[Full Metal Junkie]

And your defense of Israel is pathetic as they repeat what they did in Gaza in Lebanon now.
I will never understand people that support both Ukraine and Israel.

I have yet to be seen/heard defending Israel even once. Just because you keep accusing me of it, doesn't make it so.

I am aware of IDF war crimes and I've been critical of Netanyahu's handling of Palestine for decades now. However, unlike you, Israel is not the only thing on my radar of evils in this "wonderful" world we live in.

Great for you that you're finally coming around and looking at what war crimes other governments get up to. Once you're done with researching Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, maybe also take a look at what happened in El Fasher on October 26, 2025. And when you're done with that, I can suggest another 10 or so genocides that are happening right now around the world for you to look at. Each one way bloodier that whatever IDF has been up to in Gaza. And when you're done with those, then come back here and tell us if you still think that Israel and US are the biggest evils in this world.

 

[narduch]

I have yet to be seen/heard defending Israel even once. Just because you keep accusing me of it, doesn't make it so.

I am aware of IDF war crimes and I've been critical of Netanyahu's handling of Palestine for decades now. However, unlike you, Israel is not the only thing on my radar of evils in this "wonderful" world we live in.

Great for you that you're finally coming around and looking at what war crimes other governments get up to. Once you're done with researching Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, maybe also take a look at what happened in El Fasher on October 26, 2025. And when you're done with that, I can suggest another 10 or so genocides that are happening right now around the world for you to look at. Each one way bloodier that whatever IDF has been up to in Gaza. And when you're done with those, then come back here and tell us if you still think that Israel and US are the biggest evils in this world.

I actually dont believe you. You just claim to be critical of Netanyahu as a shield for your inherent bias.

And I already am well aware of other attrocities in the world and have still come to my conclusions.

The Americans fuck over any country they meddle in. They've been doing that for decades now. And there is a mountain of proof of how evil Israel is. I don't need to defend myself when I make that point.

Anyways Im done interacring with you and the rest of the band of pro war guys on UT. You obviously have your pre set biases that cloud your judgement. And can't stand it when anyone questions American hegemony or points out Israeli atrocities (in the Mid East thread of all places)

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Im done interacring with you

Good. Likewise.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

That said, the general conclusion that this war is lost is probably trending towards accurate. Regime change through air power only happened in Serbia. And that's a lot smaller than Iran.

Yes, I agree with the argument that a regime change by bombs has very limited historic precedent. And if we assume that the bombing campaign we've seen thus far is it, then yes, Islamic Republic has won the war.

There are just a few scenarios (all very unlikely) that can turn the ship around at this point, imho:

1. Sustained bombing campaign with continuous successful decapitation strikes. Similar to what was recently done with Hezbollah. If you cycle through enough hardliner Supreme Leaders, eventually one of them is bound to be as cooperative as Delcy Rodríguez. In Trump's world, you don't need a regime change, you just need a regime subjugation. The issue is that the intel on Iran doesn't seem to be nearly as good as it was on Hezbollah. Hezbollah leaders rarely survived longer than a day after being announced. Not the case in this war. And in general, this plan would be a hailmarry hope-based strategy to begin with. And it's getting more challenging to sell this strategy to the public by the day.

2. Moving beyond airstrikes. Boots on the ground. Good luck selling this strategy to the public.

3. Stop the bombing campaign and cross your fingers that there is a popular uprising that topples Ayatollahs and IRGC. Another one of those hope-based strategies. But there is a number of historic precedents of revolutions starting after a country suffers an embarrassing military defeat. Are the conditions ripe for it in Iran? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sufficed to say, US has gotten themselves into quite a pickle here.

 

[lenaitch]

2. Moving beyond airstrikes. Boots on the ground. Good luck selling this strategy to the public.

I highly doubt there is an appetite in the US Administration or the population for an on-the-ground presence beyond some quick SEAL insertion or something similar to execute a task. Hegseth and his holy ware followers would have limited support once the memories of caskets arriving at Dover are recalled.

There is probably enough bench strength in the Iranian Islamic hierarchy that the US could play whack-a-mole for quite a while.

Trying to effect a durable social or regime change from 20,000 feet is like trying to pick up a turd from the clean end.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

I highly doubt there is an appetite in the US Administration or the population for an on-the-ground presence beyond some quick SEAL insertion or something similar to execute a task. Hegseth and his holy ware followers would have limited support once the memories of caskets arriving at Dover are recalled.

There is probably enough bench strength in the Iranian Islamic hierarchy that the US could play whack-a-mole for quite a while.

Trying to effect a durable social or regime change from 20,000 feet is like trying to pick up a turd from the clean end.

As I said, all of the scenarios I listed are highly improbable. It's just that the rest of the scenarios are even worse.

What's looking more probable at this point is US/Israel destabilize Iran until it descends into failed statehood. An awful outcome for the people of Iran and for the region in general. But an outcome that is unfortunately completely acceptable to Trump and Netanyahu. Of course they would still have to do a snatch-and-grab operation to extract all of the enriched uranium out of the country first. And then keep bombing until Iran turns into Libya 2.0 at which point they will call it a day.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Oof...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032213628607205684

 

[kEiThZ]

Stop the bombing campaign and cross your fingers that there is a popular uprising that topples Ayatollahs and IRGC.

