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Richard White

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This could very quickly get out of hand. Hopefully Russia is not so stupid. Using tactical nukes would force NATO's hand. Hopefully China can stay out of what comes next.

Putin knows that the Kremlin would be painted the moment he starts using nukes. Moscow would be turned into a crater.
 

afransen

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I worry that NATO responding with conventional strike will force Russia to respond with escalatory strikes on NATO countries, which will likely spiral to nuclear exchange unless the Russian leadership class find a way to push Putin down some stairs and wave the white flag.
 

Richard White

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I worry that NATO responding with conventional strike will force Russia to respond with escalatory strikes on NATO countries, which will likely spiral to nuclear exchange unless the Russian leadership class find a way to push Putin down some stairs and wave the white flag.

The moment Putin starts to use any sort of nuclear weapon they will lose all credibility in the eyes of China and the world. They would also find themselves isolated from pretty much every country in the world unlike anything we have seen since WW2.

I cannot see the Russian elite letting Putin remain in power if he fires off a nuke. They know that it would elicit a response from NATO and that China would abandon them.

They are not idiots. If Russia cannot beat Ukraine, they will not be a match for NATO and possibly China. They know that any invasion of Russia would end badly for them.
 

Bjays92

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The moment Putin starts to use any sort of nuclear weapon they will lose all credibility in the eyes of China and the world. They would also find themselves isolated from pretty much every country in the world unlike anything we have seen since WW2.

I cannot see the Russian elite letting Putin remain in power if he fires off a nuke. They know that it would elicit a response from NATO and that China would abandon them.

They are not idiots. If Russia cannot beat Ukraine, they will not be a match for NATO and possibly China. They know that any invasion of Russia would end badly for them.
You continue to underestimate the iron grip Putin has over the oligarchs.

The military may try to oust Putin for a number of reasons, but the so called Russian elite have only the power that has been gifted to them by Putin.
 

Richard White

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You continue to underestimate the iron grip Putin has over the oligarchs.

The military may try to oust Putin for a number of reasons, but the so called Russian elite have only the power that has been gifted to them by Putin.

Nobody would give up that much power without a fight. They would leech onto the person who can keep the status quo.

Putin is likely to have an accident if he even considers tanking Russias economy and isolating it.
 

Bjays92

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Putin is likely to have an accident if he even considers tanking Russias economy and isolating it.
I mean he already has, and it's the oligarchs getting suicided, not Putin. Anyone outside the state apparatus in Russia has virtually no power.
 

kEiThZ

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I worry that NATO responding with conventional strike will force Russia to respond with escalatory strikes on NATO countries,

I'm not worried about this. Most of his Army and a quarter of his navy is in Ukraine. They will be destroyed if he pops a nuke. His air force is too scared to fly in to Ukraine.. And you think they'll into NATO airspace? They won't even get withi.n 30-40 km of NATO airspace before they get missiles flying at them.

What they have left is their navy, cyber, unconventional forces and nukes. It's more likely we might see infrastructure attacks by subs or cyber attacks.

The real question is what' happens after we wipe out most of Russia's army and maybe a quarter of their navy. What happens when it's obvious Putin has lost and Russia is defenceless?
 

kEiThZ

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The moment Putin starts to use any sort of nuclear weapon they will lose all credibility in the eyes of China and the world. They would also find themselves isolated from pretty much every country in the world unlike anything we have seen since WW2.

I cannot see the Russian elite letting Putin remain in power if he fires off a nuke. They know that it would elicit a response from NATO and that China would abandon them.

They are not idiots. If Russia cannot beat Ukraine, they will not be a match for NATO and possibly China. They know that any invasion of Russia would end badly for them.
And yet that same elite let him invade Ukraine and hasn't managed to get him out of it.
 

Richard White

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The real question is what' happens after we wipe out most of Russia's army and maybe a quarter of their navy. What happens when it's obvious Putin has lost and Russia is defenceless?

I can see Putin commencing a full mobilization. He is not truly in danger until NATO is laying siege to Moscow, at that point I expect him to take a cyanide pill.

And yet that same elite let him invade Ukraine and hasn't managed to get him out of it.

True but the winds of change are blowing. At some point he may lean too far out a window.
 

Richard White

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For those wanting to see what Russia is like at the moment, a friend of mine does virtual tours from Moscow. Anna is your average Russian with a family of her own and is a professional tour guide in Moscow.

I find her tours to be very informative regarding the current situation. In the past couple weeks she did live tours of the Kremlin compound and Red Square as seen in the attached pictures.

Her tours can be found here: https://www.heygo.com/annamoscow

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lenaitch

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I think it's important on human level to understand the colonialist and imperialist mindset of Russians and now pervasive it is. Way too many people running around saying, it's just Putin and that we would feel sorry for the population.
I don't know enough of the history and cultures of the area to know whether the Russian culture is naturally nativist or her type of comment is a more recent result of a strategic campaign by the Putin regime of setting up others as the problem, danger, lesser, etc.
 

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