[innsertnamehere]

Assuming that US travel will go back to how it was after the next election assumes that we ignore the 4 years prior. Some will, but many won't. Business people will still fly, but for the regular vacationer, many won't return, or will greatly reduce their travel..

Assuming we don't see the outright hostility to Canada in a subsequent administration US-bound travel will return with time. Perhaps not immediately in 2028 but over time - people have short memories and ultimately money talks and the US is simply a cheaper vacation destination for many given the proximity. Take a look at european flight prices this summer - costs have almost doubled while flights to the US are dirt cheap. You can get flights to California for like $400 while flights to Italy are hard to find for less than $1,500..

 

[nfitz]

The drop in the US travel is temporary. The orange haired nuisance will be gone long before any airport plans are implemented.

He's the symptom of the disunity and rise of fascism there. He's not the cause. I suspect the whole thing will oscillate until there's finally a massive enough death toll to permanently change society. This is what we saw in 1940s in Europe, and the 1860s in the USA - for examples. I think it's going to get far worse, before it gets better (decades from now).

I am not so sure about your claim re convenience. I use BB every time I can, take the GO into Union, the shuttle, through clearance in a zip, and away. A much nicer experience then Pearson. Add a little larger plane with a tad more range and I think use of the airport rises

Agreed. My usage is only limited by a lack of flights to my destination. My use will only increase after they add jets with a longer range.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

My long held belief is that given how difficult new airport construction is, we should hold on to any operating airports as much as possible. Yes the Pickering airport was a near scandal, yes YYZ is operating (well) below maximum capacity now, yes there are alternative airports that are currently under used (Hamilton, London, K-W). But Pearson will eventually reach it's operational maximum, maybe not in the 2030's or 40's but it's coming and building a brand new airport from scratch, (or even renovating an existing one) is a decade long project, and an overflow option will be needed. Be it a revived Pickering airport or one of the Western GTA airports stepping up. Having BB allows for some leeway before those big decisions need to be made

 

[TwoWheelPoli]

Matt Elliott weighed in on the matter in this morning's Toronto Star column. Calls out the high landing fees (vs Pearson), low passenger traffic (2.0M vs 2.8M pre-COVID), potential gridlock, and the estimated $1 billion price tag.

Matt Elliott: How the numbers undermine Doug Ford’s flight of fancy on Billy Bishop and jets

There are reasons to be skeptical of the Billy Bishop proposal, based on what we do know about the economic reality of the island airport.

www.thestar.com

 

[picard102]

One also has to acknowledge that Billy Bisop is no longer the convenient choice for the vast majority of Torontonians.

Since when? I live in North York and BB is far more convenient.

 

[Rainforest]

He's the symptom of the disunity and rise of fascism there. He's not the cause. I suspect the whole thing will oscillate until there's finally a massive enough death toll to permanently change society. This is what we saw in 1940s in Europe, and the 1860s in the USA - for examples. I think it's going to get far worse, before it gets better (decades from now).

It is true that he is a symptom of deep underlying problems, that will not disappear magically when his term ends.

That said, his choice to engage in a loud public quarrel with Canada is a reflection of his personality, rather than a part of any long-term strategy.

Hard to predict the future political developments and conflicts. And yet, it seems unlikely that these two societies that share the same British legal heritage and social structure, will diverge to the point where ordinary people refuse to visit each other.

There are far more differences between the U.S. states, than between the Canadian provinces and the U.S. states they share the border with.

 

[nfitz]

It is true that he is a symptom of deep underlying problems, that will not disappear magically when his term ends.

That said, his choice to engage in a loud public quarrel with Canada is a reflection of his personality, rather than a part of any long-term strategy.

Hard to predict the future political developments and conflicts. And yet, it seems unlikely that these two societies that share the same British legal heritage and social structure, will diverge to the point where ordinary people refuse to visit each other.

There are far more differences between the U.S. states, than between the Canadian provinces and the U.S. states they share the border with.

I'll reply in the Orange fascist thread. I'd suggest we take this there! https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/president-donald-trumps-united-states-of-america.26622

 

[ownthesky]

My long held belief is that given how difficult new airport construction is, we should hold on to any operating airports as much as possible. Yes the Pickering airport was a near scandal, yes YYZ is operating (well) below maximum capacity now, yes there are alternative airports that are currently under used (Hamilton, London, K-W). But Pearson will eventually reach it's operational maximum, maybe not in the 2030's or 40's but it's coming and building a brand new airport from scratch, (or even renovating an existing one) is a decade long project, and an overflow option will be needed. Be it a revived Pickering airport or one of the Western GTA airports stepping up. Having BB allows for some leeway before those big decisions need to be made

If Metrolinx wasn't such a joke, we'd have the Lakeshore West lines up to modern standards by now, then the "A Line" in Hamilton could get you to the airport from across much of the GTA with just two seats.

