I can't help but wonder if in spring 2023, Ukraine would have had more success if they'd thrown everything at taking Melitopol before Russia could lay their minefields
I don't think that would have made an iota of difference, other than literally burning all of the Western equipment in one spot a few months earlier, given that:
- This section of the frontlines haven't moved at all since summer 2022
- Russia has long ago dug in and mined the area by 2023
- A lot of deliveries of Western equipment haven't even arrived yet
- Training of UAF on Western equipment hasn't completed yet
- Mass armor column assaults do not work on the 21st century battlefield given its saturation with cheap anti-armor capabilities and drone surveillance
What would have worked is if our western governments did not wait an entire year since the war began before even discussing the possibility of giving tanks to Ukraine. It they did not wait a year and a half before discussing the possibility of giving Ukraine outdated fighter jets. If the US didn't wait over 18 months before supplying Ukraine with a handful of badly needed ATACMS. What would have also worked is if the Western governments didn't force Ukraine to fight with one arm behind its back and not being able to strike Russian military targets with Western military aid in Russia proper.
If for the first year and a half our politicians didn't give lame excuses such as "Western tanks are too complicated for an average Ukrainian", "Training fighter pilots takes a long time", "Ukraine does not require long range precision strike capability", "What if Putin escalates?"
If our governments actually wanted Ukraine to win this war, they should have started training UAF on the western equipment in the spring of 2022, delivered tanks, rocket artillery and fighter jets by fall 2022 and Ukraine would have had enough resources to keep pushing the successes of Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, instead of stopping due to lack of munition and equipment, giving Russia time to regroup, dig in and mine. They could have captured Crimea and ended the war by now. Instead, the lack of leadership in our political leadership caused the impassable stalemate we see on the battlefield today. And given the depth and saturation of Russian defensive lines today, Ukraine will need to pay a much higher price than they ought to in order to break through at this point.