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Jonny5 said:
I am guessing Carney isn't even going to call for a new session of Parliament until the end of the summer, and he will have the throne speech then, which means the first possible time for an opposition no-confidence vote is probably mid-September.
That being said, I doubt he will fall on that one. The likely first time it could happen will be on his first budget, which could be all the way in January 2026.
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You think there won't be any 2025 budget passed until 9 months into the year?

While technically feasible (Governal General's Warrants can suffiice to keep the government afloat (pay its bills) that would be pushing precedent to its outer limit.

I would imagine we'll see a quick recall, a speech from the throne, a budget, and once passed, we may recess til fall.
 
Something piqued my interest when looking at the latest on the close ridings...

There were reports of polling stations closing in the north (Nunavut) early because of staffing issues. In at least one case the polls closed at 230pm well before the 930pm time they are required by elections Canada...

And now we have Nunavut as one of the narrowly contested areas... From the cbc website:
Screenshot_20250429_110415.jpg


Some claims of poor weather where flights with staff couldnt make it on time...

Admittedly I'm not familiar if this is a regular occurrence in the north when it comes to elections... But I'm certain we could have avoided situations where people are just not able to vote...
 
evandyk said:
I think it's about housing prices. There was a huge blue shift across the GTA. In Davenport, the CPC went from 10% in 2021 to 23% in 2025. The NDP collapse allowed the Liberals to stave it off in many cases, but not all.
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Yep. We need a national housing strategy and housing starts of the likes we've not seen since the post-war years. The trouble is if government incentives flood the market with housing then the value of existing housing drops, putting many mortgage holders under water. How can we fix that?
 
Admiral Beez said:
Yep. We need a national housing strategy and housing starts of the likes we've not seen since the post-war years. The trouble is if government incentives flood the market with housing then the value of existing housing drops, putting many mortgage holders under water. How can we fix that?
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Even a drop of 20% only puts someone underwater if they bought for the first time after 2022-23 or so. And they should have plenty of horizon to recover.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Yep. We need a national housing strategy and housing starts of the likes we've not seen since the post-war years. The trouble is if government incentives flood the market with housing then the value of existing housing drops, putting many mortgage holders under water. How can we fix that?
Click to expand...

Government provided special permission to the banks to amortize mortgages that were underwater to periods longer than 30 years, that's one option. Not an ideal, but its there.

The banks have also done blanket appraisals on condos that are closing in which..............they assessed the appraised value for purposes of the mortgage at greater than @UrbanAffair would.

Again, there are problems with that approach.

But there are ways to finesse 'minor' problems on appraised value.

A typical 5-year mortgage holder would have paid down at least 1/6 of the value of their home, on top of a minimum 5% down.

That means they'd have at least 21% equity on their originally assessed value.

The majority, I would think, would have higher down payments, and many would be further along paying down their mortgages. So I don't see it as a make or break issue. Providing we're talking about 'forcing' prices down another ~10%.

If you start talking about a larger drop.....the challenge becomes correspondingly larger.
 
evandyk said:
Even a drop of 20% only puts someone underwater if they bought for the first time after 2022-23 or so. And they should have plenty of horizon to recover.
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If I saw a drop in my primary investment and retirement planning I'd be concerned. Myself I don't care as I'll never sell the house, but if it's policy to drive down the values of everyone's homes then we'd better increase CPP or encourage employers to offer proper pensions.
 
Towered said:
Pollievre is refusing to resign. There will likely be others in the party with something to say about that...
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Poilievre brought the CPC popular vote to its highest ever (over 41%), and is the fifth CPC leader (elected and interim) since Harper resigned in 2015. Until yesterday, the CPC had never cracked 40% of the popular vote, and only Harper exceeded 35% for the CPC in 2004-08 and 2011. Poilievre deserves kudos for achieving never before levels of popular support and engagement. If he can do it again at the next federal election the Carney Libs may yet fall to the CPC.

You can't keep changing the coach every time you lose a championship. My expectation is that Poilievre stays on, waits for (or coerces) a by-election and takes his seat in the Commons before the end of summer.
 
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Johnny Au said:
My parents forbade me from voting because my parents are very firm tough-on-crime CPC supporters who told me they would disown me if I vote for any party except the CPC, especially the “hug-a-thug” LPC. I intentionally left my voter information card at home, walked to the polling station, brought out my ID, and voted for Gasparro. I told my parents I would be out walking around a few blocks for exercise. My parents did not know that I voted for Gasparro as they saw my voter information card on the fridge.
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Once you are behind the privacy screen, no one knows who you vote for, and you are not obliged to reveal that to anyone, not even your parents. You are old enough to vote, so you are old enough to choose who you want to vote for.
 
Coolibop said:
Something piqued my interest when looking at the latest on the close ridings...

There were reports of polling stations closing in the north (Nunavut) early because of staffing issues. In at least one case the polls closed at 230pm well before the 930pm time they are required by elections Canada...

And now we have Nunavut as one of the narrowly contested areas... From the cbc website:
View attachment 647229

Some claims of poor weather where flights with staff couldnt make it on time...

Admittedly I'm not familiar if this is a regular occurrence in the north when it comes to elections... But I'm certain we could have avoided situations where people are just not able to vote...
Click to expand...
Interesting. In any election I have worked, you don't work a shift, you're there for the whole day, so the polls shouldn't be opening or closing early (14 1/2 hours for me yesterday) -- although weather concerns would be legit there
 
Admiral Beez said:
Poilievre brought the CPC popular vote to its highest ever (over 41%), and is the fifth CPC leader (elected and interim) since Harper resigned in 2015. Until yesterday, the CPC had never cracked 40% of the popular vote, and only Harper exceeded 35% for the CPC in 2004-08 and 2011. Poilievre deserves kudos for achieving never before levels of popular support and engagement. If he can do it again at the next federal election the Carney Libs may yet fall to the CPC.

You can't keep changing the coach every time you lose a championship. My expectation is that Poilievre stays on, waits for (or coerces) a by-election and takes his seat in the Commons before the end of summer.
Click to expand...

As was noted on The Writ podcast, a strategic error by the Conservatives was hitting Singh and the NDP so hard ("Sellout Singh") last year. In doing so, he helped the Liberals by making them more palatable to soft NDP supporters.

If the NDP increased their popular vote to their historical average in the mid-teens, 41% would have been enough for the Conservatives to win a plurality of seats.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Poilievre brought the CPC popular vote to its highest ever (over 41%), and is the fifth CPC leader (elected and interim) since Harper resigned in 2015. Until yesterday, the CPC had never cracked 40% of the popular vote, and only Harper exceeded 35% for the CPC in 2004-08 and 2011. Poilievre deserves kudos for achieving never before levels of popular support and engagement. If he can do it again at the next federal election the Carney Libs may yet fall to the CPC.

You can't keep changing the coach every time you lose a championship. My expectation is that Poilievre stays on, waits for (or coerces) a by-election and takes his seat in the Commons before the end of summer.
Click to expand...
While that may be a small scrap of silver lining the cons can take away from the election, PP led them from an unprecedented 25 point lead just weeks ago into an electoral loss, and to add insult to injury, even humiliatingly lost his own seat that he'd owned for over 20 years. No amount of sugar coating can escape that harsh reality. The truth is, if the CPC had had a less strident and smarmy leader who arrogantly assumed he'd cakewalk to victory via "hey, we're not Trudeau!", they'd have very likely won yesterday, probably even a majority. I think slowly the knives will start to come out for him. His un-electability cost them.
 
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