From:
www.theglobeandmail.com/s...t/Ontario/
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A new province called Mantario?
JOHN IBBITSON
Has the time come to reverse the verdict of the Battle of Rat Portage? The most recent issue of Canadian Public Policy magazine contains an article by Livio Di Matteo and two other academics that explores the possibility of Northwestern Ontario leaving Ontario.
The question was supposedly settled in the 1880s. Back then, both Manitoba (supported by the federal government) and Ontario claimed the vast lands north and west of what is now Thunder Bay. Each government sent in its own officials and police, who promptly began arresting each other in the town of Rat Portage (wisely renamed Kenora). Fortunately, the "battle" never actually descended into violence, and the British were asked to adjudicate. They gave the land to Ontario, and the northwest has never been happy since.
With 60 per cent of Ontario's land, a Great Lakes port and forest and mineral wealth, Northwestern Ontario is, in theory, a valuable catch. But a mere 235,000 people live there; the region accounts for only 2 per cent of the provincial population. As many immigrants arrive in Ontario every two years as live in the entire northwest.
Ontario has always regarded its north as a colony, good for resource extraction and not much else. The people of the northwest (who refer to southern Ontario as "down east") rightly believe they have little influence at Queen's Park. There are repeated rumblings, and some odd character or other is always trying to get a secessionist movement going. Messrs. Di Matteo et al. decided to take a hard look at the political and economic case for change.
Their first scenario involves switching provinces. Northwestern Ontario could join Manitoba, creating a new province that the authors christen "Mantario." This would be good for Manitoba, which would gain a population boost (with an average income higher than the current Manitoba average), lumber and mineral resources, and a major port. Northwesterners, in exchange, would enjoy much greater representation in the Manitoba legislature (11 out of 68 seats) than they currently claim at Queen's Park (three out of 103), with the capital closer both in real terms and in outlook.
Economically, it would be a wash. Northwestern Ontario would lose the extensive subsidies provided by the Ontario government, but it would be joining a have-not province, which would lead to an increase in federal equalization payments -- largely paid for, of course, by those southern Ontario taxpayers.
Taxes are higher in Manitoba, but the province spends more on government services. This would appeal to the northwest, which relies heavily on subsidies. Politically and economically, the authors conclude, Northwestern Ontario would have as much to gain as it would to lose by becoming part of the Prairies.
The authors also contemplate the possibility of turning Northwestern Ontario into its own province. Such a province would be small, poor and utterly dependent on federal grants -- typical, in other words. The most practical scenario would see Queen's Park devolving partial authority to an elected regional council.
The biggest obstacle to reform might be simple apathy. "The demand for a new province does not enjoy support beyond the level of coffee-table discussion," the authors note. "This choice may be analogous to one between remaining in Ontario's attic, becoming Manitoba's basement or simply moving out into your own place. In the absence of any motivating regional ambition, the choice may simply be to remain in the attic."
Straw man raised, straw man knocked down. Except for one thing. Northern Ontario, the B.C. Interior, Manitoba outside Winnipeg, Quebec outside Montreal and Quebec City, and almost all of Atlantic Canada are on the outside, watching a modern, urban, multiethnic Canada recede ever further from their experience. Their populations dwindle, their influence dissipates, their legislatures increasingly ignore them.
In the coming decades, accommodating the hinterlands to the reality of urban Canada will test the bonds of the federation. Some day, Mantario may not sound so foolish after all.
