Admiral Beez
Superstar
Can we get on with the “Ring of Fire”? It’s been near twenty years and three Premiers since it was first discovered in 2007 and we don’t even have a road yet? In most other countries extraction would be well underway by now.
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- Thread starter animatronic
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thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
After a period of relative stability, the latest wave of Abacus Data’s Ontario tracking finds renewed movement in the province’s political landscape, driven by a notable drop in Progressive Conservative support, continued erosion in Premier Doug Ford’s personal standing, and a meaningful uptick for the NDP.
While the PCs remain in first place, their advantage has narrowed and the broader political environment appears more competitive than it did just a few weeks ago.
PC Support Falls, NDP Rises
Among committed voters, the Progressive Conservatives now stand at 39%, down 5 points since March and marking their lowest level of support in this tracking series since May 2024.
The Ontario Liberals are at 31%, down 1, while the NDP has risen to 21%, up 5, representing its strongest showing in recent waves. The Greens hold at 5% and 5% would support another party.
The PC lead over the Liberals now stands at 8 points, down from 12 points in the previous wave and down from 21-points earlier this year.
This five-point drop for the PCs, combined with a five-point increase for the NDP, represents the most significant shift in the competitive landscape in several months. The rise in NDP support may reflect increased attention following the recent federal NDP leadership convention, potentially creating a short-term halo effect for the provincial party.
Regional and Demographic Patterns
Regionally, the PCs continue to lead across most parts of Ontario but with softer margins. They are at 37% in Toronto, 40% in the GTHA, 36% in Southwestern Ontario, and 43% in Eastern Ontario.
The Liberals remain competitive in urban regions, particularly in Toronto, while the NDP is now consistently above 20% across multiple regions, suggesting a broader base of support than in earlier waves.
Age patterns remain consistent with previous tracking. The PCs perform strongest among older voters, while younger voters are more divided between the Liberals and the NDP, with the NDP now more competitive among voters under 45 than it has been in recent months.
Ford Government Approval Remains Negative
Approval of the Ford government remains in negative territory and shows little sign of recovery.
Currently, 35% approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government while 40% disapprove, producing a net approval score of -5.
These numbers are largely unchanged from the previous wave but remain well below levels typically associated with strong incumbent governments.
Ford’s Personal Numbers Continue to Erode
Doug Ford’s personal image has deteriorated further in this wave.
He now has 33% positive and 41% negative impressions, giving him a net score of -8, a decline from the previous wave.
By comparison, Marit Stiles continues to hold a net positive impression at +6, while Mike Schreiner is also in positive territory at +2.
Ford remains the only leader with a net negative image, and the gap between his personal standing and that of his competitors continues to widen.
Preferred Premier
Doug Ford remains the preferred choice for Premier at 34%, but his support has softened.
Marit Stiles is second at 18%, followed by John Fraser at 8% and Mike Schreiner at 6%. Notably, 34% of Ontarians say they do not know who they would prefer as Premier, underscoring a high level of openness in the electorate.
Desire for Change Continues to Rise
The appetite for change in Ontario continues to intensify.
A majority of Ontarians, 51%, now say it is definitely time for a change in government, the highest level recorded in this tracking series. Another 19% say it would be nice to change the government.
Combined, 70% of Ontarians express at least some desire for change, compared with a much smaller share who would prefer to see the PCs re-elected.
This represents a continuation of a steady upward trend in desire for change observed over the past several months and reinforces the increasingly competitive environment facing the government.
The Upshot
This latest wave marks a clear shift away from the relative stability observed in March. The Progressive Conservatives remain in first place, but their support has dropped meaningfully and now sits at its lowest point in nearly a year. At the same time, Doug Ford’s personal numbers continue to deteriorate, with his net favourability declining further into negative territory.
The most notable movement is on the opposition side. While the Liberals remain in second place, the NDP has gained ground significantly, potentially benefiting from increased visibility following the recent federal leadership convention. Whether this represents a temporary bump or a more durable shift remains to be seen. At the same time, the broader political environment continues to tilt toward change. A growing majority of Ontarians now believe it is time for a new government, and the share who feel strongly about that has reached a new high. Recent developments may also be contributing to this softer environment for the government. High-profile policy discussions, including the proposal to expand Toronto Island Airport and the release of the provincial budget, appear—at least for now—not to be improving the government’s standing. In addition, our own polling finds widespread opposition to proposed changes to freedom of information rules, suggesting these debates may be reinforcing existing concerns rather than shifting opinion in the government’s favour. For the PCs, the warning signs are becoming more pronounced. Their electoral coalition remains efficient, but it is softening, and their leader’s personal brand is weakening. For the opposition, the opportunity is expanding but remains divided. The Liberals continue to be seen as the primary alternative, but the NDP’s resurgence suggests the dynamics on the centre-left are becoming more fluid. Taken together, these results point to a more competitive and less predictable political environment than at any point in the past several months.
