G
ganjavih
Guest
Miller leading in tight race for mayor
Poll shows Tory win possible in final sprint to end Support for
early leader Hall collapses to 11%
VANESSA LU
CITY HALL BUREAU CHIEF
David Miller is still in the lead on this crucial final weekend of the most exciting mayoral race in decades, but John Tory may be close enough to catch him, according to a Toronto Star poll released today.
"It's a really close race," said Andrew Sullivan of EKOS Research Associates, which conducted the poll for the Star.
"The signs would point to a Miller victory, though it's not a slam dunk."
Among voters who are decided or leaning, Miller has 44 per cent support, followed by Tory at 37 per cent. The poll's error margin is 4 percentage points. Support for Barbara Hall, who had enjoyed a huge lead until a month ago, has collapsed to 11 per cent. John Nunziata comes in at 5 per cent, followed by Tom Jakobek at 2 per cent.
The final poll results before Monday's vote follow a gruelling 10-month campaign marked by candidates announcing their policies on issues from litter to crime to integrity. They crisscrossed the city to meet with ratepayers' groups and delivered speeches to business audiences.
They sought out the diverse ethnic communities that make up Toronto, with regular stops at churches, temples, synagogues and mosques.
And to top it all off — the candidates met for at least 50 all-candidates' debates — on some occasions as many as three a day.
The marathon campaign has been tainted by mudslinging with negative attack ads, accusations of illegal fundraising and an allegation that one camp tried to get a candidate to quit the race.
The EKOS poll surveyed 612 eligible voters across the city on Wednesday and Thursday. It is considered accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Twenty-two per cent remain undecided, a drop from 48 per cent in the Star's Oct. 11 poll.
It's a tight contest, but Sullivan said Miller holds several advantages including firm support among voters aged 45 to 64, who are expected to turn out in high numbers, as well as strong support from those who say they are closely following the race.
Among voters 45 to 64, Miller has 49 per cent support compared with Tory's 34 per cent. Miller enjoys 50 per cent support from those closely watching the election compared with 40 per cent from Tory.
Tory enjoys strong support among seniors, a group that also votes regularly, and residents of Etobicoke.
Among homeowners, Miller, 44, and Tory, 49, are tied for support, with 42 per cent and 43 per cent respectively. Miller does much better among renters with 47 per cent compared with Tory's 29 per cent.
While renters, who make up half the city's households, traditionally turn out in fewer numbers at elections, even if only some vote, it could give Miller an edge.
The poll also asked voters about their top priority as they decide how to vote in this election.
Reducing road congestion and improving public transit come in on top at 26 per cent, followed by affordable housing at 19 per cent and protecting Toronto's environment at 14 per cent.
Balancing the municipal budget was 13 per cent, followed by dealing with municipal corruption at 9 per cent and garbage disposal at 8 per cent.
That may be bad news for Tory, who has made strong fiscal management at city hall the cornerstone of his campaign, often touting his experience in the business world running major corporations.
"It's not the important issue for voters," Sullivan said. "Barring a doom and gloom crisis, people will look at fiscal responsibility as a given for all candidates."
Miller has staked himself as a defender of public transit, affordable housing and the environment.
Last month, Miller scored a coup with a news conference at the waterfront with Robert Kennedy Jr., a prominent U.S. environmentalist, who warned airport expansion would spoil Toronto's waterfront.
In the few remaining days, the key for both Miller and Tory will be to avoid any gaffes.
"At this point, it's going to get down to a lot of mobilizing the vote for Monday," Sullivan said, noting advance polls indicate that turnout may be higher in this election.
Normally only about a third of eligible voters cast a ballot in municipal elections.
"They need to make sure that their teams do everything possible to get their vote. Neither one of them has a comfortable advantage that they can coast their way through," he said. "I don't think anyone will want a lot of extra time off this weekend to brush up on their victory speech. Now is not the time to let up, that's how close the margin is."
A candidate may choose to go on the attack in the final days, provided he has a significant issue that could make a difference. "But the question is at this stage of the campaign, is there that magic arrow in the quiver?" he said.
Sullivan added that it is questionable whether either man could make any substantial dent in the other's support, given that each has his own strong constituencies.
Miller's support is strongest in the former city of Toronto at 56 per cent, while Tory enjoys strong support in Etobicoke at 50 per cent. As well, Tory has the backing of 42 per cent of those who are university educated and 50 per cent of those living in households earning $80,000 or more a year.
Sullivan also questioned whether the two front-runners could try to bleed support from the other candidates, noting that Nunziata and Jakobek have only 7 per cent between them.
Much of the support for Hall, 57, has already evaporated and gone to Miller, he said.
"She went from front-runner to footnote in a matter of a few weeks," Sullivan said. "You have to cast your eyes back to Nortel stock in the dot-com crisis to find a more spectacular decline in fortunes."
