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AIUI, the US is sitting on hundreds of thousands of cluster munitions.


Sounds like a good candidate for Ukraine. Turkey agrees.

Interesting. One wonders if this may give pause to some nations who are currently supplying arms to Ukraine? I understand Ukraine's desperation, but launching banned ordnance from a donated weapon might bother the donor.
 
Interesting. One wonders if this may give pause to some nations who are currently supplying arms to Ukraine? I understand Ukraine's desperation, but launching banned ordnance from a donated weapon might bother the donor.
If knowing the issues with postwar cleanup and collateral damage, Ukraine still wants to launch cluster munitions into Ukrainian territory, who are we to tell them not to? It’s akin to some nation invading Canada, and the CAF using an otherwise prohibited weapon within Canada to oust or kill the invader. Do any of the international restrictions on cluster munitions include prohibition of use within one’s own borders? Let’s have a look.


One clause says "never under any circumstances to Use cluster munitions” so, that would I suppose cover domestic use, but I doubt any foreign power would complain if Canada used such weapons inside Canada. But anyway, neither Ukraine nor the US are signatories.

Ukraine has already been given weapons that can reach well beyond its borders, but Ukraine has been careful not to fire its new rocket artillery into Russia, for example. They’d do the same with cluster munitions, firing them solely within Ukraine borders. Now, if you’re a Russian soldier located within Ukraine, you’re fair game and had better go home.
 
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Large failure on behalf of the West to not produce tank deliveries to Ukraine today following their summit at Ramstein Air Base.

Others are free to jump in here but I get the sense that we are nearing another critical juncture in this war. The frontlines have been largely static for months, Ukraine is taking heavy losses in Donbass and future aid from the US is in question thanks to a Republican majority house. Burns met secretly with Zelensky last week to brief him on Russia's upcoming plans. Most of their mobilized troops have not yet been utilized, and while I do believe it is unlikely they will be highly effective by the time they're thrown into the fray, it still amounts to a lot of new forces which will undoubtedly create a challenge for Ukraine.

There has been a big step up in donations no doubt because all parties in the West want this war to end, but Iots of munitions and equipment stocks are starting to run low. I get the sense that large scale military aid past this summer is not guaranteed and in the West we have not switched into wartime economies meaning replenishing stuff will take quite some time. Germany's reluctance to make the decisive call to help end this war could ultimately prove perilous. My sense is at a government level there is a rising anxiety over the long term trajectory of this conflict that was not so much previously on the radar, especially as China also continues to be a big concern that requires a lot of resources.
 
Large failure on behalf of the West to not produce tank deliveries to Ukraine today following their summit at Ramstein Air Base.
My guess is Germany doesn't have more than perhaps a hundred Leopard 2 tanks in service, with the rest in longterm storage. Germany is embarrassed and thus delaying things.
 
My guess is Germany doesn't have more than perhaps a hundred Leopard 2 tanks in service, with the rest in longterm storage. Germany is embarrassed and thus delaying things.
There are hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks in other countries that are ready to donate them asap. I have no comment or insight as to the accuracy of this comment other than to say Germany does not have to donate a single tank themselves. They are refusing to allow others export weapons they manufactured currently and that is where my disappointment stems from. It is a terrible look for Germany on the global stage and as a leader.
 
There are hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks in other countries that are ready to donate them asap. I have no comment or insight as to the accuracy of this comment other than to say Germany does not have to donate a single tank themselves. They are refusing to allow others export weapons they manufactured currently and that is where my disappointment stems from. It is a terrible look for Germany on the global stage and as a leader.
The blame lies squarely with Scholz and his SPD party who live in a fantasy world of appeasing Russia. One wonders how much the Kremlin is bankrolling SPD members. Remember that Lambrecht was a staunch defender of Scholz and Germany’s resistance in sending military supplies to Ukraine. Lambrecht was hand picked by Scholz despite being unqualified for the position. Germany is grasping for excuses and wallowing about while giving Russia time to build up their military again.

I wonder how long until Poland says eff this and goes ahead with sending Leopards to Ukraine.

