[Full Metal Junkie]

Ok, time to stop feeding the troll folks.

Here is a good overview/explainer of the situation as of this weekend wrt Iranian missiles, US bombing campaign, and interceptor stockpiles.

Agreed on the troll front. The ignorance is strong with this one. I am seriously contemplating awarding them the inaugural prize of being the first and only on my ignore list on UT. For the record, even EBT never made it close to being put on that list

And yeah, great analysis by Perun, as usual. I love that he spent the first 15 minutes giving a tutorial on what tools one can use to sift through disinformation on the interwebs. Actual good advice for anyone willing to venture outside of mainstream media for raw data and analysis.

As someone who is fond of OSINT analysts myself, I've had to learn these things a long time ago before I figured out how to find valuable sources of info on Xitter. It sucks that Xitter is where the OSINT scene is at. They never found another platform that is better suited for what they do.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Unless the Americans plan on "mowing the lawn" periodically, they will rebuild really fast. Watch the rest of CRINK help them rebuild. I say 5-10 years.

Not sure the rest of CRINK has much to offer.

Russia is on a verge of a serious economic crisis. It will take them years to rebuild their economy even is they were to end the Ukrainian war now. And they're not about to abandon their mission of digging themselves into an even deeper hole.

North Korea has the economy the size of a statistical error. They can't even help themselves.

China is to pragmatic to overtly support the Islamic Republic. They have become too toxic on the world stage.

If anything, the absolute lack of real support the Axis of Upheaval have provided to Venezuela and Iran, it has become clear that the axis was more of a PR project rather than an actual alliance.

They export 3 Mbpd. That pays for a lot.

Unless the sanctions are lifted, Iran will remain a strangled economy. The petro-dollars cannot pay for everything. They've been a petrostate for decades, yet their economy was so mismanaged and in such a poor state, it was collapsing before this war ever started. They were running out of water due to mismanagement, they were subsidizing a whole whack of zombie companies, the corruption was sucking the rest of the functioning economy dry. And all the money they could get, they would put into their military and the nuclear program. The military is gone, the nuclear program may be gone soon enough. The rest of the structural problems will remain if there is no regime change. So I would label your 5-10 yr estimate to rebuild as somewhat optimistic.

 

[narduch]

Israel using white phosphorus in Lebanon

Lebanon: Israel Unlawfully Using White Phosphorus

The Israeli military unlawfully used artillery-fired white phosphorus munitions over homes on March 3, 2026, in the southern Lebanese town of Yohmor.

www.hrw.org

 

[picard102]

Israel using white phosphorus in Lebanon

Lebanon: Israel Unlawfully Using White Phosphorus

The Israeli military unlawfully used artillery-fired white phosphorus munitions over homes on March 3, 2026, in the southern Lebanese town of Yohmor.

www.hrw.org

add it to the list of crimes they'll never be punished for.

 

[kEiThZ]

Russia is on a verge of a serious economic crisis.

The Trump asmin is easing sanctions and thanks to this bottleneck in supply we may see Europe start to buy Russian oil and gas again.

China is to pragmatic to overtly support the Islamic Republic.

Perfectly pragmatic to help Iran rebuild and fix a substantial part of the US military in the Middle East, especially after watching how much of the missile stockpile just got consumed. It's a relatively cheap venture to help rebuild Iran into a threat.

Unless the sanctions are lifted, Iran will remain a strangled economy. The petro-dollars cannot pay for everything. They've been a petrostate for decades, yet their economy was so mismanaged and in such a poor state, it was collapsing before this war ever started. They were running out of water due to mismanagement, they were subsidizing a whole whack of zombie companies, the corruption was sucking the rest of the functioning economy dry. And all the money they could get, they would put into their military and the nuclear program. The military is gone, the nuclear program may be gone soon enough. The rest of the structural problems will remain if there is no regime change. So I would label your 5-10 yr estimate to rebuild as somewhat optimistic.

