[DougB]

Lots of factors will influence a 26 election call, the most important being:
-if the separation petition fails, likelihood goes up
-if the Feds do something meaningful either way on the MOU, likelihood goes up. If the Feds back away from a pipeline or move ahead with a pipeline, Smith is well positioned. If it simply flounders, then less so
-if Lewis wins the federal NDP leadership, the likelihood goes way, way, way up

Other factors :
-what new information comes out about the healthcare sourcing scandal. Given that it hasn't yet and that ethics reviews rarely provide much direction, I doubt this will be a factor
-how bad the budget deficit turns out to be, although I'm unsure what the NDP would propose to do about it
-does Alberta continue to outperform the rest of the country economically
-do any of the recall petitions succeed


I think Lewis will win the federal NDP leadership and Nenshi won't be able to distance the provincial party from over the top anti fossil fuel rhetoric.

 

[trtcttc]

I'm sorry to hear that Chad. Wish you all the best back in Ontario.

Now my opinion is Alberta isn't going to separate, the US isn't going to invade and this is all just a phase. I've been inspired by how many people have come out against separation, many people here are Canadian first and Albertan second and no amount of populist chest thumping is going to change that. Same with the US, things are spiraling there, but the protests in Minnesota an other parts where he fascist Trumpism is playing out are heartening and regular people just aren't going to stand for it. Trump base is getting smaller (and likely more radical) but things are starting to turn. Videos of Trump shitting himself will only contribute to that, this is all smoke and mirrors by him and the project 2025 people, Americans are starting to see him for what he is. There's a lot more damage coming our way, but there's a hint of light at the end of the tunnel now.

Agreed on separation. I think there was an Abacus or Nanos poll that showed the Alberta separatism is mostly from feelings of unfairness within Canada, compared to Quebec where it's more a desire to be independent. It's interesting to me how much Alberta separatism is being talked about even though the people running it are honestly the fringe of the fringe. They're not some new political leader, they've been running in elections year after year and could only win a rural riding in a by-election during the NEP era briefly. Compare that to Quebec where the PQ is leading in the polls and likely to form the next government and is openly supporting independence. While Smith is more secretly supporting it. Even though I think she sees it more as a negotiating ploy, and to satiate her base, but obviously that has major risks.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I wish a separatist party would run on its own and split the vote.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

There is a large divide in this country between people in cities and rural areas. By rural areas, I include suburbs. IMO they have been cut off from the benefits of the world order Trump just changed of free trade and relatively barrier free movement of people, things, and capital. Needless to say, Trump's world order has gotten off to a bumpy start and those people are actually doing worse because they were already poor and underemployed.

All this to say, separation is their thing here in Alberta, for now. They don't get how we don't see the issue and think they've have identified THE problem when they've just identified their problem. That got Trump elected in the US, but I don't see that happening here (and the referendum succeeding here), we're too urban, too educated, and too diverse of a population. And the thing is, they're running into the same problem the further left has had, they think they have great ideas and people will come to them when in reality to win elections, you go to where the people are; Carney winning because he was seen to be suited for the Trump moment.

What scares me, in Alberta, we are not as urban, educated, or diverse. And people vote for the blue team as an economy-first voter; I mean, "it's the economy stupid". Really though, I can't see the economic and business community letting the referendum go by without talking about how bad for the economy it would be. So a referendum/election vote could easily go No/UCP.

 

[DougB]

UCP leading NDP by 13%:

Alberta Politics: UCP Support Rising, While Health Care and Separatism Drive Political Debate

Leger's latest poll on Alberta politics shows support for the United Conservative Party is rising, despite strong opposition to separatism.

leger360.com

 

[MichaelS]

And it sounds like Nenshi is concerned about the federal NDP leadership race and potential winner:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-ndp-leadership-race-9.7072751

 

[DougB]

And it sounds like Nenshi is concerned about the federal NDP leadership race and potential winner:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-ndp-leadership-race-9.7072751

The AB NDP needs to cut ties with the federal party and change its name. Lewis is going to win the federal leadership and take down the prospects for all of the provincial NDP parties west of Ontario.

Can't wait to see two blowhards like Nenshi and Lewis in a war of words

 

[trtcttc]

There is a large divide in this country between people in cities and rural areas. By rural areas, I include suburbs. IMO they have been cut off from the benefits of the world order Trump just changed of free trade and relatively barrier free movement of people, things, and capital. Needless to say, Trump's world order has gotten off to a bumpy start and those people are actually doing worse because they were already poor and underemployed.

All this to say, separation is their thing here in Alberta, for now. They don't get how we don't see the issue and think they've have identified THE problem when they've just identified their problem. That got Trump elected in the US, but I don't see that happening here (and the referendum succeeding here), we're too urban, too educated, and too diverse of a population. And the thing is, they're running into the same problem the further left has had, they think they have great ideas and people will come to them when in reality to win elections, you go to where the people are; Carney winning because he was seen to be suited for the Trump moment.

What scares me, in Alberta, we are not as urban, educated, or diverse. And people vote for the blue team as an economy-first voter; I mean, "it's the economy stupid". Really though, I can't see the economic and business community letting the referendum go by without talking about how bad for the economy it would be. So a referendum/election vote could easily go No/UCP.