Now that they are actually hitting the Basij (the religious police), there's maybe a small non-zero chance. But it's probably like single digits.

I suspect these people think all Middle Eastern countries are the same. They don't understand how diverse Iran is. And how that diversity plays into their politics. I actually see even people who maybe oppose the war have the same basic ignorance.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Of course they would still have to do a snatch-and-grab operation to extract all of the enriched uranium out of the country first.

^I'm going to piece together some news on this.

First of all, there's news that during the phone call earlier this week, Putin reportedly proposed to Trump to move Iran's 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium to Russia as part of a deal to end the war.Trump rejected the offer as per Axios.


Then there's news that US marines are being deployed to the Middle East, reported by WSJ and multiple other publications with independent verifications:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2032488038035538405

Majority of the media speculation in relation to marine deployment is about this:

I see speculation is that Trump plans to seize the oil loading facility on Kharg Island, which is the main export terminal for Iran.

However, my Spidey senses are tingling and telling me that these marines may be involved in the uranium extraction operation instead.

There is a really good article by TWZ from a couple of days ago about how the uranium capture operation might look like and what its numerous risks are. Crazy risks. It would be ballsy for them to even contemplate it, but with this admin, crazy never stopped them before. A long read, but highly recommended:

Commando Raid To Secure Iran's Enriched Uranium May Become A Very Risky Necessity

A raid is fraught with risk, but it may become the only way to make sure the nuclear material is safe and out of the regime's hands.

www.twz.com

 

[afransen]

There is a really good article by TWZ from a couple of days ago about how the uranium capture operation might look like and what its numerous risks are. Crazy risks. It would be ballsy for them to even contemplate it, but with this admin, crazy never stopped them before. A long read, but highly recommended:

 

[picard102]

And that's just one story that struck a chord with me. If you ever bothered to look at what's going on Ukraine, you'd know that these things happen there almost daily. And unlike the IDF soldiers that were acquitted of the rape, none of the Russian war criminals go through the court system. A lot of them get medals of honor for this. The worse the war crime, the higher the honor.

They punished the whistleblower exposing these rapes and the rapists did a PR tour on Israeli TV. Like Russian soldiers, they were praised as heros and did not have to face the courts.

"The State of Israel must hunt down its enemies, not its own heroic fighters," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement praising the decision.

 

[afransen]

They punished the whistleblower exposing these rapes and the rapists did a PR tour on Israeli TV. Like Russian soldiers, they were praised as heros and did not have to face the courts.

"The State of Israel must hunt down its enemies, not its own heroic fighters," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement praising the decision.

In Russia, it wouldn't even be newsworthy.

 

[picard102]

In Russia, it wouldn't even be newsworthy.

It likely wouldn't have been, except politicians and citizens tried to storm the base they were being detained at to free them.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

They punished the whistleblower exposing these rapes and the rapists did a PR tour on Israeli TV. Like Russian soldiers, they were praised as heros and did not have to face the courts.
"The State of Israel must hunt down its enemies, not its own heroic fighters," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement praising the decision.

I don't question the fact that Netanyahu is doing some of the same things as Putin. The difference is the sheer scale of atrocities, how inhumane they are, and how systemic the rewards for them are. Netanyahu "rescued" these IDF soldiers that were, in fact, originally detained for what they've done. No one in Russia is ever detained for any war crimes that they commit. However, they do routinely detain, torture and kill soldiers that refuse to commit the war crimes (see the article about "zeroers" from this post on the Ukraine war thread). And they do routinely have pompous state awards for units exposed as having commited war crimes in Western media. They do it as a big "F you" and as a way of encouraging the worst imaginable cruelty towards the people of Ukraine. Here's just a couple examples, but there are dozens more:

Russian Brigade Accused Of Bucha War Crimes Awarded Honorary Title

Russian President Vladimir Putin has bestowed an honorary title on a brigade accused by Ukraine of committing war crimes in the town of Bucha.

www.rferl.org

Putin awards ‘hero of Russia’ status for war crimes against Ukrainian civilians in Yahidne and Mariupol

Chalym Chuldum-ool’s brigade was implicated in the imprisonment of 369 men, women and children in horrific conditions, using them as human shields, while Alexander Evtody is believed to have taken part in the bombing of civilians in Mariupol

khpg.org

And don't get me wrong, the indiscriminate bombing of civilians, the orchestrated famines, the denial and cover-up of war crimes by Netanyahu government - none of it has any excuses. It's reprehensible.

All I was trying to say is that if you actually think that Netanyahu government is the absolute worst, most evil thing on the face of this planet - boy! have I got news for you: he has to get in line, and the line ahead of him is not that short.

 

[kEiThZ]

No one in Russia is ever detained for any war crimes that they commit.

Literally a feature they offer as a headline service. If you want war crimes committed against someone, just hire Russian mercenaries.