[roger1818]

When a third of passengers are Ottawa and Montreal, it's debatable how many of those other flights could be profitable without transfer passengers.

And those flights are all on 78 seater Q400s anyway. So it's not like a ton of passengers that can't be accommodated simply by up gauging out of Pearson to those same destinations or swapping some YOW and YUL slots out of YYZ for new destinations. Lots of options in a post HSR world.

So are you are saying that Toronto is too small and undesirable a destination to fill "78 seater Q400s" with with visitors or residents without help from Ottawa and Montreal (despite those cities also having flights to most of those destinations)? I am not saying that YYZ couldn't handle the additional passengers with up gauging flights to those other destinations, just that YTZ could still be profitable post HSR by expanding flights to other destinations. Besides, Toronto will likely be even bigger by the time Alto is operational.

But also the airport exists to benefit the city. Not the other way around. And it's really debatable whether the best value of that land is an airport in an era when we have HSR and much better connectivity to Pearson itself in the GTA.

I guess it depends what PortsToronto believes is best in its best interest given that it is mandated to be financially self-sufficient and receives no federal, provincial or municipal funding. If the airport continues to be profitable, it would be a tough sell to demolish it for something else.

 

[kEiThZ]

So are you are saying that Toronto is too small and undesirable a destination to fill "78 seater Q400s" with with visitors or residents without help from Ottawa and Montreal (despite those cities also having flights to most of those destinations)? I am not saying that YYZ couldn't handle the additional passengers with up gauging flights to those other destinations, just that YTZ could still be profitable post HSR by expanding flights to other destinations. Besides, Toronto will likely be even bigger by the time Alto is operational.

Margins are thin on flights. Especially on short haul from an expensive airport like YTZ on a Q400. So yes, if they lose say 20 transfer passengers it may kill the net profitability on a flight. Even with the majority of pax being from Toronto.

I guess it depends what PortsToronto believes is best in its best interest given that it is mandated to be financially self-sufficient and receives no federal, provincial or municipal funding. If the airport continues to be profitable, it would be a tough sell to demolish it for something else.

YTZ moves 5-8k passengers per day.

YYZ moves 120-130k passengers per day.

Take away a good chunk of YTZ's most important business and there's even less value to the place. Go on the BB Airport thread. I've been a staunch defender of the airport. But after HSR, I think it's time for the city to get more out of that space. Paying for itself as an airport is irrelevant to the city's well-being. Post-HSR it'll be time for discussions on how that space can be developed to accomodate the city's waterfront ambitions.

 

[micheal_can]

Margins are thin on flights. Especially on short haul from an expensive airport like YTZ on a Q400. So yes, if they lose say 20 transfer passengers it may kill the net profitability on a flight. Even with the majority of pax being from Toronto.



YTZ moves 5-8k passengers per day.

YYZ moves 120-130k passengers per day.

Take away a good chunk of YTZ's most important business and there's even less value to the place. Go on the BB Airport thread. I've been a staunch defender of the airport. But after HSR, I think it's time for the city to get more out of that space. Paying for itself as an airport is irrelevant to the city's well-being. Post-HSR it'll be time for discussions on how that space can be developed to accomodate the city's waterfront ambitions.

So, condos?

 

[roger1818]

Margins are thin on flights. Especially on short haul from an expensive airport like YTZ on a Q400. So yes, if they lose say 20 transfer passengers it may kill the net profitability on a flight. Even with the majority of pax being from Toronto.

Do you mean 20 transfer passengers per day or per flight?

• If per flight, that is 1/4 of each plane. Given that YUL and YOW represent less than 1/4 of the flights, that would mean 100% of the passengers on the flights from YUL and YOW are transfering (not likely).
• If per day, that represents 1 passenger per 3 flights, a miniscule loss, and easily made up in other areas.

YTZ moves 5-8k passengers per day.

YYZ moves 120-130k passengers per day.

You are comparing a small regional airport to Canada's busiest airport and hub to our largest airline. Hardly an apples to apples comparison. As a comparison, YXX moved about 3.5k passengers per day in 2023 and it is very successful. Granted it is mostly WS 737s.