 

[hw621]

I am not so sure about your claim re convenience. I use BB every time I can, take the GO into Union, the shuttle, through clearance in a zip, and away. A much nicer experience then Pearson. Add a little larger plane with a tad more range and I think use of the airport rises

Billy Bishop is convenient today—but that’s largely because of its lower volume. Quick security, short lines, and easy transfers all depend on limited traffic.

If jets are introduced and demand rises, those advantages could fade. More passengers would likely mean longer queues, congestion, and a busier overall experience—potentially making it feel much closer to Pearson than it does now.

 

[turbanplanner]

Billy Bishop is convenient today—but that’s largely because of its lower volume. Quick security, short lines, and easy transfers all depend on limited traffic.

If jets are introduced and demand rises, those advantages could fade. More passengers would likely mean longer queues, congestion, and a busier overall experience—potentially making it feel much closer to Pearson than it does now.

The GTTA couldn't manage a lemonade stand.

 

[micheal_can]

Assuming we don't see the outright hostility to Canada in a subsequent administration US-bound travel will return with time. Perhaps not immediately in 2028 but over time - people have short memories and ultimately money talks and the US is simply a cheaper vacation destination for many given the proximity. Take a look at european flight prices this summer - costs have almost doubled while flights to the US are dirt cheap. You can get flights to California for like $400 while flights to Italy are hard to find for less than $1,500..

The thing is, by the time the desire to travel gets back to pre "whatever this mess is" levels, ALTO may be operational and the number of slots in YYZ is opened due to the reduction of flights that ALTO can replace.

 

[nightstreak]

Billy Bishop is convenient today—but that’s largely because of its lower volume. Quick security, short lines, and easy transfers all depend on limited traffic.

If jets are introduced and demand rises, those advantages could fade. More passengers would likely mean longer queues, congestion, and a busier overall experience—potentially making it feel much closer to Pearson than it does now.

Exactly this. When Porter at Centre Island Airport was new, it was virtually all business travellers, walking through security involved being waived through one of two metal detectors and you were in the terminal with free cookies and drinks (remember those??) on the other side. A decade later, you started hearing crying babies and kids running around, the free cookies were gone and the snaking lineups at security started to feel like any other airport. When jets get here and volume goes up there'll be little difference to going to YYZ. In fact, Pearson might be better equipped to handle volume and it's just 25 minutes away on UP Express.

 

[hw621]

Exactly this. When Porter at Centre Island Airport was new, it was virtually all business travellers, walking through security involved being waived through one of two metal detectors and you were in the terminal with free cookies and drinks (remember those??) on the other side. A decade later, you started hearing crying babies and kids running around, the free cookies were gone and the snaking lineups at security started to feel like any other airport. When jets get here and volume goes up there'll be little difference to going to YYZ. In fact, Pearson might be better equipped to handle volume and it's just 25 minutes away on UP Express.

Unfortunately UPX seems to be crumbling, but we have a whole other thread for that...

 

[picard102]

Billy Bishop is convenient today—but that’s largely because of its lower volume. Quick security, short lines, and easy transfers all depend on limited traffic.

It's convenient because of its location.

 

[nightstreak]

It's convenient because of its location.

Not really. It often takes me longer to take the Porter shuttle bus from Royal York Hotel that has to drive through Toronto traffic to Eireann Quay than it takes me to take UP Express and arrive at Pearson International 25 minutes later. I timed both in the last few months at roughly the same time (3:30 - 4pm window).

My office to the Royal York Porter bus was just over a 5 minute walk.
The bus sat waiting for a while, maybe 10 minutes (not counted). Buses depart every 15 minutes.
It left, got stuck at several red lights, then inched along on King behind a streetcar, then stuck in car traffic from Portland to Bathurst and inched along down Bathurst for 10 minutes. 28 minutes.
Total time: 33 minutes – Bay Street CBD to Billy Bishop (not counting wait)

My office to UP Express station. 6 minutes. 1 minute more than to the shuttle stop.
Waited 6 minutes, sat on the train another 6 minutes (not counted). Trains depart every 15 minutes.
Arrived at Pearson in 25 minutes.
Total time: 31 minutes – Bay Street CBD to Pearson International (not counting wait)

Yes, Billy Bishop is downtown but one has to contend with downtown traffic to get there. UP Express changes the entire calculation. The A-B connection in one train makes YYZ effectively one transfer away from Union Station in the heart of downtown.