But her fall cannot be linked to a particular misstep.
Miller has benefited from Hall's fall, becoming the progressive candidate. Sullivan credits part of his lead to his ability to separate himself from the pack early over the island airport bridge.
Miller is the only candidate who opposes construction of the bridge, and expansion of the airport, saying it runs counter to waterfront revitalization plans. He has said he believes his campaign has taken off because the airport issue symbolizes more than just the waterfront issue — it symbolizes an attitude about how business interests have prevailed over the public interest at city hall.
The poll also asked voters whether they would support cancelling the proposed bridge to island airport even if the city could face financial penalties. Thirty-nine support that, while 49 per cent oppose it, while 12 per cent said don't know or didn't answer.
Sullivan cautioned, though, that this does not mean voters support construction of the bridge, rather it offers their opinion on this facet of the issue.
When asked about tolling, an issue that emerged when Miller mused about that possibility if Queen's Park and Ottawa fail to deliver transit funding, a statement Tory tried to capitalize on, 60 per cent oppose it and only 35 per cent support it.
Among Miller supporters, 49 per cent oppose tolls on the Don Valley Parkway and Gardiner Expressway, while 79 per cent of Tory supporters oppose it.
When asked about building an incinerator at an industrial park within Toronto's borders, a Tory proposal that Miller has attacked, 52 per cent support the idea, while 39 per cent oppose it.
On the question of whether the city should invest significant resources into inspections of rental apartment buildings and make those results available to prospective tenants, 80 per cent favoured the idea, while only 16 per cent opposed it. The Star ran a three-part series last weekend, exposing the failures of the existing system, where inspections are not mandatory, and results are not publicly available.
Many voters, who took part in the poll, have already made up their minds.
Mike Wilson, 52, a retired Air Canada employee, said he voted for Tory in the advance polls because of his business experience.
"He's been very successful in what he does. I don't know if he can pull all the councillors together though," he said.
Wilson added that his vote was cancelled out at home because his wife voted for Miller.
Marc Lalonde, 28, said he's backing Miller for his stand to axe the bridge to island airport.
"I agree very much with his desire to have a waterfront that the city can enjoy, and that won't be possible with an increase in flights from the island," he said. "I wholeheartedly support David Miller and expect he will come through on this promise."
With files from Tracy Huffman
PETER POWER/TORONTO STAR
David Miller, front-runner in what has become a mayoral nail-biter, was guest on CBC Radio with Avril Benoit yesterday afternoon.
Poll shows Tory win possible in final sprint to end Support for
early leader Hall collapses to 11%
VANESSA LU
CITY HALL BUREAU CHIEF
David Miller is still in the lead on this crucial final weekend of the most exciting mayoral race in decades, but John Tory may be close enough to catch him, according to a Toronto Star poll released today.
"It's a really close race," said Andrew Sullivan of EKOS Research Associates, which conducted the poll for the Star.
"The signs would point to a Miller victory, though it's not a slam dunk."
Among voters who are decided or leaning, Miller has 44 per cent support, followed by Tory at 37 per cent. The poll's error margin is 4 percentage points. Support for Barbara Hall, who had enjoyed a huge lead until a month ago, has collapsed to 11 per cent. John Nunziata comes in at 5 per cent, followed by Tom Jakobek at 2 per cent.
The final poll results before Monday's vote follow a gruelling 10-month campaign marked by candidates announcing their policies on issues from litter to crime to integrity. They crisscrossed the city to meet with ratepayers' groups and delivered speeches to business audiences.
They sought out the diverse ethnic communities that make up Toronto, with regular stops at churches, temples, synagogues and mosques.
And to top it all off — the candidates met for at least 50 all-candidates' debates — on some occasions as many as three a day.
The marathon campaign has been tainted by mudslinging with negative attack ads, accusations of illegal fundraising and an allegation that one camp tried to get a candidate to quit the race.
The EKOS poll surveyed 612 eligible voters across the city on Wednesday and Thursday. It is considered accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Twenty-two per cent remain undecided, a drop from 48 per cent in the Star's Oct. 11 poll.
It's a tight contest, but Sullivan said Miller holds several advantages including firm support among voters aged 45 to 64, who are expected to turn out in high numbers, as well as strong support from those who say they are closely following the race.
Among voters 45 to 64, Miller has 49 per cent support compared with Tory's 34 per cent. Miller enjoys 50 per cent support from those closely watching the election compared with 40 per cent from Tory.
Tory enjoys strong support among seniors, a group that also votes regularly, and residents of Etobicoke.
Among homeowners, Miller, 44, and Tory, 49, are tied for support, with 42 per cent and 43 per cent respectively. Miller does much better among renters with 47 per cent compared with Tory's 29 per cent.
While renters, who make up half the city's households, traditionally turn out in fewer numbers at elections, even if only some vote, it could give Miller an edge.