Take away a good chunk of YTZ's most important business and there's even less value to the place. Go on the BB Airport thread. I've been a staunch defender of the airport. But after HSR, I think it's time for the city to get more out of that space. Paying for itself as an airport is irrelevant to the city's well-being. Post-HSR it'll be time for discussions on how that space can be developed to accomodate the city's waterfront ambitions.

You keep talking about the city as if it has any authority to make changes. They only own about 20% of the airport. The majority owner is PortsToronto, which is a federal crown corporation. Unless it becomes a campaign issue in a federal election, I don't see much in the way of openness to discussions. Just look at how willing the NCC is to do what Ottawa wants. I don't see Toronto having any more luck.

The real question is will Porter continue to operate flights out of YTZ after Alto starts operating out of Toronto? If they pull out, the airport is doomed, but as long as they see value in operating flights out of it, and can pay their rent to PortsToronto I don't see anything changing, Another factor could be the location of the downtown station. If it isn't at or near Union Station, flying to YTZ could still be competitive for some.

I don't see it closing just because some city councillors start complaining to the PM. Time will tell what happens to it though.

 

[kEiThZ]

Do you mean 20 transfer passengers per day or per flight?

20 per flight. Obviously some destinations will get more transfers and some less. Regardless. It's not just the YTZ-YOW/YUL traffic that goes. I would add that is actually good for YOW and YUL and should boost a bit more direct demand.

You are comparing a small regional airport to Canada's busiest airport and hub to our largest airline. Hardly an apples to apples comparison. As a comparison, YXX moved about 3.5k passengers per day in 2023 and it is very successful. Granted it is mostly WS 737s.

I'm not sure why a fair comparison needs to be made. It's an airport serving the same catchment. It's quite relevant if that's in the city's best interest.

You keep talking about the city as if it has any authority to make changes. They only own about 20% of the airport. The majority owner is PortsToronto, which is a federal crown corporation. Unless it becomes a campaign issue in a federal election, I don't see much in the way of openness to discussions. Just look at how willing the NCC is to do what Ottawa wants. I don't see Toronto having any more luck.

The real question is will Porter continue to operate flights out of YTZ after Alto starts operating out of Toronto? If they pull out, the airport is doomed, but as long as they see value in operating flights out of it, and can pay their rent to PortsToronto I don't see anything changing, Another factor could be the location of the downtown station. If it isn't at or near Union Station, flying to YTZ could still be competitive for some.

I don't see it closing just because some city councillors start complaining to the PM. Time will tell what happens to it though.

Yes. There's always politics. But what has seen support for the airport all these years has been the distinct utility of it to Toronto residents outweighing the cost. That will change with HSR. And so will the politics.

 

[kEiThZ]

So, condos?

Hopefully a lot more.

 

[micheal_can]

Hopefully a lot more.

Hopefully not on that island.
No roads to it.
No transit to it.

Why would that be a good thing?

 

[crs1026]

I guess it depends what PortsToronto believes is best in its best interest given that it is mandated to be financially self-sufficient and receives no federal, provincial or municipal funding. If the airport continues to be profitable, it would be a tough sell to demolish it for something else.

Lol just wait until Dofo is ready to fulfil his likely intention to move to federal politics. There will be a casino or a theme park on that land in no time - with condo towers on three sides.

- Paul

PS - to be less flippant, I would give more weight to the convenience and utility of a downtown air terminal than to raw passenger numbers. Unless airlines are willing to offer a price differential that incents flying out of Pearson, I would predict that customer demand for the island terminal will argue for its retention and maybe even justify increments to fares…. Even if raw numbers suggest that YYZ can handle the load with larger planes.

 

[kEiThZ]

Hopefully not on that island.
No roads to it.
No transit to it.

Why would that be a good thing?

I've taken transit to the Island. Just take the streetcar and walk across the tunnel. And there's literally a car ferry that crosses the gap. And more infrastructure can be built if necessary. This is another one of those takes that comes from someone living in the middle of nowhere thinking they understand the city.

Lol just wait until Dofo is ready to fulfil his likely intention to move to federal politics. There will be a casino or a theme park on that land in no time - with condo towers on three sides.

- Paul

Or we'll get another giant spa. Who knows. It's a great spot to build Ontario Place 2.0.

PS - to be less flippant, I would give more weight to the convenience and utility of a downtown air terminal than to raw passenger numbers. Unless airlines are willing to offer a price differential that incents flying out of Pearson, I would predict that customer demand for the island terminal will argue for its retention and maybe even justify increments to fares…. Even if raw numbers suggest that YYZ can handle the load with larger planes.

