Ico said:
This is interesting - I would not have expected the billionaires row buildings in Manhattan to face losses in the $1b range, but I can't say I'm surprised. We all know half the units in those buildings are sitting empty, though someone does own them. The One could easily head in that direction. But another scenario could unfold in an attempt to turn profit or at least break even here -
  • cancel all the existing sales and return deposits (or perhaps just pull the remaining inventory off the market, since it's mostly units above the 50th storey that haven't sold) - this could also be a fun one for Tarion since there's a $200m+ charge registered on title as deposit insurance
  • re-demise all the units (or just re-demise units above the 50th storey to create an extra 6 - 8 units per floor, since there's only 4 units per floor beyond floor 49)
    • Below the 50th storey, it's 10 units per floor at roughly 80m2/unit. You can probably create another 2 units here - although that may impact your 2/3 bedroom counts, demising walls, etc
  • You can create an extra +/- 300 units for instance by just re-demising the units above the 49th storey
  • Sell the new units at $2,000+/sf... if possible in today's market
This is a long shot and it will piss off a lot of people, esp the ones who bought here. And these ppl could be pretty litigious. As well, I didn't do any cash flow analysis/proforma to determine whether this makes financial sense. But just throwing out what could happen or what I've seen happen in the GTA when builders cancel and revive projects
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This would not be enough.

The upper floors are selling nearly 3k psf or even higher going to smaller units would not help


They have 550k res sqft.

They need to sell a 4k psf to break even.
 
Collingwoodbuildinglover said:
I would just like to be clear in case I'm getting grouped into the category of troll as that was never. My intention was saying some of the thoughts that were coming to my head. Personally, I want to see this project completed as it's actually one of the nicest looking buildings coming to Toronto
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To be clear, that was not directed at you in any way, shape or form. You are not asserting without evidence that any of us don't know what we're talking about here. And doing so in bad faith, as far as I am aware.
 
Collingwoodbuildinglover said:
So the best suggestion I have to anyone who is looking at this like it is an anomaly is go on YouTube and watch any mega projects video the first thing they will always tell you is it ran about 50% over budget. Hell the four buildings that I have built ran over budget companies have bad habits of not factoring in winter heating and other fuel required as well as other add-ons that get put on
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This is construction, there is very little mercy. Companies that continue to go over budget end up going out of business.

But it's still a bit of a cowboy business, so when the work is plentiful, there is always another dreamer ready to risk their capital.
 
jibsta said:
This would not be enough.

The upper floors are selling nearly 3k psf or even higher going to smaller units would not help


They have 550k res sqft.

They need to sell a 4k psf to break even.
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If you're assuming final cost is $2.2B (which sounds about right), then you're forgetting that there's commercial/retail space as well, including a hotel. Although at this point I'm not sure how valuable that will all be......
 
To me, it seems they are working faster than normal. Lots and lots of activity going on today:

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I have often wondered if it is possible that the project manager was not scaling up on labor to meet timelines as being both the project manager and GC. There would be no fines linked between the timeline and work to be completed with the exception of the lenders having stipulations
 
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