Relatively to the country, we're the third highest in visible minorities (behind Ontario and BC), and we're 4th at 25.6% (behind Ontario, BC, and Yukon) in percent with a bachelor degree. So we're not less diverse or less educated than the vast majority of the country. When the PC/Wildrose merged, voters responded, with Calgary moving from a PC stronghold to a battleground, slightly favouring the NDP. Alberta as a province has a competitive NDP provincially while the federal Conservatives dominate, I think that shows a population that is engaged and voting based on their interests rather than just Conservative good, Liberal/NDP bad. You see a lot of US states that used to have split state/federal representation (i.e. Massachusetts with Republican governors while electing Democrats federally, and the reverse in Arkansas and West Virginia), have now become incredibly uniform, where voters are simply voting on party lines. There's some holdouts for his, such as Kentucky but I doubt it'll last past Bashear's term. I think Smith has been very adept politically. She's moved far right enough to satisfy the rural base, but also making deals with Carney even though that is unpopular with her UCP base, but popular with battleground Calgary. They've suggested a lot of red meat for the base, but most of the policy and budgets have been pretty centre-right.

The AB NDP needs to cut ties with the federal party and change its name. Lewis is going to win the federal leadership and take down the prospects for all of the provincial NDP parties west of Ontario.

Can't wait to see two blowhards like Nenshi and Lewis in a war of words

Notley was personally popular and Albertans knew her as a traditional labour NDP. Nenshi needs to differentiate from the federal left wing NDP fast, or risk being grouped into that especially since I think he's delivery and tone has become more elitist/city like than his earlier mayor days.

 

[trtcttc]

Ridiculous. Same with the city taxes, increasing in housing counts, ALREADY results in more taxes collected even holding the rate constant. This argument that we need to see ever higher tax increases because of population growth is just asinine.

Provincial education property tax set for double-digit surge

Calgarians are being warned to brace for a jump in the education portion of their property taxes, the second straight year of increases.

calgary.citynews.ca

 

[darwink]

Ridiculous. Same with the city taxes, increasing in housing counts, ALREADY results in more taxes collected even holding the rate constant. This argument that we need to see ever higher tax increases because of population growth is just asinine.

Provincial education property tax set for double-digit surge

Calgarians are being warned to brace for a jump in the education portion of their property taxes, the second straight year of increases.

calgary.citynews.ca

This is the result of Calgary's property values increasing at a higher rate than property in the province as a whole plus rates increasing. Two-thirds of last year's provincial increase was attributable to differential property value changes, much like how Calgary experiences differential value changes by neighbourhood.

Funding education instead via an income property tax increase would likely be even worse for Calgarians, who enjoy higher median and average incomes than Albertans.

As for city property taxes, as the rate is calculated using a revenue neutral model, the rate is reset each year to account for value and real growth, and then the increase is measured against the new typically lower rate (unless value declines are significant).

 

[DougB]

Nenshi’s NDP On Track For Disaster

Time To Treat This Like The Crisis It Is

open.substack.com

 

[trtcttc]

This is the result of Calgary's property values increasing at a higher rate than property in the province as a whole plus rates increasing. Two-thirds of last year's provincial increase was attributable to differential property value changes, much like how Calgary experiences differential value changes by neighbourhood.

Funding education instead via an income property tax increase would likely be even worse for Calgarians, who enjoy higher median and average incomes than Albertans.

As for city property taxes, as the rate is calculated using a revenue neutral model, the rate is reset each year to account for value and real growth, and then the increase is measured against the new typically lower rate (unless value declines are significant).

Our property values have not increased that dramatically last year, assessments are basically flat.

And yes, I know how taxes are calculated. But even holding the rate constant, as new homes are built, the total assessed value of the city goes up. At a constant rate, if housing completions are matching population gorwth, using population to justify a rate increase is just finding an excuse.

 

[lemongrab]

Nenshi’s NDP On Track For Disaster

Time To Treat This Like The Crisis It Is

open.substack.com

Yawn. I want my 5 minutes back. So many words to say nothing more than a couple random poll results.

Nenshi will get the most votes any non-Conservative has ever gotten in Alberta. Just like Notley did in each of the last 3 elections. It'll come down to a dozen ridings and be very close.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

It also feels like we're far off from any election. I think the scheduled one is 18-ish months away. A referendum could accelerate that depending on when it would happen and the result.

I wonder if Smith will even let it go to a referendum. It would be quite foolish to allow a referendum without having a very good read on the result being a super-majority No. I think there are enough Separatist-curious/people wanting to send a message that the number would be closer to a 40/60, yes/no vote for separation. That's too close to a, depending on turnout, 50/50 disaster. It is now socially acceptable to be at least open to the idea of separation.

I'm not a Smith supporter but I do not think she wants Alberta to separate, I genuinely believe her singular goal is to stay in power of a united Conservative government. At times that means doing some pretty awful things for certain people, but for Smith it is worth it because it keeps her and the UCP in power.

I'm trying to think if there's a way to satisfy her minority, separatist base without subjecting the province and its economy to the public humiliation of a referendum vote. If you're the Premier that causes a similar economic flight that Montreal saw post their vote, you've tarnished whatever legacy you thought you had. Not to mention a massive constitutional issue for the country and the half of people in the province that want nothing to do with separation.

 

[DougB]

Smith learned from the Kenney experience that a small, but highly motivated segment of the base can cause lots of problems. The bet is that the petition doesn't hit the threshold and the separatists have no one to blame but themselves.

Serendipity has dilivered leverage. With all that is going in with Canada's horrible economic performance, the fragile sovereign bond market, trade negotiations with the US and the increasing probability of a PQ victory in Quebec, suddenly Canada needs Alberta and will likely make concessions. This is why the prospect of a separation referendum garners more attention outside Alberta than within. Lots could go wrong. A snap election with a Liberal majority could drive reactionary petition signing. Interfefence from US groups or even the Trump admin could change the calculus. The Carney government may not progress with the outline from the MOU or may regress back to Trudeau era policy direction to satisfy its Eastern base. Should be an interesting year. I'm optimistic. Canada needs productivity fast and the energy industry is the shortest and most assured path to get there.