cdr108
Senior Member
also, in the TO core, additional student housing have been built since the double cohort years.
UofT has built several that i can recall ..... don't know about Ryerson
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also, in the TO core, additional student housing have been built since the double cohort years.
UofT has built several that i can recall ..... don't know about Ryerson
mig174
Active Member
can't wait for october numbers.
If the price does start to fall, I don't see how it will ever go back up with the population dynamic we have unless we have some serious inflation. All the boomers are retiring, people are having fewer children... you simply don't need as much housing as before.
If the price does start to fall, I don't see how it will ever go back up with the population dynamic we have unless we have some serious inflation. All the boomers are retiring, people are having fewer children... you simply don't need as much housing as before.
daveto
Active Member
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/mw2010/pdf/mw1010.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...et_news/news2010/pdf/nr_market_watch_1010.pdf
October numbers are out. Fairly uneventful. Sales down about 10% from the average of the past several years (not including black october 2008). Price increase of 3.7% from September is consistent with previous Sept-to-Oct seasonal price increases. The bulls will point to the price increase, and the bears will point to the sales drop.
Of note is the low level of active listings- the inventory of 18.3k is 20% lower than average. As a bear, I find this puzzling and wonder if it demonstrates that people can't afford to sell right now, whereas I'm guessing the bulls see it as evidence of a strong market.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...et_news/news2010/pdf/nr_market_watch_1010.pdf
October numbers are out. Fairly uneventful. Sales down about 10% from the average of the past several years (not including black october 2008). Price increase of 3.7% from September is consistent with previous Sept-to-Oct seasonal price increases. The bulls will point to the price increase, and the bears will point to the sales drop.
Of note is the low level of active listings- the inventory of 18.3k is 20% lower than average. As a bear, I find this puzzling and wonder if it demonstrates that people can't afford to sell right now, whereas I'm guessing the bulls see it as evidence of a strong market.
interested
Senior Member
I would think it rather represents that people are still uncertain so they are not prepared to move. Traditionally, one sells when there is a life style change or to move up in the younger years or to downsize in retirement. In uncertain times, people make the decision (unless forced to) to do nothing or by default make the decision to do nothing. So, in uncertain times, why would you list if you can manage where you are unless there has been a life change or there is a requirement to do something. If you are a little less sure about your job, you don't move up/down. Also, those people looking at the investment decision on their principal residence will look and conclude that moving makes others wealthier at your expense.
By this I mean: If you are moving up in an up market, you hope for appreciation of the higher valued home that will be greater in absolute dollars than your lower priced home (allowing for the fact that you may be ready to move up for family reasons and others). If the market is holding steady, then the equity you lose from R/E commissions , Land Transfer Tax, legal fees, moving costs are not offset.
If the market is dropping and you don't have to move, higher price homes go down in absolute dollars more than lower price oness, so downsizing at this time is harmful. Say you had a $500,000 home and it dropped 10%. You are looking at a $300000 condo and it dropped the same 10%. Therefore now vs. the $200,000 initial difference instead the difference is $180,000. Add to this all the above costs (say around $30-40000) and you go from your $500000 home to the $300000 home and pocket$140 to 150000 instead of the $180-200000 that you had hoped.
One rather postpones this decision to when the market is rising.
interested
Senior Member
Kenny
Active Member
Agreed (regarding it being uneventful).
The market shows all signs of being back to normal levels. People seem to be buying and selling here as if there's nothing wrong with the economy.
BrianPersaud
Active Member
Nearly 83,000 immigrants arrived in Toronto During 2009 - Citizen and Immigration Canada
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2009/permanent/11.asp
Toronto condo completions are about 15,000 units a year
No rush in permits seen because of Ford
interested
Senior Member
Finally some objective numbers. Thank you.
That said, the trend is distinctly dropping in Toronto the past few years. I note these are both temporary and permanent immigration numbers. I would think that only the permanent numbers are relevant as temporary immigrants (and I am not sure of what constitutes temporary) would be less likely to buy condos than permanent immigrants. I guess if someone is temporary and over 3 years, they may buy but if less likely would be renters I would think.
