News   GLOBAL  |  Apr 02, 2020
 11K     0 
News   GLOBAL  |  Apr 01, 2020
 43K     0 
News   GLOBAL  |  Apr 01, 2020
 6.7K     0 

My prediction / wishlist:

2030:
3 leg Calgary commuter rail complete
YYC / Banff HSR complete
Daily Jasper / Edmonton service established

2035:
YYC / Red Deer / YEG HSR complete
YEG LRT extension complete
Red Deer region commuter rail established
Commuter rail extension to Banff
Jasper / Edmonton line upgraded to 240kph


2040:
YEG / Edmonton HSR complete (maybe?)
Calgary / Lethbridge HSR extension
240kph lines to Med Hat, Ft Mac, Grand Prairie

2045:
240kph links into Saskatchewan
Service extensions into BC, Golden, Valemont, Fernie
Amtrack connection from Lethbridge

I'm prepared to be disappointed! 😂
 
My prediction / wishlist:

2030:
3 leg Calgary commuter rail complete
YYC / Banff HSR complete
Daily Jasper / Edmonton service established
That would make me happy. Unpopular opinion here, but I don't care as much about YYC-YEG, I'd much rather see YYC-Banff done first. Tourism to Banff isn't going to slow down, it's only going to get busier. We need to get started on it now so it can be finished sometime within the next decade.
 
That would make me happy. Unpopular opinion here, but I don't care as much about YYC-YEG, I'd much rather see YYC-Banff done first. Tourism to Banff isn't going to slow down, it's only going to get busier. We need to get started on it now so it can be finished sometime within the next decade.

Those are the ones that make the most economic sense, for sure.

The rest of it is 'nation building' for the most part. May not ever get full cost recovery, but would still be good to have.

At some point the YEG HSR link will make economic sense too though. Can't expand YYC any further, and it makes more sense to link a nearby airport that comes with 1m+ customers than to build another one in the Calgary region.
 
 
Last edited:
The Alberta government is posting for a few passenger rail related jobs. Could be an early indicator on the implementation plan moving forward. At minimum they are giving ATEC money to hire so clearly there's some will for passager rail getting past a basic map!

https://jobpostings.alberta.ca/job/Edmonton-Rail-Planning-Specialist/601185217/

Both rolls are based in Edmonton though.
Honestly, I don't need an announcement, this is as good an indication that they're at least a little serious. Curious if we'll get an announcement this week, if it is a meaningless announcement then we'll get a Good Friday, long weekend announcement. If it is something it will be next week.
 
Both rolls are based in Edmonton though.
I suppose it doesn't matter much at this early stage, but it seems silly to limit it to Edmonton considering the first project will definitely involve Calgary, but maybe not Edmonton. It would at least make sense to leave it open and find the best candidate in the province. But most likely they have a crony in mind already
 
The Alberta government is posting for a few passenger rail related jobs. Could be an early indicator on the implementation plan moving forward. At minimum they are giving ATEC money to hire so clearly there's some will for passager rail getting past a basic map!

https://jobpostings.alberta.ca/job/Edmonton-Rail-Planning-Specialist/601185217/

Both rolls are based in Edmonton though.
Looks like they also have a manager/director on the team already based on the description, and this is just filling out the team.

Based on this link in the job posting: https://mydocs.wfd.alberta.ca/media...a_senior-policy-advisor-passenger-rail_jd.pdf
 
Having just gotten back from Japan, I'm 100% onboard with HSR.
I think HSR is great, but I find once the numbers get so large, people sort of lose the sense of scale of how much it costs. The Alto HSR connecting the Ontario/Quebec corridor is estimated at $60-$90B, before any of the inevitable cost overruns. At the lowest estimate of $60B, that's equivalent to 71% of AB current year entire budget expense, 4.4 years of our entire spend on healthcare as a province. For that same amount, you can build 43 Calgary Cancer Centres or 120 BMO Centre Expansions, or 245 Central Libraries, and about 240 Rocky Ridge YMCA (initial cost of 191M, assuming today maybe closer to $250M). Comparing to the Green Line, the Shepard to Downtown phase 1 (including the elevated portion to 7th Ave SW) is pegged at $6.248B (with inevitable overruns not included), that's 1/10th the cost of the Alto project. The much shorter Toronto East Waterfront LRT was recently announced at $3B.

I don't think HSR in Calgary would cost anywhere close to the Alto cost, and it's a bit unclear how much is property acquisition for Alto, which the AB HSR presumably would require less of. But even compared to other transit, is there more economic and population benefit to build transit to each corners of our city instead of an HSR for inter-city travel. And I assume like VIA Rail, there will be ongoing subsidies to keep fare affordable. If we spend the same subsidy, can we run free/extremely low cost bus routes connecting Edmonton/Red Deer/Calgary?
 