YTZ flights don't even get much (if any) of a premium over YYZ today. HSR will crush whatever premium they do have to Ottawa and Montreal.

Arguing for its utility to the elites is both a stretch and not an argument that will help its survival. Either way, we can enjoy this debate post 2040.

 

[micheal_can]

I've taken transit to the Island. Just take the streetcar and walk across the tunnel. And there's literally a car ferry that crosses the gap. And more infrastructure can be built if necessary. This is another one of those takes that comes from someone living in the middle of nowhere thinking they understand the city.

I know more infrastructure could be built. The question is whether it should be built?

What other uses could that area be that would benefit the city? Condos, like what we see near it seem sad.

 

[crs1026]

YTZ flights don't even get much (if any) of a premium over YYZ today. HSR will crush whatever premium they do have to Ottawa and Montreal.

Quite true, but I give the airlines credit for understanding the other shorter distance markets that will exist and grow to places where Alto won’t go. Enough to compete with YYZ. And limos or uber to YYZ add a cost that can he undercut rven with a fare higher than YYZ. Depends on where luggage and similar revenue extraction goes.

Arguing for its utility to the elites is both a stretch and not an argument that will help its survival. Either way, we can enjoy this debate post 2040.

Hey, no need to play the elitism card. Have you noticed how many residential condo towers there are within sight of YTZ? No elites living there… sure the downtown business market may be arguably in reach, but their time is money. Sending the elites to Pearson and wasting their time is hardly a victory for the working class.

- Paul

 

[kEiThZ]

Hey, no need to play the elitism card. Have you noticed how many residential condo towers there are within sight of YTZ? No elites living there… sure the downtown business market may be arguably in reach, but their time is money. Sending the elites to Pearson and wasting their time is hardly a victory for the working class.

I meant depriving us poors of public space. Also those same elites go to Pearson for most of their flights outside a 2 hr flying range. I imagine a better (electrified) UPE will beat any limo or Uber in travel time most hours of the day. And probably pretty close going to YTZ.

 

[kEiThZ]

Quite true, but I give the airlines credit for understanding the other shorter distance markets that will exist and grow to places where Alto won’t go. Enough to compete with YYZ. And limos or uber to YYZ add a cost that can he undercut rven with a fare higher than YYZ. Depends on where luggage and similar revenue extraction goes.

I question how effective this competition is. It's certainly not enough business to get them to repurpose slots and airframes away from Ottawa and Montreal markets. The supposed convenience doesn't really have people paying that much more.

 

[roger1818]

The idea of converting YTZ into a few hundred luxury condos (this is prime real estate, it won’t be affordable housing) is very short sighted. Once you build over transportation infrastructure, it is gone forever. Besides, from what I’ve been told (I’m not an expert) Toronto has too many luxury condos and not enough family homes.

I find it confusing that in one breath kEiThZ is suggesting that Alto have a station at YPQ because Toronto will need another airport and then in another breath suggesting that YTZ be demolished because Toronto is too small to support 2 airports once Alto comes to Toronto.

All I’m saying is before making any big, irreversible decisions, let’s see what happens. I wouldn’t count Porter out. They may very well see this as an opportunity to provide more service to other markets. Only time will tell.

 

[micheal_can]

The idea of converting YTZ into a few hundred luxury condos (this is prime real estate, it won’t be affordable housing) is very short sighted. Once you build over transportation infrastructure, it is gone forever. Besides, from what I’ve been told (I’m not an expert) Toronto has too many luxury condos and not enough family homes.

Maybe it becomes parkland. Really, at this point, it could just stay a GA airport and that would be fine.

I find it confusing that in one breath kEiThZ is suggesting that Alto have a station at YPQ because Toronto will need another airport and then in another breath suggesting that YTZ be demolished because Toronto is too small to support 2 airports once Alto comes to Toronto.

All I’m saying is before making any big, irreversible decisions, let’s see what happens. I wouldn’t count Porter out. They may very well see this as an opportunity to provide more service to other markets. Only time will tell.

When ALTO west eventually is built, airports like YXU, YKF and YHM are more likely going to get some sort of connector to build them up. The majority of population is west of Toronto, not east.