You gotta think like the other side. Red team this. As we say. They don't care about their people. Regime survival is paramount. You will not know see Iranians starve but the regime will build the weapons they need. Or even reconstitute their proxies. North Korea starved millions to get the bomb. Pakistan's leaders famously said they'll eat grass to get nukes. Same idea.

 

[narduch]

If the war was going well they wouldn't be talking like this.

 

[kEiThZ]

Fairly sure the only thing he responds to is markets.

 

[Mihairokov]

Fairly sure the only thing he responds to is markets.

It's not just the responding: it's the profiteering off of markets by him and others in the administration on things like shitcoins, valuable stocks, and now oil. Say something before markets close, buy short options, then say the opposite after markets close = profit. It's one thing to be responding to the whims of the market but it's another to manipulate them specifically for your own profit. This is the USA now.

 

[narduch]

Pentagon now admitting 140 soldiers have been wounded in their latest useless war

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

The news of IRGC boats mining the Straight of Hormuz:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031466174018629813

The price of oil futures reacting to the news:

The volatility of the oil markets is something to behold the last 10 days.

 

[afransen]

I see speculation is that Trump plans to seize the oil loading facility on Kharg Island, which is the main export terminal for Iran. US holds it indefinitely as strategic leverage, perhaps to extract their vig similar to Venezuela. They can also make it a US military base, though I'm not sure why that would be desirable.

 

[81-717]

Hopefully not on US soil, though (and certainly not on Canadian soil).

This is what I mean: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/livestory/iran-israel-us-war-day-11-9.7119190
Sucks this is a problem for us too, even though Canada won't participate.

Wonder how true this is now:

the statistical reality is that you are more likely to get hit by a car than killed in a terrorist attack in Canada. And it's not close. Canada has had less than 50 people killed due to terrorism since the year 2000

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Wonder how true this is now:

the statistical reality is that you are more likely to get hit by a car than killed in a terrorist attack in Canada. And it's not close. Canada has had less than 50 people killed due to terrorism since the year 2000.

Statistically speaking this will be true for a long time. Or at least until we as a country implement proper Scandinavian style vision zero policies.

Currently we are sitting at an average of 2 murders a year due to terrorism (half of which is by white supremacists) vs. 300 pedestrian fatalities per year according to Statistics Canada.

So we're talking orders of magnitude difference here. Don't let the scaremongering get to you.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Cross-post from the Russia-Ukraine War thread:


This story just keeps getting more and more ridiculous. Axios now reports that half a year ago the Ukrainians pitched their help to set up an integrated counter-drone system for the Middle East theatre. Trump admin snubbed them.

Original article:
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/10/us-ukraine-anti-drone-offer
Paywall-free

Key points:

Nearly seven months ago, Ukrainian officials tried to sell the U.S. their battle-proven technology for downing Iranian-made attack drones.

The Trump administration dismissed the Ukrainians, only to reverse course last week

Iran's inexpensive Shahed drones have been linked to the deaths of seven U.S. service members, and have cost the U.S. and its friends in the region millions of dollars to intercept.

The Ukrainians made a PowerPoint presentation to U.S. officials that displayed a map of the Middle East and had this prophetic warning: "Iran is improving its Shahed one-way-attack drone design."

The presentation included the idea of creating "drone combat hubs" in Turkey, Jordan and the Persian Gulf states, where U.S. bases are located, to address the threat from Iran and its proxies.

to build the 'drone walls' and all the things necessary like the radar, et cetera

the Ukrainian leader is seen by some in the Trump administration as too much of a self-promoter of a client state that doesn't command enough respect.

On Thursday, the U.S. formally asked Zelensky for anti-drone help

Hubris and arrogance - the reason for seven US soldiers losing their lives and equipment losses totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in the Iranian conflict so far. If only they gave Ukraine the respect it deserves and recognized that there are lessons to be learned from Ukraine's experience, things could have turned out a lot different for the current war with Iran.

 

[afransen]

The Trump admin are lazy and incompetent. They likely didn't want to rely on Ukraine when they were seriously considering cutting them loose to capitulate to Russia.