The_Cat
Senior Member
I think that the Valley Line LRT use will be organic. The first riders are those who took transit route 73. As more people discover the benefits of the network (like the Metallica fans), ridership will grow.
- Thread starter Daveography
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supplanter
Active Member
If it’s that low I call BS. There’s no way.
Barnaby
Senior Member
I'm gonna have to agree that these numbers aren't right.
EdwardEdm
Active Member
Not a chance. If it it was 200k/ day, monthly ridership would be well north if 4 million riders per month.
I believe BASE's first post, quoted above, is correct based upon prior figures posted in this thread.
TAS
Senior Member
I think BASE is correct as well. If anyone wants to check out where Coun. Tang is told what VLSE ridership is at, it's this time period on the image below..
Actually the city transit person said ".04 percent" so she must have meant 4%? I'm sorry for not catching that.
Link to meeting is here.
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TAS
Senior Member
Reading news stories, there seems to be a lot of confusion. Coun. Rutherford was quoted in the story BASE linked to above as saying there were 100,000 riders per day on VLSE which is way off and not true.
I found that there were 223,000 'monthly' riders in April 2024 or about 7,300 per day. Ridership dropped in May - probably because post secondary schools are out. Currently, Valley Line Southeast represents around 13 per cent of total 'LRT ridership'.
So 4% of total ETS ridership seems right.
I found that there were 223,000 'monthly' riders in April 2024 or about 7,300 per day. Ridership dropped in May - probably because post secondary schools are out. Currently, Valley Line Southeast represents around 13 per cent of total 'LRT ridership'.
So 4% of total ETS ridership seems right.
thommyjo
Senior Member
Yeah. Your numbers here are accurate.
The numbers to watch is that daily use. Would love to see it passing 10k by end of this school year, but maybe that’s not realistic.
Remember that the city projected 30,000 daily users upon opening. Growing to over 40k by 2040. So that’s a lot of uncaptured potential they assumed would use the train who haven’t yet.
I think the west line opening will actually help the SE line a lot though. Norquest, Macewan; and even 124th will draw SE riders who currently might have a faster bus or drive.
Blizzard
New Member
I'm looking at the APC report right now and the numbers are about 50% higher than what you're saying.
We hit that in February and again, currently about 50% higher.
Yes, currently a lot of riders in the southeast head to Meadows for the 500X to get to Norquest and MacEwan. Hence the need for artics there.
Of course, everything I'm saying falls apart if we're talking about unique riders. I can only see the raw number of people getting on and off transit.
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Gus Haynes
Active Member
The Valley Line is just a stump right now. When this thing goes to WEM and Lewis Estates, it's really gonna do numbers, I'd bet.
TAS
Senior Member
Haha there are so many numbers flying around that don't seem to add up based on what ETS official is saying, what a city councillor is saying etc.
If you have the APC, it would be great if you could share link or screen shot.
@Blizzard is VLSE getting 4% of all ridership? And if so, if there were 5.3 million rides across ETS in May, that should mean 6,839 trips per day for VLSE. What do the May figures you have show?
trevorhayden
Active Member
Valley line will fail if 500x is not terminated at Davies Station or rerouted to end at U of A.
whattheheck
Active Member
And wasn't the VL supposed to spur a wave of TOD's?! Groundbreaking was in 2016; eight years ago. And hardly anything. And don't give me, 'but the pandemic!'
The city has grown by huge numbers, population-wise, and yet, developers don't see the incentive to build anything meaningful near a VL station. Why? Oh, I guess Bonnie Doon has upgraded its parking lot. lol
Hollyrood went from a concrete tower, to now a wood frame building going up, lol
Wasn't an 'urban' lrt supposed to be the holy grail?!
The city has grown by huge numbers, population-wise, and yet, developers don't see the incentive to build anything meaningful near a VL station. Why? Oh, I guess Bonnie Doon has upgraded its parking lot. lol
Hollyrood went from a concrete tower, to now a wood frame building going up, lol
Wasn't an 'urban' lrt supposed to be the holy grail?!
Blizzard
New Member
I will refrain from sharing any direct links or screenshots because I like my job. You'll just have to take the word of an internet stranger.
I don't know the source of the "4% of all ridership" number. I see 6.3 million rides in May from just bus APCs. But again this is just raw APC data, it doesn't factor for transfers, unique riders, etc.
That would be a political nightmare and a non-starter at this point. Suffice to say that Valley Line is not considered a failure in light of post-pandemic ridership trends and social failings beyond the control of transit that are being experienced across North America.
Kosy123
Senior Member
Yeah I genuinely don't get the talk of the Valley Line being a failure. Has it been off to a slow start? Sure, but as a daily commuter on it, it does get busy at peak hours and is immensely appreciated. TOD's while slower, have popped up, and doesn't count for the skinnies, garage suites and rowhomes that are popping up 5-10 min away from these stops and even along the route.
The only gripe I've had is that frequency should be upped when there's special events like Oilers games. Waiting for a train for 15 min after games isn't the best way to show people that this is effective.
A bit unfair to expect mass density in these areas this fast when Nanaimo and 29th Avenue in Vancouver have barely changed since these stations were put up lol
The only gripe I've had is that frequency should be upped when there's special events like Oilers games. Waiting for a train for 15 min after games isn't the best way to show people that this is effective.
A bit unfair to expect mass density in these areas this fast when Nanaimo and 29th Avenue in Vancouver have barely changed since these stations were put up lol
EdwardEdm
Active Member
Of course, not every bus has an APC.
Since you say that it is raw data, is that 6.3 million activations? Or is that 6.3 million riders, factoring in each rider is going to activate the APC twice per vehicle (therefore 12.6 million activations)?
Are false activations possible from the very common practice of passengers hanging out at the rear doors? It would be negligible, but there would also be activations everytime drivers enter and leave the bus.