There are also questions in Germany about whether the recent political crisis within the defense ministry has left Scholz weakened. Scholz personally chose Lambrecht and defended her until the end, despite concerns she had failed to properly spend a reject influx of defense funds and let Germany’s ammunition stockpiles run low (in addition to her gaffes and waning standing among the military).
https://www.politico.eu/article/ger...ut-remains-reluctant-on-tanks-ukraine-russia/
 
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Economist today:

For months pressure has been building on Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, to sanction the transfer of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. Made by a German firm, the tanks could substantially boost its defences. More than 2,000 of them sit in the arsenals of 13 European armies. Germany’s Bundeswehr operates around 350. Because of end-user export controls, none can be sent to Ukraine without a nod from Berlin.

Just such a nod was widely expected on January 20th, when some 50 senior Western officials, including Lloyd Austin, the American defence secretary, convened in person or online at Ramstein, an American base in Germany. Their brief was to co-ordinate and expand military aid to Ukraine, where the fighting has reached a crucial juncture in advance of probable spring offensives. But the nod never came. Instead Boris Pistorius, a German defence minister appointed only three days earlier (pictured, with General Mark Milley, chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff), stepped out to explain that since there had been no consensus on the Leopards, no decision had been made.

The failure to hand over the German tanks at this stage may prove only a minor factor in the nearly year-old war. Mr Pistorius suggested a decision might come soon, in days or perhaps weeks, and that other countries could already begin training Ukrainian troops on Leopards. And friends of Ukraine did respond generously to its pleas for all kinds of other military gear, from anti-aircraft systems to American Bradley and Stryker armoured fighting vehicles. Germany itself pledged €1bn-worth ($1.1bn) of extra weapons, bringing its military aid so far to €3.3bn.

Yet even if the tank hold-up does not end up hurting Ukraine much, such foot-dragging does hurt its ally Germany badly in diplomatic terms. Despite being Ukraine’s second-biggest supporter after America, both financially and militarily, Germany has paid a heavy reputational price for repeatedly appearing reluctant to pitch in on a war raging only one country away. Again and again Mr Scholz’s government has protested that it cannot send some type of weapon, only to eventually cave in.

Stopping even other allies from sending Leopards seems inexcusable to many of Ukraine’s champions. Mick Ryan, a retired Australian officer, wondered on his blog whether any ”nation serious about its security in the 21st century will want to partner with the Germans”. Poland has already said it may send Leopards from its own stocks, without Germany’s approval. Social-media wits have coined a new verb, scholzing”, meaning to show good intentions but weasel out of doing anything about them. Mr Austin was at pains to describe Germany as a “good ally”. Asked whether it was doing enough to show leadership, he replied: “Yes, but we can all do more.”

Mr Scholz has attracted ire not only from abroad. German policy pundits have grown increasingly exasperated. Recent opinion polls show that not only about half of Germans, but a 51% majority of voters for Mr Scholz’s own Social Democratic Party (and even more followers of the Greens and Liberals in his coalition) favour sending Leopards to Ukraine.
 
Do it anyways, and if they make a noise about it, by all means tell them not to sell future armaments to the offending parties. They will end up being the loser.

AoD
 
Do it anyways, and if they make a noise about it, by all means tell them not to sell future armaments to the offending parties. They will end up being the loser.

AoD
forgiveness vs permission.

Going forward, there are all sorts of manufacturers around the free world who would be more than willing to fill any void created by countries no longer willing to buy Germany equipment.
 

Russia is claiming to have launched offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia oblast. This would be their first such offensive in something like 8 months now. Will probably give a good sense of whether Russia has any remaining capability to conduct offensive operations and a better sense of the trajectory of the war.
 
In an article from The Star, we learn that Germany 'won't stand in the way' of Poland giving Ukraine Leopard Tanks.


****

Also, decided to have a look-see on how the aid to Ukraine picture stands.

The data is current to Nov 20th, 2022:

1674427590896.png



The above is from: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/9/infographic-who-provides-the-most-aid-to-ukraine

Of note, among nation-states, Canada is the #4 donor to Ukraine worldwide, after the U.S. U.K and Germany.

Further though, when those same stats are adjusted to per capita contribution, Canada rises to #3, ahead of Germany.
 
From all the talk of not getting tanks to now getting Abrams and Bradleys. The last time those rolled up on Soviet era armour, they cut through them like a hot knife through butter. Most famously HR McMaster who went on to be Trump's National Security Advisor leading a company of 9 Abrams and 13 Bradleys taking out an Iraqi armoured battalion four times the size in 22 mins, with no losses, at the Battle of 73 Easting. I hope the Ukrainians have similar success.

 

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