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
Ontario Budget Draws Muted Response
Most Ontarians didn’t notice the recent budget, with mixed political signals for the Ontario PCs
innovativeresearch.ca
The Ontario PC Budget released on March 26th was hardly noticed by Ontarians, with only about one-third of Ontarians reporting having read, seen, or heard anything about it. This is a 7-point increase compared to the 2025 budget, but a far cry from the widespread interest of Premier Ford’s first budget in 2019, when 61% of Ontarians had read, seen, or heard something about it. Ironically, low awareness is good for the government. Those who have read, seen, or heard something about the budget aren’t very positive. The majority (52%) are dissatisfied with the budget, and 22% are very dissatisfied. Overall, the net satisfaction with the budget is 17 points lower than a year ago with the March 2025 budget.
The budget displaced OSAP cuts as the dominant response to open-ended questions in Ontario, but neither narrative helped the government. Prior to the budget, OSAP cuts dominated mentions (19% mention it, with a net impact of -66 on government favourability). The budget release took over as the most mentioned item following its release (22% mention it, with a net impact of -6 on government favourability). OSAP cuts remain the second most cited issue (15% with a net impact of -59). So, if the budget was received with faint attention and praise, how are the Premier and the Government doing? Here we see something of a ‘glass half full’ situation for the government. The Ontario PCs continue to maintain a large (15-point) lead over the Liberals, and Doug Ford remains the dominant on Best Premier (36%). However, there are some warning signs for the government. Government net approval decreased 4 points post-budget. If we zoom out a bit, the general trend in government approval has been a slow decline interrupted by a Trump rally during the first half of 2025. Ontarians are currently split on government approval. Given opponents are split between the NDP and Liberals, that is manageable for the PCs. There has also been an increase in time for a change. This is more worrisome for the PCs as time-for-a-change today at 64% is a little higher than it was just before the Wynne defeat. What is helping the PCs manage this trend is Ford’s brand as a change agent. There are still 43% who say for all their problems, the PCs are still best able to form government.The unknown in all this is the impact of the new Liberal leader. However, given that the contest will not end for another 9 months, leadership right now is more a referendum on the Premier rather than a contest among alternatives. The Premier’s numbers are split. A narrow plurality (40%) of Ontarians see Doug Ford unfavourably, and 1-in-4 very unfavourably, versus 38% favourable. We also see an uptick in those who are unaligned and neutral in their party identification or have a negative impression of Doug Ford, to 20%. A plurality of Ontarians (36%) still rate Ford as the best choice for Premier. However, the number of undecided voters has risen to 24% (up 4 points post-budget), which is a potentially complicating factor. What we have here is something of a paradox: steady or mildly improving numbers for the PC voting universe, but a decline in the government approval and other underlying numbers. Doug Ford’s personal political standing has been trending downwards, and there is a notable increase in undecided views on who would make the best premier. Is the glass half full or half empty for the Ontario PCs?
lenaitch
Senior Member
In fairness to the government (shudder), the RoF properties have gone through a number of owners, each with their own vision of how they should be developed. And as with all things northern, getting multiple FNTs onboard takes time. Once you sign on to 'free, prior and informed consent' everything has to happen through that filter.
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
I think a lot of us shrug at the governmental and especially financial mismanagement, along with the whiffs of corruption and 3P cronyism. I recently turned 55 and my own goals have shifted to preparing to retire in 2-5 years, and ensuring both my young adult children own housing. Once my family is financially and house secure, I’ll likely step away from any interest in what the government is doing beyond what noticeably impacts me directly.
I think a lot of Ontarians shrug and assume that we’re stuck with the Ford (or his OPC successor) government well into the 2030s. There’s no viable opposition, and the citizenry don’t seem to care.
Westey
Active Member
I think there is some type of weird contest were voters say they don't care how corrupt or immoral the governments is, they will continue to support them. Currently, the federal Liberal voters are beating the Provincial PC voters 4 to 3 and neither side is ready to blink.
thettctransitfanatic
Senior Member
Proposed Ontario school board changes coming April 13
“I’ll be introducing legislation on Monday,” Calandra told reporters at a news conference Friday.
He said he knows people are feeling “anxious” about possible changes and he wants to provide certainty. “Monday is the next step in how we ensure that our education system is focused on students, parents and supporting teachers and delivering a quality education,” Calandra said. Eight Ontario school boards are currently under provincially-appointed supervisors, with elected trustees suspended from their jobs. The province has indicated that significant changes are coming to school board governance and Premier Doug Ford has refused to say whether elected trustees will be on the ballot in municipal elections in October. While Calandra did not give specific details about what will be in the legislation, he indicated that more direct control will revert to the ministry.
“Monday is the next step in how we ensure that our education system is focused on students, parents and supporting teachers and delivering a quality education,” Calandra said.
Eight Ontario school boards are currently under provincially-appointed supervisors, with elected trustees suspended from their jobs.
