December 23, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Toronto mayor Olivia Chow leading in a potential re-match with former Toronto mayor John Tory, 39% to 35%. Brad Bradford, the first candidate to declare their...
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Chow leads Tory in latest poll — but Bradford is gaining momentum
Mayor Olivia Chow is retaining support in key areas of the city that propelled her to victory in 2023
Mayor Olivia Chow would eke out a close victory over former mayor John Tory if an election were held today, according to a new poll from Liaison Strategies.
Chow has the support of 39 per cent of the survey’s respondents, compared to Tory’s 35 per cent. Both are down slightly from Liaison’s last poll in October.
“Olivia Chow has some resilience. Her approval rating is still in positive territory,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. The poll shows 53 per cent of respondents approve of her job as mayor, while 40 per cent disapprove. Her approval numbers have hovered within the low to mid-50s for all of 2025, while her disapprovals have been in the low to mid-40s. Liaison’s interactive voice response telephone poll was in the field from Dec. 19 to Dec. 21, 2025. It surveyed 1,000 voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
With Tory and Chow locked into fairly static positions — both had identical numbers in Liason’s July poll — the “only real movement” across the months of polling has been Coun. Brad Bradford’s (Beaches-East York) “ascension,” Valentin said.
The July poll showed Bradford far behind at just eight per cent. But since then, Bradford’s support has steadily increased to 12 per cent in October and 16 per cent in December.
“We've seen growth from Brad Bradford,” Valentin said, crediting the two-term councillor with an effective early campaign strategy that has raised his profile.
In October, Bradford announced he would run for mayor in the October 2026 municipal election, making him the first candidate to throw his hat in the ring. He has positioned himself as Chow’s most vocal opponent on Toronto city council, criticizing the mayor on everything from taxes to transit.
Bradford has used the last two city council meetings to put forward motions on encampment clearing and TTC refunds that form part of his pitch to voters.
“The big barrier for him has been name recognition. So maybe some of these actions are helping,” Valentin said.
“He's announced he's running, and now the media is paying more attention,” Valentin said. “The fact that [Chow] and Tory haven’t announced whether or not they’re running means he’s got this big lane all to himself.”
The July poll showed Bradford far behind at just eight per cent. But since then, Bradford’s support has steadily increased to 12 per cent in October and 16 per cent in Decem've seen growth from Brad Bradford,” Valentin said, crediting the councillor with an effective early campaign strategy. In October, Bradford announced he would run for mayor in the October 2026 municipal election, making him the first candidate to throw his hat in the ring. He has positioned himself as Chow’s most vocal opponent on Toronto city council, criticizing the mayor on everything from taxes to transit.
Bradford has used the last two city council meetings to put forward motions on encampment clearing and TTC refunds that form part of his pitch to voters.
“The big barrier for him has been name recognition. So maybe some of these actions are helping,” Valentin said.
“He's announced he's running, and now the media is paying more attention,” Valentin said. “The fact that [Chow] and Tory haven’t announced whether or not they’re running means he’s got this big lane all to himself.”
In a recent interview with TorontoToday, Chow said she’s focused on getting next year’s budget passed and hasn’t decided when she plans to make up her mind on a potential reelection bid. In the summer, Tory told TorontoToday he hasn’t ruled out a return. One of his former top aides has polled Torontonians on whether Tory should run for a fourth term.
But while the two top candidates sit in waiting, Bradford has spent the last months of the year attending numerous community events to build support.
“He's out there doing that silent work of campaigning. Big rooms, small rooms, little events, big events, and it all adds up,” Valentin said.
Chow’s support is still concentrated in the areas that propelled her to victory — mainly downtown Toronto and Scarborough — in the 2023 mayoral byelection.
“If she's able to hang on to Scarborough and downtown, it becomes really difficult to dislodge her,” Valentin said, while noting that sub-samples in a municipal poll have higher margins of error.
Tory’s support base is concentrated in Etobicoke, so he has to figure out how to expand his appeal across wider swaths of the city. By the way, there is more interesting and useful information
here, although it is not entirely relevant to the topic.
Bradford, on the other hand, has a relatively even distribution. But that can be a blessing or a curse, Valentin said.
“You're not going to have a million volunteers, so it would actually be better if your support was concentrated in a certain neighbourhood,” Valentin said. “Because then you can create a campaign to get those people out to vote. If your voters are spread out evenly, it becomes a little harder.”
