantifying what people feel about those things. An old version of that scale can be seen on the last page of this report: https://ttc-cdn.azureedge.net/-/med...ards.pdf?rev=be660330001244f1ae3fd427796a29d4

15 minute headways are not short enough that it is convenient to randomly show up at the station. Doing so would result in an average wait of 7.5 minutes and a maximum wait of 15 minutes. People checking the schedule before heading to the station will commonly aim around 5 minutes before departure, so the threshold for "subway-like" behaviour nominally kicks in around 10 minute headways. What going from 30-minute headways to 15-minute headways does is increase the flexibility of people's scheduling. For example, if they have an appointment at a specific time, they could avoid getting there 15 minutes earlier than necessary. But if their exact arrival moment doesn't particularly matter (e.g. job with somewhat flexible start time, leisure trips, etc), then increasing the frequency has relatively little impact on their experience. Faster service, however, always benefits them regardless of the flexibility of their schedule.

I know the theory behind it. But the reality is that people were just walking up to stations that had the 15 minute service pre-COVID without much worrying about the schedule. Despite the concept of the threshold of 10 minute headways, a doubling of service/halving of headways to 15 minutes - and maybe coupled with their advertising campaigns - resulted in riders exhibiting that same behavior.

Dan

 

[Richard White]

Was just looking at a GO train schedule for Niagara Trains this weekend. I did not realize how bad the service was until I just looked at it.

Yeesh. I cannot believe they got rid of the late trains. Great way to strand people in the falls.

 

[reaperexpress]

Was just looking at a GO train schedule for Niagara Trains this weekend. I did not realize how bad the service was until I just looked at it.

Yeesh. I cannot believe they got rid of the late trains. Great way to strand people in the falls.

They are only stranded if they refuse to take a coach bus. Route 12 runs every hour to Burlington Station, and I'm guessing they also run unscheduled 12B express buses during busy periods.

That said, the service certainly is very unattractive on paper. If they want to just use trains to handle the ridership surges during the busiest periods (e.g. 08:51 leaving Toronto) that's fine, but then they actually need to handle that surge (i.e. move the 12:51 train earlier to 09:51), and they need to consistently run express buses throughout the rest of the day and show them in the timetable.

Currently the only express bus shown in the timetable is the Route 12E express from Niagara Falls to Union, departing at 23:20 and taking 2h05 (same as the train).

 

[Willybru21]

So, I had a discussion with a number of my buddies at Metrolinx last night, and I need to walk back my earlier contention.

Turns out that there are 49 trainsets in service each day right now. So yes, there is easily enough equipment.

Pre-COVID, there were 71 trainsets in service each day, including the 6 6-car trainsets. There would be no way to increase that number.

The issue stems from this - there are 91 locos in the fleet. They are the limiting number when it comes to how many trains can be run on any given day. There needs to be a higher spares ratio than in the transit world - 25% is seen as minimal - due to the various regulatory checks that are required by Transport Canada, such as the 92 day inspection. Coaches and cab cars also have their own regulatory inspection cycle, but they are not as stringent as that for the locos and so they can run a lower spares ratio.



Specifically speaking of route 16/QEW Express, part of it stems as a holdover from the early days when GO was handed the service from Grey Coach. GO has been trying for many years to get rid of it, despite it's popularity.



Cause and effect? Ridership hasn't recovered as well because a lot of the jobs that are working downtown in the 9-to-5 office industry haven't returned to "normal" yet. If you look at the stats, the rate of work-from-home for those kinds of white-collar jobs is far higher than in most. Express services haven't come back to the same levels because of that, not the other way around.

Conversely, off-peak services - for which have not really had any express service options - have returned to almost "normal" ridership levels, according to some of the preliminary internal numbers at GO.



There is a bit correlation, yes.....but it's not nearly as cut-and-dried as you think it is.

The TTC has used a weighting scale to determine the various effects on ridership caused by things like waiting at a stop, transfers, etc. And it's not a perfect science by any means - they've had to update it a couple of times over the years. But it does seem to do a reasonably accurate job of quantifying what people feel about those things. An old version of that scale can be seen on the last page of this report: https://ttc-cdn.azureedge.net/-/med...ards.pdf?rev=be660330001244f1ae3fd427796a29d4



I know the theory behind it. But the reality is that people were just walking up to stations that had the 15 minute service pre-COVID without much worrying about the schedule. Despite the concept of the threshold of 10 minute headways, a doubling of service/halving of headways to 15 minutes - and maybe coupled with their advertising campaigns - resulted in riders exhibiting that same behavior.

Dan

There may be 49 in service each day, but right now 73 consists are put together.

46 are 10 car trains
24 are 6 car trains
2 are 12 car trains
1 is a 4 car train.
632 cars are being used right now.

 

[beatle04]

There may be 49 in service each day, but right now 73 consists are put together.

46 are 10 car trains
24 are 6 car trains
2 are 12 car trains
1 is a 4 car train.
632 cars are being used right now.

Where's the 4 car train being used?