The province has indicated that significant changes are coming to school board governance and Premier Doug Ford has refused to say whether elected trustees will be on the ballot in municipal elections in October.
While Calandra did not give specific details about what will be in the legislation, he indicated that more direct control will revert to the ministry.
“For 50 years, the Ministry of Education has felt that the best way to deal with things is to download to school boards that don’t have the ability or the capacity to deal with problems,” he said. “Monday is about bringing back that level of responsibility and leadership through the Ministry of Education.”
He made the comment while answering a question about violence in schools and said teachers should not have to deal with fights or weapons and bringing responsibility back to the ministry would help ensure “schools are safe.”
The suspended boards include the Toronto District School Board (TDSB), Peel District School Board (PDSB) and Toronto Catholic District School Board (TCDSB) – some of the largest school boards in the country.
Calandra suspended the trustees, citing a range of issues, including financial mismanagement, infighting and wasteful spending. He has also said the boards have a tendency to go outside their mandate, straying from a focus on student achievement.
Education advocates and critics have expressed concern that the changes take away parent input and make it easier for some students – particularly students with special needs – to fall through the cracks, with no elected representatives able to help advocate for them within the system.
Opposition parties have also pointed out that elected trustees have been replaced with hand-picked supervisors, earning as much as $350,000 a year, with no educational background.
Recently, parents and teachers have been taken aback by several surprise cuts made by supervisors – changes that normally would have been debated in open school board meetings with trustees. Those changes include a cut to international language and literacy programs at the TCDSB and a cut to fulltime teaching positions at the TDSB, particularly at model schools supporting disadvantaged communities.
Ontario education minister says ‘significant’ legislation on school board changes coming Monday
Ontario Education Minister Paul Calandra says the government will be introducing “significant” legislation on school board governance on April 13.“I’ll be introducing legislation on Monday,” Calandra told reporters at a news conference Friday.
He said he knows people are feeling “anxious” about possible changes and he wants to provide certainty. “Monday is the next step in how we ensure that our education system is focused on students, parents and supporting teachers and delivering a quality education,” Calandra said. Eight Ontario school boards are currently under provincially-appointed supervisors, with elected trustees suspended from their jobs. The province has indicated that significant changes are coming to school board governance and Premier Doug Ford has refused to say whether elected trustees will be on the ballot in municipal elections in October. While Calandra did not give specific details about what will be in the legislation, he indicated that more direct control will revert to the ministry.
“Monday is the next step in how we ensure that our education system is focused on students, parents and supporting teachers and delivering a quality education,” Calandra said.
Eight Ontario school boards are currently under provincially-appointed supervisors, with elected trustees suspended from their jobs.
The province has indicated that significant changes are coming to school board governance and Premier Doug Ford has refused to say whether elected trustees will be on the ballot in municipal elections in October.
While Calandra did not give specific details about what will be in the legislation, he indicated that more direct control will revert to the ministry.
“For 50 years, the Ministry of Education has felt that the best way to deal with things is to download to school boards that don’t have the ability or the capacity to deal with problems,” he said. “Monday is about bringing back that level of responsibility and leadership through the Ministry of Education.”
He made the comment while answering a question about violence in schools and said teachers should not have to deal with fights or weapons and bringing responsibility back to the ministry would help ensure “schools are safe.”
Critics concerned about representation
In the fall, the government passed legislation allowing the education minister to more easily seize control of school boards under a broader range of circumstances.The suspended boards include the Toronto District School Board (TDSB), Peel District School Board (PDSB) and Toronto Catholic District School Board (TCDSB) – some of the largest school boards in the country.
Calandra suspended the trustees, citing a range of issues, including financial mismanagement, infighting and wasteful spending. He has also said the boards have a tendency to go outside their mandate, straying from a focus on student achievement.
Education advocates and critics have expressed concern that the changes take away parent input and make it easier for some students – particularly students with special needs – to fall through the cracks, with no elected representatives able to help advocate for them within the system.
Opposition parties have also pointed out that elected trustees have been replaced with hand-picked supervisors, earning as much as $350,000 a year, with no educational background.
Recently, parents and teachers have been taken aback by several surprise cuts made by supervisors – changes that normally would have been debated in open school board meetings with trustees. Those changes include a cut to international language and literacy programs at the TCDSB and a cut to fulltime teaching positions at the TDSB, particularly at model schools supporting disadvantaged communities.
lenaitch
Senior Member
One announcement I heard was going from a 2-year/4 semester teaching program to 1-year/3semester, which is sort of a half reversal to what it was not that many years ago.
UtakataNoAnnex
Superstar
I am pretty sure they are far more interested in power, control and suppressing descent than making sure "our education system is focused on students, parents and supporting teachers and delivering a quality education." But okays, think of the children... /sigh
Monarch Butterfly
Superstar
When will we see framed (in gold?) portraits of Premier Doug Ford in classrooms?
Monarch Butterfly
Superstar
At least the Home Depot is open for Doug Ford today. That should keep him happy.