The_Cat said:
Edmonton's early LRT didn't start out strong either. Also, were these ARC card boardings, or were these achieved through statistical modelling. An example here.
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Didn’t say methodology unfortunately.

One hope is that these are from ARC data and capital line numbers are from head count extrapolations of sorts and that a good chunk of discrepancies could be non paying, or non tapping customers.

But even still, say the real number is 12k, not 6k. There’s no way it’s anywhere close to 50% or projections. Which feels like a massive failure.

New rail, for billions, should also increase overall transit use, not just replace buses. So hopefully at the end of 2024 we have a sense of if overall net trips increased vs just trains replacing buses but ridership/use staying flat.

If we want to hit our 50% goal of non car travel for all trips, we likely need 25% of that to be transit, 3-4% biking, and 12% walking.

We’re around 9-11% transit right now if I remember correctly. So this line needs to boost us a few percent, and WVLRT another few too. If these two can’t get us close to 20%, then I don’t think the 50% goal will be reached. Capital south barely opens up much more ridership. Metro NW will be good, but likely only a few % bump too.
 
The_Cat said:
Growing up in the late 70s and early 80s, I remember seeing two-car trains on the tracks.
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Don't think we could have run much more than 2 cars at the time, only 14 cars to start.
Also it was much shorter than the tram line.
Can't add cars to the tram line as that will block off downtown intersections. Increasing speed might help a bit, until we have a 2 car train every block downtown.
The Western line will be great, southside s/b designed as a commuter line imho
 
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I think it can be difficult to convince people to change from cars to LRT, whether it’s convenience, multiple errands or other needs. I’m sure once people start complaining about $1.50 gas, this could change.
 
The Valley Line goes through single family home residential areas. It's the equivalent of building a road to a new subdivision.

The ridership will come as density increases around the stops, and of course once a connection is made to WEM. Right now VLSE goes from nowhere to barely somewhere. It doesn't even get you to Oliver without a transfer (yet). We're 3-5 years away.
 
The_Cat said:
^No. But an initial fleet of 11 cars made for small trains, probably at 10 minutes.at peak hours.
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Just because there was a small fleet and 2 car trains, that doesn't mean the line "didn't start out strong". And the stats were: 14 cars, 5 minute peaks. 3 cars added in 1979 for 17 total, but then those extra 3 were for the Bay/ Corona extension.
1979 ridership was 6,255,944 which is 17,139 daily. Obviously weekends and holidays would be less, weekdays more.
My source for the ridership also mentions this:
"So far, there has been little promotion, since the LRT service in the peak hours has standing room only. The city has yet to order more equipment to lengthen peak-hour trains to three cars each."
Souce: https://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1981/817/817-002.pdf

It certainly sounds like the LRT started off well enough for the size of the fleet it had.
 
I think many were optimistic that Davies park & ride would provide that intermediary interface to suburban riders while we wait for the corridor to densify.

I wish the city would make hard choices like have the 500X run to Davies instead of all the way downtown. Same with the 110X-150X, open up Blatchford Gate as a suburban connector. Why are we wasting bus driver resources that could be deployed elsewhere when we have two underutilized LRT lines?
 
dkazzed said:
I think many were optimistic that Davies park & ride would provide that intermediary interface to suburban riders while we wait for the corridor to densify.

I wish the city would make hard choices like have the 500X run to Davies instead of all the way downtown. Same with the 110X-150X, open up Blatchford Gate as a suburban connector. Why are we wasting bus driver resources that could be deployed elsewhere when we have two underutilized LRT lines?
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I certainly agree about the 500x. I really think it has taken on some of the 73's ridership.
The latest number is an improvement at 174,604 but the number I crunched for the 73 in March 2023 was 268,504. Surely the VLSE should be brining in at least that number of riders.
Re: counting riders. I have no idea how they do it on the VLSE, however, above the door on every car is a sensor. Obviously, that's there to ensure no one is getting caught in the door. I wouldn't be surprised though if they can count passengers with it. If they do, the the VLSE can produce far more accurate passengers counts than the Capital and Metro lines.

Having 500x users transfer at Davies would free up a decent amount of service hours while maximizing the investment in LRT.
 
I think the challenge with 500X is the Maple Ridge Trailer Park on 17 Street. It takes 33 minutes. The Valley Line LRT takes about 20 minutes to Davies Station. The next leg (506) takes 24 minutes from Davies Station to Meadows with a drive through residential neighbourhoods.. I'm thinking a route through Roper Road to 34 Street and south to Whitemud and 17 Street would be more direct.
 
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