BrianPersaud
Active Member
People are having few children YES
But this is balanced by more:
- Single Person Households
- DINK households (Double Income No Kids)
- Single Parent households
Demand for housing is still strong in the GTA. Population still growing, lots of wealth. Interesting to see the job growth numbers. Employment has picked back up to pre-recession levels but the labour market increased
http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/lfss03e-eng.htm
interested
Senior Member
I wonder frankly if we will start trends the other way to larger families as it becomes less affordable for seniors to live on their own, Babyboomers who are "sandwiched" and are extended and an economy which while it may be producing more jobs, is producing jobs of a lower caliber on the financial scale in the services industries rather than higher paid manufacturing jobs. Where will all the money to support the real estate at current levels come from. Abroad and totally price out the locals. Not saying it can't happen, I just don't think one can rely on that source as it will go where politically and economically most stable and that may or may not be Toronto in the future.
The second statistical comment is also interesting. I heard in the news a couple of weeks ago that unemployment in Ontario was higher than the national average and I believe it said that Toronto was worse than the national average, yet these stats suggest that compared to Sept of last year jobs have increased.
Can you help explain this discrepency.
BrianPersaud
Active Member
First point: Old people are not poor, they have a tremendous amount of equity in their homes. In fact, most Canadians over 45 have equity of over 75%. This is why seniors stay in their homes, only after 75 do you see home ownership rates drop.
Baby boomers are wealthy: Those that own their own home earn over a $150k a year in household income and again have large equity positions (this is why the move up market is doing so well. How else can you explain that Rosedale and Foresthill are still in Sellers markets?). (check my posts a while back for the statistical proof)
Second comment: Toronto Employment has gone up 4.1% nationally 2.1%
However, Labour force in Toronto Increased 3.6% vs 1.7% nationally
so while more jobs were created...more people were looking to offset keeping the unemployment rate high. Look an employment numbers
interested
Senior Member
Point 1:
I believe you have misquoted me: I said it becomes less affordable for seniors to live on their own. THere is a definate schism between have and have nots. You are talking about a select part of the population. As seniors live longer and longer, there is concern they will outlive their money. Same issue for the baby boomers.
Yes, I understand the baby boomers are the "richest generation" and there will be a "huge transfer of wealth" but the reality is that many boomers have not saved anywhere near enough for their retirement. I would suggest that Foresthill and Rosedale is hardly a cross section of the greater economy nor even the City of Toronto itself. You have taken as your base point the wealthiest communities in Toronto and I believe this results in distortion of the conclusions.
There is an interesting article today in the NY times about how the wealthy have flourished in the US with the downturn and before and how the middle class is becoming more and more poor. However, the wealthy are perhaps 5-10% of the population depending on how you wish to define it and to suggest that this 5-10% is the rule rather than the exception I think is a far stretch.
The trouble for alot of elderly is even though they are "wealthier" they are house poor. They have pensions if they are lucky that they received 10-20 years ago that have not kept up with inflation. They did not get salaries anywhere near the figure of $150,000/year and therefore their pensions are far less. What about all those elderly "income refugees" without pensions who saved even a million dollars and are looking at 4% returns and are scared to be in the stock market because the million was 1.5 million 2 years ago. They may have a million or more $ home but don't have the income to support the taxes or the upkeep.
Again I am not saying everyone but your extrapolation I don't believe is accurate for even the majority.
As for the second point: Thank you for your insight. This makes some sense but surely you would agree if you concur that the quality of jobs out there is lower, this does not bode well for continued price increases.
EXgeMMy
Active Member
urbandreamer
recession proof
I thought I read somewhere that around 75% of seniors are broke? How the average Canadian upon retiring has only $15k or so in savings?
I think BP is talking about condo investors--wealthy folk. They only rep a tiny per cent of the pop, and I think he's starting to wonder if every condo investor is tapped out and waiting for price corrections back to reality?
Judging by the new immigrants I'm meeting, their typical goal is a)get a job b)work their asses off and save for a downpayment c)they are looking to buy a townhouse or detached in the 'burbs or outer 416 with their wife, often from back home) d)they want kids to be born in Canada as it makes it easier for their (grand)parent's to immigrate... e)they want space and f)they want to be part of their (name ethnic/religious background here) community.