The poll also asked voters about their top priority as they decide how to vote in this election.
Reducing road congestion and improving public transit come in on top at 26 per cent, followed by affordable housing at 19 per cent and protecting Toronto's environment at 14 per cent.
Balancing the municipal budget was 13 per cent, followed by dealing with municipal corruption at 9 per cent and garbage disposal at 8 per cent.
That may be bad news for Tory, who has made strong fiscal management at city hall the cornerstone of his campaign, often touting his experience in the business world running major corporations.
"It's not the important issue for voters," Sullivan said. "Barring a doom and gloom crisis, people will look at fiscal responsibility as a given for all candidates."
Miller has staked himself as a defender of public transit, affordable housing and the environment.
Last month, Miller scored a coup with a news conference at the waterfront with Robert Kennedy Jr., a prominent U.S. environmentalist, who warned airport expansion would spoil Toronto's waterfront.
In the few remaining days, the key for both Miller and Tory will be to avoid any gaffes.
"At this point, it's going to get down to a lot of mobilizing the vote for Monday," Sullivan said, noting advance polls indicate that turnout may be higher in this election.
Normally only about a third of eligible voters cast a ballot in municipal elections.
"They need to make sure that their teams do everything possible to get their vote. Neither one of them has a comfortable advantage that they can coast their way through," he said. "I don't think anyone will want a lot of extra time off this weekend to brush up on their victory speech. Now is not the time to let up, that's how close the margin is."
A candidate may choose to go on the attack in the final days, provided he has a significant issue that could make a difference. "But the question is at this stage of the campaign, is there that magic arrow in the quiver?" he said.
Sullivan added that it is questionable whether either man could make any substantial dent in the other's support, given that each has his own strong constituencies.
Miller's support is strongest in the former city of Toronto at 56 per cent, while Tory enjoys strong support in Etobicoke at 50 per cent. As well, Tory has the backing of 42 per cent of those who are university educated and 50 per cent of those living in households earning $80,000 or more a year.
Sullivan also questioned whether the two front-runners could try to bleed support from the other candidates, noting that Nunziata and Jakobek have only 7 per cent between them.
Much of the support for Hall, 57, has already evaporated and gone to Miller, he said.
"She went from front-runner to footnote in a matter of a few weeks," Sullivan said. "You have to cast your eyes back to Nortel stock in the dot-com crisis to find a more spectacular decline in fortunes."
But her fall cannot be linked to a particular misstep.
Miller has benefited from Hall's fall, becoming the progressive candidate. Sullivan credits part of his lead to his ability to separate himself from the pack early over the island airport bridge.
Miller is the only candidate who opposes construction of the bridge, and expansion of the airport, saying it runs counter to waterfront revitalization plans. He has said he believes his campaign has taken off because the airport issue symbolizes more than just the waterfront issue — it symbolizes an attitude about how business interests have prevailed over the public interest at city hall.
The poll also asked voters whether they would support cancelling the proposed bridge to island airport even if the city could face financial penalties. Thirty-nine support that, while 49 per cent oppose it, while 12 per cent said don't know or didn't answer.
Sullivan cautioned, though, that this does not mean voters support construction of the bridge, rather it offers their opinion on this facet of the issue.
When asked about tolling, an issue that emerged when Miller mused about that possibility if Queen's Park and Ottawa fail to deliver transit funding, a statement Tory tried to capitalize on, 60 per cent oppose it and only 35 per cent support it.
Among Miller supporters, 49 per cent oppose tolls on the Don Valley Parkway and Gardiner Expressway, while 79 per cent of Tory supporters oppose it.
When asked about building an incinerator at an industrial park within Toronto's borders, a Tory proposal that Miller has attacked, 52 per cent support the idea, while 39 per cent oppose it.
On the question of whether the city should invest significant resources into inspections of rental apartment buildings and make those results available to prospective tenants, 80 per cent favoured the idea, while only 16 per cent opposed it. The Star ran a three-part series last weekend, exposing the failures of the existing system, where inspections are not mandatory, and results are not publicly available.
Many voters, who took part in the poll, have already made up their minds.
Mike Wilson, 52, a retired Air Canada employee, said he voted for Tory in the advance polls because of his business experience.
"He's been very successful in what he does. I don't know if he can pull all the councillors together though," he said.
Wilson added that his vote was cancelled out at home because his wife voted for Miller.
Marc Lalonde, 28, said he's backing Miller for his stand to axe the bridge to island airport.
"I agree very much with his desire to have a waterfront that the city can enjoy, and that won't be possible with an increase in flights from the island," he said. "I wholeheartedly support David Miller and expect he will come through on this promise."
With files from Tracy Huffman
PETER POWER/TORONTO STAR
David Miller, front-runner in what has become a mayoral nail-biter, was guest on CBC Radio with Avril Benoit yesterday afternoon.