I think HSR is great, but I find once the numbers get so large, people sort of lose the sense of scale of how much it costs. The Alto HSR connecting the Ontario/Quebec corridor is estimated at $60-$90B, before any of the inevitable cost overruns. At the lowest estimate of $60B, that's equivalent to 71% of AB current year entire budget expense, 4.4 years of our entire spend on healthcare as a province. For that same amount, you can build 43 Calgary Cancer Centres or 120 BMO Centre Expansions, or 245 Central Libraries, and about 240 Rocky Ridge YMCA (initial cost of 191M, assuming today maybe closer to $250M). Comparing to the Green Line, the Shepard to Downtown phase 1 (including the elevated portion to 7th Ave SW) is pegged at $6.248B (with inevitable overruns not included), that's 1/10th the cost of the Alto project. The much shorter Toronto East Waterfront LRT was recently announced at $3B.

I don't think HSR in Calgary would cost anywhere close to the Alto cost, and it's a bit unclear how much is property acquisition for Alto, which the AB HSR presumably would require less of. But even compared to other transit, is there more economic and population benefit to build transit to each corners of our city instead of an HSR for inter-city travel. And I assume like VIA Rail, there will be ongoing subsidies to keep fare affordable. If we spend the same subsidy, can we run free/extremely low cost bus routes connecting Edmonton/Red Deer/Calgary?
It's hard to conceptualize projects of this scale for both costs and benefits. Think of the provincial or national highway system - what did that cost to build? Hundreds of billions? Could we even figure out the true cost? Was it "under budget"? These are tough (and close to impossible) questions to answer with any level of precision.

Did the highway system "pay for itself'? The answer is largely no, at least directly. The value isn't from an ideas that we'd make a profit by building a HSR line or a new highway, it's on the broader societal and economic value it generates.

The highway system connects people to jobs and goods to markets. This lowers costs for everyone using the system - can't get a product to a market if there's no roads between the factory and the stores. Can't work at the store if you can't get there from your house. Lots of the benefits to the owner of the road system only come back in indirect ways, over an infinite timeline and untraceable back to the original investment with much precision (e.g. some of the corporate tax generated by the factory was due to the access to the highway, labour income taxes from the person who now can work).

HSR is one of these types of projects. It's kind of hard to test it's value on questions like will fares pay back the $90B price tag. If built right, the value is generated from permanently integrating 3 major labour markets of some 15 million people + 10 million jobs so millions of more people are closer to each other. That generates all sorts of benefits and activity in the long-run, the same way the original highway and railways did over a century ago. That travel time benefit and economic activity isn't there if we just pay for people's bus tickets.

The other thing to consider is the size of the economy. $90B is huge, but will take 10+ years to build - that's $9B a year. Enormous still, but our economy produces $2 Trillion + a year. So under 0.5% of annual GDP for this project. Big but not unimaginably big - TMX pipeline was in that same ballpark. Regular maintenance of all the stuff we already built exceeds this number every year.

If that's still not convincing, I recommend doing some reading on how the Canadian Pacific Railway was built back in the 1880s for perspective - something like 10 to 20% of all federal budget for a decade, plus hundreds of thousands of hectares of land given away, enormous cost overruns, crazy corruption levels - all in a far cheaper era for building big projects. Nearly bankrupted the country, but total the railway system contributes several points of GDP every year since (in addition to national unity and geopolitical). Ask these questions against that project - did it pay for itself? Was it worth it?
 
Unpopular take, but I don't think we need HSR to Edmonton, at least at this moment or the near future. QC to Toronto makes more sense given the population and distances, but I don't believe it makes sense for Alberta at this time.

Personally, I'd rather see a rail system for Banff, and not necessarily a high speed one to start, just some sort of scheduled reliable system that runs at decent intervals. If the system becomes heavily used, it could be upgraded later.
 
I agree, $90B is a very large number, and it's difficult to know how long the economic benefits would ever truly pay off that price tag. However, as CBBarnett mentions, there are incredible intangibles.

Having lived in Toronto, and having driven/flown from Toronto to Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City on multiple occasions, I can say with certainty that this corridor would receive significant ridership, not only from Canadians, but also from international tourists. An HSR between these cities would increase the appeal of tourism to Ontario/Quebec, and increase the average lengths of stays of those visiting. There is little appeal for tourists to visit all of these cities in a single visit, because it necessitates renting a car, taking VIA, or taking a flight, none of which are fast or cost effective. HSR improves the possibility of tourists visiting all of these cities.

I couldn't believe how efficient the Shinkansens were. It was incredible just showing up at a train station and buying a ticket, because the next train was coming every 3 minutes. On average, Shinkansen trains are delayed by less than 1 minute. Now, think about how many flights you've taken in the past few years that have been delayed. Think about how long it takes to get to/from Pearson Airport (even with the UP), plus how long it takes to get through security, get on/off a plane, and pick-up your luggage. I would pay more to walk onto a HSR over sitting in traffic or the hassle of flying any day. Now think about what traffic is like on Hwy 401, or the toll cost to take Hwy 407.

The Alto won't compare to Japanese Shinkansens, but the populations that Alto would serve is not much different than some of the populations serviced by some European lines. If it could rival the HSRs in Spain, I think the investment would be worth it. Japan is even beginning to convert some Shinkansen trains to carry freight due to shortages in truck drivers.

Having seen the possibilities (and I haven't traveled to China, so I can only imagine what their HSR network is like), I just think this is a long-term investment into the economy, and the cost will not get lower with time.
 

Back
Top