Condos are bought by investors, not your average new Canadian. So of those 83,000 immigrants, maybe only 1000 buy condos within 5 years, 10,000 buy homes and the rest either rent or being kids of immigrants, obviously don't buy homes...
I think BP is talking about condo investors--wealthy folk. They only rep a tiny per cent of the pop, and I think he's starting to wonder if every condo investor is tapped out and waiting for price corrections back to reality?
Judging by the new immigrants I'm meeting, their typical goal is a)get a job b)work their asses off and save for a downpayment c)they are looking to buy a townhouse or detached in the 'burbs or outer 416 with their wife, often from back home) d)they want kids to be born in Canada as it makes it easier for their (grand)parent's to immigrate... e)they want space and f)they want to be part of their (name ethnic/religious background here) community.
Condos are bought by investors, not your average new Canadian. So of those 83,000 immigrants, maybe only 1000 buy condos within 5 years, 10,000 buy homes and the rest either rent or being kids of immigrants, obviously don't buy homes...
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cdr108
Senior Member
the full report:
For a more upscale home, Canadian boomers plan to downsize
TD Canada Trust Boomer Buyers Report shows 56% still have a mortgage
TORONTO, Ontario, October 28, 2010 — For their next move, Canadian boomers are looking to downsize to smaller homes. According to the TD Canada Trust Boomer Buyers Report, four-in-five Canadian boomers say their next move will be to a smaller home, either to save money (46%) or to enjoy more luxurious features (34%).
"Many boomers find that their needs and priorities have changed since they moved into their current home. If you find you have more room than you need, consider 'right-sizing,'" says Farhaneh Haque, Regional Sales Manager, Mobile Mortgage Specialists, TD Canada Trust. "Moving to a smaller home can allow you to free up assets to put towards your retirement savings or enjoy in other ways."
Retiring with a mortgage?
Three-quarters of boomers say it is important that they pay off their mortgage before they retire, but less than half (44%) have paid off their entire mortgage. Of those boomers with a mortgage, one-third have paid off more than 60%, but one-quarter have a long way to go, having paid off less than 25% of their mortgage.
Haque offers this advice for boomers working to pay off their mortgage: "Talk to an expert about your home financing - you could pay off your mortgage faster with a different payment schedule, such as increasing your mortgage payment frequency from monthly to biweekly."
Boomers prefer detached homes:
For their next home, the majority of boomers (61%) plan to purchase a detached house. Although condos come in as second choice at 24%, more than half say they are at least considering a condo because they involve less maintenance (84%) and offer better security (54%) and amenities such as a gym or pool (47%). The top reasons that most boomers prefer houses over condos are that they prefer to have a backyard and garden (61%) and don't want to pay condo fees (57%).
However, some boomers say they will stay put. Forty-nine per cent will not move, either because they want to avoid the hassle of moving (61%), because their house is already the right size for them (43%) or they like having extra rooms for guests to visit (28%).
Boomers heading South:
Nine per cent of boomers currently own a vacation property and a further 12% plan to buy one for their retirement.
More than a third of boomers are considering buying a property south of the border. One quarter say opportunities created by the depressed real estate market have sparked their interest, while another 12% were already considering real estate opportunities in the United States. The most important criteria for buying a vacation property include location (99%), price (98%), low maintenance (95%), and the ability to have friends/family visit (92%).
"It is essential to talk with a qualified mortgage advisor if you are considering a property purchase in a different country," says Haque. "While there can certainly be opportunities, it is important to consider lending rules and taxes. An expert can help walk you through the paperwork and decide whether a property in another country really is an affordable option."
About the TD Canada Trust Boomer Buyers Report
Results for the TD Canada Trust Boomer Buyers Report were collected through a custom online survey conducted by Environics Research Group. A total of 1,000 completed surveys were collected between Sept. 30-Oct. 9, 2010. All participants were screened to have been born between 1946-1964 ("Baby Boomers"). This is the third report in a series on the life stages of Canadian home buyers. It follows the first time home buyers report and the repeat home buyers report.
News source: TD Bank Financial Group