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The NDP entered the 2015 election campaign leading in most major polls.

They ended the campaign 10% behind the other two parties.

Worth noting that the polls in the link start mid-campaign (Harper called the election extra early). But also that in those "most major polls", there were few in which there was more than a 10-point spread btw/the three major parties. That is, while the NDP led in support in a lot of those polls, it was a tentative and qualified kind of lead in support--voters were antsy about the Cons, but were also uncertain about whether the NDP was the place to park their anti-Con vote. It was a "soft" lead, not a decisive one (and one that was probably heavily plumped by expectations of QC being, maybe, even more "in the bag" than it was in '11)--and it was because voters were still momentarily programmed to think of the Justin Libs as being more "recovery mode" than "victory mode"...
 

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