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InfrastructureEnthusiast said:
That was my gut take too, they couldn't afford to go without AB oil until VZ increased production, but now I'm not sure that the case..

The US has been a net exporter of oil for a few years now, with the surplus being a bit over half of what they get from Canada.

I'm not an industry expert on this, but seems like it'd be easier for the US to import 4mbpd from someone else than it'd be for Canada to sell the same to someone else, without more coastal pipes in place.

My references, such as they are:
Click to expand...
You are correct, the US does produce enough oil for themselves, but the two key factors would be they that don't have enough refinery capacity to refine their type of crude, and the other factor being it would cost Americans more as they wouldn't get the discount they are getting from us. The biggest issue would be the refining capacity for light crude, because currently much of their refining capacity is for heavy crude. They could get the heavy crude from Venezuela, but it would be time and a lot of money to get Venezuela up to a point of producing ~5 Million barrels a day (one million barrels for them, and 4 million barrels for the US).

The US could get around using us, but it would take time and money, and ultimately be more expensive. Just like we could eventually get around selling to the US, but it would take time and money as well.
 
Surrealplaces said:
it would cost Americans more as they wouldn't get the discount they are getting from us.
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This is a bit of a misnomer - the discount exists in Alberta but doesn’t exist elsewhere in the same way. When enough oil can ship to where consumers want it, the local price is set according to delivery costs market dynamics. The refiner at the gulf coast isn’t ‘saving’ money. Nor is refiner in the Midwest. Those with pipeline capacity and product can attempt to arbitrage between markets to make money but when there is enough capacity those prices will always reconverge unless monopoly power is being exercised.

a cool chart by our favourite energy economist Andrew Leach, breaking out various components of the valuation.
1769375709946.png

They could get the heavy crude from Venezuela
Click to expand...
Apparently what they’re producing now has a specific gravity even lower than WCS/Maya (22) at around 12.

They’d have to rebuild their partial upgrading capacity to even somewhat compete again beyond the refurb possibility of 750k-1mm barrels a day.

Who will make that bet?
 
darwink said:
They’d have to rebuild their partial upgrading capacity to even somewhat compete again beyond the refurb possibility of 750k-1mm barrels a day.

Who will make that bet?
Click to expand...

It would be extremely funny if some of the AB oil industry formed a US shell (heh) corporation to use their heavy oil expertise to bid on the repair and upgrade work.

Even if AB oil gets cut off, AB can still get a win

trtcttc said:
And isn’t one of the reasons heavy crude is good is that it can also make a lot of chemicals and petroleum products?
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You mean things like "energetic materials" and rocket fuel for Canada's ICBM program climate research satellites?

I like where you're going with this... :cool:
 
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InfrastructureEnthusiast said:
You mean things like "energetic materials" and rocket fuel for Canada's ICBM program climate research satellites?
Click to expand...
Canada is finally going for sovereign launch. It is much less expensive to do these days, though still more expensive than just contracting others.

Lots of Nova Scotia is at or south of Baikonur (the Russian heavy lift spaceport), a perfectly adequate if not optimal launch latitude.
 
darwink said:
Canada is finally going for sovereign launch. It is much less expensive to do these days, though still more expensive than just contracting others.

Lots of Nova Scotia is at or south of Baikonur (the Russian heavy lift spaceport), a perfectly adequate if not optimal launch latitude.
Click to expand...
And there are multiple government owned airfields and air force bases. The Carney Space Centre has a nice ring to it, now that's a legacy.
 
Mountain Man said:
What is it that has beef prices so high? I can't afford to make steaks anymore, and I make good money!

I remember the drought a couple years ago had feed prices skyrocketing that affected it, but it has to be deeper than that.
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Food is a hard asset with real utility. It's value in fiat currency rises as that currency is debased by central banks. This apply to all food. The real cause of the affordability crisis is the need for central banks to finance enormous government deficits. Beef prices are also available to cyclically higher due to drought which caused producers to reduce herds.
 
DougB said:
Synapse chooses Alberta town for Canada's largest data centre - Rocky Mountain News https://share.google/TDGQwTZv8u9363i2N
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Pretty cool. Alas, the company seems to be a paper initiative. One employee, the CEO, on LinkedIn. Merchant data centres, we should think of them like merchant upgraders from 20 years ago. They need to secure both suppliers and customers, and without them they'll sit as paper projects forever.

Some will move forward, and sign a 100 MW tenant, or be bought whole. But colour me skeptical that even 1/10th of the proposed will ever pour concrete.
 
Time will tell with the data centres. Alberta is a place that makes sense to do them, but as mention by Darwink, these data centres still need customers. If we ever get to a point where NA is building hundreds of them, Alberta will get its share.
 
Surrealplaces said:
Time will tell with the data centres. Alberta is a place that makes sense to do them, but as mention by Darwink, these data centres still need customers. If we ever get to a point where NA is building hundreds of them, Alberta will get its share.
Click to expand...
This will help
betakit.com

Feds call for proposals to build large-scale data centres in Canada | BetaKit

The federal government wants Canadian companies to submit proposals to build sovereign, AI data centres with capacity exceeding 100MW.
betakit.com betakit.com
 
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