[urbanclient]

So it's all about their seats now and fuck the people and the ideology they are supposed to represent?

Always has been.

 

[adma]

Gladu!? That riding's been CPC ever since that party was formed.

Not quite. It reelected the Libs' Roger Gallaway in '04; and when Gallaway was defeated in '06 it was seen as something of an upset. And up to that time it was seen as a Peterborough-style bellwether (and provincially, it elected the Libs in *1999*--but likewise somewhat contrarily fell to the Tories in '07, and has remained in that camp ever since.)

While there's definitely an ancestral Conservative-cum-Bible Belt element within the riding (particularly in the rural parts), the real key to subsequent Conservative dominance is their tapping into a certain urban "petrochemical populism" sentiment, and the local Liberal infrastructure collapsing completely following their joint federal and provincial defeats, *and* the fact that the opposition's been split by the NDP deciding to quixotically target Sarnia (the Dippers were either 2nd or at least a quarter of the vote in every parliamentary election, federally and provincially, btw/Galloway's defeat and the '25 federal disaster). So yes, the riding's been consistently Con over the past 2 decades, but it's a rather quirky kind of Conservative...

 

[ShonTron]

I’m not at all shocked that it was Evan Solomon who worked this kooky konservative to cross the floor. I remain angry that this was the tool the LPC appointed to Toronto Centre, which is also the heart of Canada’s LGBT community.

 

[PinkLucy]

So it's all about their seats now and fuck the people and the ideology they are supposed to represent?

apart from a few, this is what it has always been about.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Gives a new meaning to "Big Tent" Liberals... /s

 

[picard102]

Great for the NDP. Neither the Libs or Cons can be seen as progressive parties now.

 

[Towered]

Exactly what is causing these defections?!

Political opportunism, obviously

 

[nfitz]

Political opportunism, obviously

That's always existed. I don't recall anything on this scale before. We seen opposition parties have support slip without this many leaving the ship.

There's a huge schism in the Conservative party - and particularly between a lot of the MPs and PP. I'd assume much of it was from PP's and Scheer's social conservatism. But I'm not sure that is so much of the case for the member for Sarnia.

Maybe it's more a reaction from MPs to the control-freak nature of the party, where MPs can't event do local media interviews.

 

[zang]

I don't think any number would motivate him to step down. He'll need to be forced out. It would hurt his pride far too much to be told to leave.

Since he was a teen, Skippy's been telling everyone he knows in politics that he would "be prime minister someday". It'll take weeks to dig the fingernails out from Stornoway's threshold.

Not sure DoFo is up to having to deal with Albertans, or caring about anything outside of Toronto, but if his slipping numbers in Ontario are any indication the timing may end up working out for him.

Yeah, but what are his prospects if his numbers are in the tank with ⅓ of the country's population? He'd have had better luck last year.

Not to mention, I think being a Premier—especially one of the more visible ones—comes with a lot of the country well aware of your baggage. Has there been a single Premier in the 20th and 21st centuries who's gone on to be Prime Minister? And that's what Doug cares about more than being federal party leader.

There's no sense pretending that both the CPC and LPC aren't centre-neoliberal parties interested in preserving the status quo. All the LPC ever do is steal policies, and now MPs, from other parties and suit it to whatever narrative they're working with on the day.

It honestly feels like the LPC is gunning to replace the CPC entirely. In the long run, the Conservatives will need to ditch the idea of courting the alt-right and yeet the Reformers, or go the opposite direction and merge with Maxime. Either way, they'll lose.

That said, social programs and austerity don't mix well, so I don't know how well taking on so many conservatives will work with voters work in the long run (especially Gladu), and I feel Carney's gonna crash hard once this extended honeymoon wears off. For the last couple of decades, the LPC has always seemed like the conservative party for people who don't want their neighbours to think they're d!cks; and now the party's asking the d!cks to ride shotgun.

 

[Mihairokov]

Since he was a teen, Skippy's been telling everyone he knows in politics that he would "be prime minister someday". It'll take weeks to dig the fingernails out from Stornoway's threshold.

Everything Conservatives spew is projection but Poilievre staying at Stornoway despite losing his Official Opposition Leader title is the icing on the cake.

Yeah, but what are his prospects if his numbers are in the tank with ⅓ of the country's population? He'd have had better luck last year.

Not to mention, I think being a Premier—especially one of the more visible ones—comes with a lot of the country well aware of your baggage. Has there been a single Premier in the 20th and 21st centuries who's gone on to be Prime Minister? And that's what Doug cares about more than being federal party leader.

I'd agree with this. I'm not sure what else there is for him to do after being Premier, though. Maybe there's enough sea change and he isn't really suited to any sort of higher-level office in the near future. One can hope.

It honestly feels like the LPC is gunning to replace the CPC entirely. In the long run, the Conservatives will need to ditch the idea of courting the alt-right and yeet the Reformers, or go the opposite direction and merge with Maxime. Either way, they'll lose.

Carney's building a really big tent. I think it's smart to do it under the current circumstances (threat of US) but when/if that threat leaves it'll be tough to keep that big tent running. The Chretien/Martin governments had immense infighting and it'll eventually repeat itself.

I guess another way to look at would be to say that maybe Carney doesn't want to deal with that and will eventually step away, although he's only 61 and could have a few more elections in him if he cares enough to continue on. He seems to like being PM despite the circumstances. To follow that line of thought, we'd need to consider who may be the next LPC leader after Carney, if there's such a conversation to be had.

I don't know if there's a scenario where the CPC formally withers away, nor one where they merge with PPC. The way that i've described the floor-crossing to my non-political friends is that typically there isn't this number of crossings unless a party is literally folding, but it remains to be seen what will become of the CPC once Poilievre is eventually no longer leader. As much as I'd like to see that future, I have to admit the perennial humiliation ritual of seeing Poilievre underachieve and fail is tough to pass up.

That said, social programs and austerity don't mix well, so I don't know how well taking on so many conservatives will work with voters work in the long run (especially Gladu), and I feel Carney's gonna crash hard once this extended honeymoon wears off. For the last couple of decades, the LPC has always seemed like the conservative party for people who don't want their neighbours to think they're d!cks; and now the party's asking the d!cks to ride shotgun.

My assumption is that Gladu isn't running again and she's switching to get handouts for Sarnia specifically. I'd be surprised if she actually campaigned under the LPC banner.

If it's a situation where they picked her crossing over others currently looking at it I like the intention. So far all of the floor crossers have been in toss-up ridings, but Gladu is the first to be in a firmly CPC riding. CPC staffers would have been waking up this AM with the thought that (almost) any CPC MP could cross if someone like Gladu in a riding like Gladu's is willing to do so. D'Entremont, Jeneroux, and Ma were all pretty standard crossers (as standard as they can be, anyway), but Idlout, Begum, and Gladu seem like firm shots across the bows of the other parties that the LPC is actually looking at taking in anyone with a voice and anyone willing to contribute to this government, even if their history is as onerous as Gladu's.